Refit after a week of new data

match flagged ← All logistic growth benchmarks

fit(history, { growth: "logistic", map: { warmStart } }) from warmStartParameters of a fit of the first 358 days, against fit(df, init=warm_start_params(m)). The 365 days with changing growth, fitted with L-BFGS. Timings compare the refit with a fresh fit.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v3/logistic-rate-changes.json: 365 history rows and 455 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.058 (0.039% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	9.4615	9.4483	0.013
2020-01-02	10.5085	10.4952	0.013
2020-01-03	10.9469	10.9334	0.013
2020-01-04	10.4420	10.4285	0.014
2020-01-05	9.5752	9.5617	0.014
2020-01-06	9.1991	9.1855	0.014
2020-01-07	9.6092	9.5956	0.014
2020-01-08	10.5808	10.5673	0.013
2020-01-09	11.6448	11.6313	0.014
2020-01-10	12.1004	12.0866	0.014
2020-01-11	11.6130	11.5992	0.014
2020-01-12	10.7639	10.7501	0.014
2020-01-13	10.4058	10.3920	0.014
2020-01-14	10.8341	10.8202	0.014
2020-01-15	11.8240	11.8104	0.014
2020-01-16	12.9067	12.8930	0.014
2020-01-17	13.3812	13.3673	0.014
2020-01-18	12.9130	12.8991	0.014
2020-01-19	12.0833	12.0694	0.014
2020-01-20	11.7448	11.7309	0.014
2020-01-21	12.1930	12.1791	0.014
2020-01-22	13.2031	13.1894	0.014
2020-01-23	14.3062	14.2924	0.014
2020-01-24	14.8013	14.7874	0.014
2020-01-25	14.3540	14.3401	0.014
2020-01-26	13.5455	13.5317	0.014
2020-01-27	13.2284	13.2146	0.014
2020-01-28	13.6983	13.6845	0.014
2020-01-29	14.7304	14.7168	0.014
2020-01-30	15.8557	15.8421	0.014
2020-01-31	16.3734	16.3596	0.014
2020-02-01	15.9488	15.9351	0.014
2020-02-02	15.1633	15.1497	0.014
2020-02-03	14.8696	14.8560	0.014
2020-02-04	15.3630	15.3495	0.014
2020-02-05	16.4190	16.4057	0.013
2020-02-06	17.5684	17.5552	0.013
2020-02-07	18.1105	18.0972	0.013
2020-02-08	17.7106	17.6974	0.013
2020-02-09	16.9501	16.9370	0.013
2020-02-10	16.6816	16.6685	0.013
2020-02-11	17.2006	17.1876	0.013
2020-02-12	18.2823	18.2696	0.013
2020-02-13	19.4579	19.4452	0.013
2020-02-14	20.0263	20.0136	0.013
2020-02-15	19.6531	19.6405	0.013
2020-02-16	18.9195	18.9071	0.012
2020-02-17	18.6782	18.6659	0.012
2020-02-18	19.2247	19.2126	0.012
2020-02-19	20.3342	20.3224	0.012
2020-02-20	21.5379	21.5262	0.012
2020-02-21	22.1347	22.1230	0.012
2020-02-22	21.7901	21.7785	0.012
2020-02-23	21.0854	21.0741	0.011
2020-02-24	20.8734	20.8622	0.011
2020-02-25	21.4494	21.4384	0.011
2020-02-26	22.5887	22.5781	0.011
2020-02-27	23.8224	23.8119	0.010
2020-02-28	24.4495	24.4391	0.010
2020-02-29	24.1355	24.1254	0.010
2020-03-01	23.4618	23.4519	0.0099
2020-03-02	23.2809	23.2712	0.0097
2020-03-03	23.8883	23.8788	0.0095
2020-03-04	25.0594	25.0503	0.0091
2020-03-05	26.3251	26.3162	0.0088
2020-03-06	26.9845	26.9757	0.0087
2020-03-07	26.7030	26.6946	0.0084
2020-03-08	26.0621	26.0540	0.0081
2020-03-09	25.9143	25.9064	0.0079
2020-03-10	26.5551	26.5475	0.0076
2020-03-11	27.7597	27.7526	0.0071
2020-03-12	29.0592	29.0524	0.0068
2020-03-13	29.7527	29.7461	0.0066
2020-03-14	29.5057	29.4994	0.0063
2020-03-15	28.8993	28.8934	0.0059
2020-03-16	28.7863	28.7808	0.0056
2020-03-17	29.4622	29.4570	0.0052
2020-03-18	30.7021	30.6975	0.0046
2020-03-19	32.0372	32.0329	0.0043
2020-03-20	32.7665	32.7624	0.0041
2020-03-21	32.5554	32.5517	0.0036
2020-03-22	31.9853	31.9820	0.0032
2020-03-23	31.9087	31.9059	0.0028
2020-03-24	32.6212	32.6188	0.0024
2020-03-25	33.8980	33.8962	0.0017
2020-03-26	35.2701	35.2688	0.0013
2020-03-27	36.0366	36.0356	0.0010
2020-03-28	35.8629	35.8624	0.00051
2020-03-29	35.3303	35.3303	1.9e-7
2020-03-30	35.2915	35.2920	0.00049
2020-03-31	36.0420	36.0429	0.00099
2020-04-01	37.3568	37.3585	0.0017
2020-04-02	38.7672	38.7694	0.0022
2020-04-03	39.5720	39.5746	0.0026
2020-04-04	39.4369	39.4400	0.0032
2020-04-05	38.9430	38.9467	0.0037
2020-04-06	38.9430	38.9473	0.0043
2020-04-07	39.7323	39.7372	0.0049
2020-04-08	41.0861	41.0918	0.0057
2020-04-09	42.5356	42.5418	0.0063
2020-04-10	43.3796	43.3864	0.0067
2020-04-11	43.2837	43.2911	0.0074
2020-04-12	42.8292	42.8372	0.0080
2020-04-13	42.8686	42.8772	0.0087
2020-04-14	43.6973	43.7066	0.0093
2020-04-15	45.0906	45.1008	0.010
2020-04-16	46.5795	46.5905	0.011
2020-04-17	47.4631	47.4746	0.012
2020-04-18	47.4067	47.4190	0.012
2020-04-19	46.9916	47.0047	0.013
2020-04-20	47.0704	47.0843	0.014
2020-04-21	47.9386	47.9533	0.015
2020-04-22	49.3714	49.3871	0.016
2020-04-23	50.8997	50.9162	0.016
2020-04-24	51.8226	51.8398	0.017
2020-04-25	51.8056	51.8236	0.018
2020-04-26	51.4297	51.4486	0.019
2020-04-27	51.4594	51.4814	0.022
2020-04-28	52.2770	52.3020	0.025
2020-04-29	53.6577	53.6860	0.028
2020-04-30	55.1325	55.1639	0.031
2020-05-01	56.0003	56.0348	0.034
2020-05-02	55.9267	55.9645	0.038
2020-05-03	55.4929	55.5339	0.041
2020-05-04	55.5514	55.5957	0.044
2020-05-05	56.3976	56.4453	0.048
2020-05-06	57.8069	57.8581	0.051
2020-05-07	59.3100	59.3647	0.055
2020-05-08	60.2062	60.2641	0.058
2020-05-09	59.8047	59.8566	0.052
2020-05-10	59.0396	59.0854	0.046
2020-05-11	58.7635	58.8032	0.040
2020-05-12	59.2719	59.3054	0.033
2020-05-13	60.3400	60.3675	0.027
2020-05-14	61.4987	61.5200	0.021
2020-05-15	62.0472	62.0620	0.015
2020-05-16	61.6508	61.6593	0.0085
2020-05-17	60.8908	60.8930	0.0022
2020-05-18	60.6198	60.6156	0.0042
2020-05-19	61.1332	61.1227	0.011
2020-05-20	62.2064	62.1895	0.017
2020-05-21	63.2918	63.2751	0.017
2020-05-22	63.7665	63.7499	0.017
2020-05-23	63.2960	63.2797	0.016
2020-05-24	62.4616	62.4455	0.016
2020-05-25	62.1159	62.0999	0.016
2020-05-26	62.5542	62.5384	0.016
2020-05-27	63.5518	63.5365	0.015
2020-05-28	64.6398	64.6246	0.015
2020-05-29	65.1171	65.1020	0.015
2020-05-30	64.6492	64.6343	0.015
2020-05-31	63.8173	63.8026	0.015
2020-06-01	63.4741	63.4596	0.014
2020-06-02	63.9150	63.9007	0.014
2020-06-03	64.9151	64.9013	0.014
2020-06-04	66.0056	65.9919	0.014
2020-06-05	66.4855	66.4718	0.014
2020-06-06	66.0201	66.0067	0.013
2020-06-07	65.1907	65.1776	0.013
2020-06-08	64.8500	64.8371	0.013
2020-06-09	65.2934	65.2807	0.013
2020-06-10	66.2961	66.2838	0.012
2020-06-11	67.3891	67.3770	0.012
2020-06-12	67.8714	67.8594	0.012
2020-06-13	67.4085	67.3967	0.012
2020-06-14	66.5817	66.5701	0.012
2020-06-15	66.2434	66.2321	0.011
2020-06-16	66.6893	66.6781	0.011
2020-06-17	67.6944	67.6837	0.011
2020-06-18	68.7899	68.7794	0.011
2020-06-19	69.2747	69.2642	0.010
2020-06-20	68.8142	68.8040	0.010
2020-06-21	67.9898	67.9799	0.010
2020-06-22	67.6541	67.6443	0.0097
2020-06-23	68.1023	68.0928	0.0095
2020-06-24	69.1099	69.1008	0.0091
2020-06-25	70.2078	70.1989	0.0089
2020-06-26	70.6950	70.6862	0.0088
2020-06-27	70.2370	70.2284	0.0086
2020-06-28	69.4150	69.4067	0.0083
2020-06-29	69.0816	69.0736	0.0081
2020-06-30	69.5323	69.5245	0.0078
2020-07-01	70.5423	70.5349	0.0074
2020-07-02	71.6426	71.6354	0.0072
2020-07-03	72.1322	72.1250	0.0071
2020-07-04	71.6765	71.6697	0.0069
2020-07-05	70.8569	70.8503	0.0066
2020-07-06	70.5259	70.5195	0.0064
2020-07-07	70.9789	70.9728	0.0061
2020-07-08	71.9913	71.9856	0.0057
2020-07-09	73.0939	73.0884	0.0055
2020-07-10	73.5858	73.5804	0.0054
2020-07-11	73.1325	73.1274	0.0051
2020-07-12	72.3152	72.3103	0.0049
2020-07-13	71.9865	71.9819	0.0046
2020-07-14	72.4419	72.4375	0.0044
2020-07-15	73.4565	73.4525	0.0039
2020-07-16	74.5614	74.5577	0.0037
2020-07-17	75.0556	75.0520	0.0036
2020-07-18	74.6046	74.6012	0.0034
2020-07-19	73.7896	73.7865	0.0031
2020-07-20	73.4632	73.4603	0.0028
2020-07-21	73.9208	73.9182	0.0026
2020-07-22	74.9377	74.9355	0.0021
2020-07-23	76.0448	76.0429	0.0019
2020-07-24	76.5413	76.5395	0.0018
2020-07-25	76.0925	76.0910	0.0016
2020-07-26	75.2797	75.2784	0.0013
2020-07-27	74.9555	74.9545	0.0010
2020-07-28	75.4153	75.4146	0.00078
2020-07-29	76.4344	76.4341	0.00032
2020-07-30	77.5439	77.5437	0.00020
2020-07-31	78.0427	78.0425	0.00022
2020-08-01	77.5962	77.5961	6.6e-5
2020-08-02	76.7857	76.7858	0.00010
2020-08-03	76.4638	76.4640	0.00024
2020-08-04	76.9259	76.9263	0.00037
2020-08-05	77.9473	77.9480	0.00072
2020-08-06	79.0589	79.0597	0.00083
2020-08-07	79.5598	79.5606	0.00082
2020-08-08	79.1155	79.1164	0.00098
2020-08-09	78.3071	78.3082	0.0011
2020-08-10	78.0236	78.0249	0.0013
2020-08-11	78.5242	78.5257	0.0015
2020-08-12	79.5841	79.5860	0.0019
2020-08-13	80.7344	80.7364	0.0020
2020-08-14	81.2741	81.2761	0.0020
2020-08-15	80.8686	80.8708	0.0022
2020-08-16	80.0991	80.1015	0.0024
2020-08-17	79.8183	79.8209	0.0026
2020-08-18	80.3216	80.3244	0.0028
2020-08-19	81.3843	81.3874	0.0031
2020-08-20	82.5372	82.5405	0.0033
2020-08-21	83.0796	83.0829	0.0033
2020-08-22	82.8399	82.8425	0.0026
2020-08-23	82.2369	82.2387	0.0018
2020-08-24	82.1230	82.1240	0.0010
2020-08-25	82.7937	82.7939	0.00026
2020-08-26	84.0242	84.0239	0.00032
2020-08-27	85.3456	85.3445	0.0011
2020-08-28	86.0568	86.0548	0.0021
2020-08-29	85.8233	85.8205	0.0028
2020-08-30	85.2263	85.2227	0.0036
2020-08-31	85.1184	85.1140	0.0044
2020-09-01	85.7950	85.7898	0.0052
2020-09-02	87.1856	87.1807	0.0049
2020-09-03	88.6675	88.6627	0.0048
2020-09-04	89.5398	89.5349	0.0049
2020-09-05	89.4678	89.4630	0.0048
2020-09-06	89.0328	89.0281	0.0047
2020-09-07	89.0873	89.0827	0.0046
2020-09-08	89.9267	89.9222	0.0045
2020-09-09	91.3263	91.3221	0.0042
2020-09-10	92.8170	92.8128	0.0042
2020-09-11	93.6978	93.6936	0.0042
2020-09-12	93.6342	93.6300	0.0041
2020-09-13	93.2073	93.2033	0.0040
2020-09-14	93.2697	93.2657	0.0039
2020-09-15	94.1168	94.1129	0.0038
2020-09-16	95.5238	95.5203	0.0035
2020-09-17	97.0217	97.0182	0.0035
2020-09-18	97.9095	97.9060	0.0035
2020-09-19	97.8526	97.8492	0.0034
2020-09-20	97.4322	97.4289	0.0033
2020-09-21	97.5008	97.4976	0.0032
2020-09-22	98.3540	98.3509	0.0031
2020-09-23	99.7668	99.7640	0.0028
2020-09-24	101.2702	101.2675	0.0027
2020-09-25	102.1633	102.1606	0.0028
2020-09-26	102.1115	102.1088	0.0027
2020-09-27	101.6959	101.6933	0.0026
2020-09-28	101.7691	101.7667	0.0025
2020-09-29	102.6266	102.6242	0.0024
2020-09-30	104.0435	104.0414	0.0021
2020-10-01	105.5508	105.5488	0.0020
2020-10-02	106.4475	106.4455	0.0020
2020-10-03	106.3990	106.3971	0.0019
2020-10-04	105.9865	105.9847	0.0018
2020-10-05	106.0626	106.0609	0.0017
2020-10-06	106.9227	106.9210	0.0016
2020-10-07	108.3419	108.3406	0.0013
2020-10-08	109.8513	109.8501	0.0012
2020-10-09	110.7498	110.7486	0.0013
2020-10-10	110.7029	110.7018	0.0012
2020-10-11	110.2918	110.2907	0.0010
2020-10-12	110.3690	110.3680	0.00094
2020-10-13	111.2299	111.2290	0.00086
2020-10-14	112.6497	112.6492	0.00055
2020-10-15	114.1594	114.1590	0.00047
2020-10-16	115.0581	115.0575	0.00053
2020-10-17	115.0110	115.0106	0.00042
2020-10-18	114.5994	114.5992	0.00029
2020-10-19	114.6760	114.6758	0.00019
2020-10-20	115.5360	115.5359	9.8e-5
2020-10-21	116.9546	116.9548	0.00020
2020-10-22	118.4630	118.4632	0.00028
2020-10-23	119.3599	119.3602	0.00023
2020-10-24	119.3110	119.3113	0.00034
2020-10-25	118.8973	118.8977	0.00047
2020-10-26	118.9714	118.9719	0.00057
2020-10-27	119.8287	119.8294	0.00065
2020-10-28	121.2445	121.2455	0.00095
2020-10-29	122.7497	122.7507	0.0010
2020-10-30	123.6433	123.6443	0.00097
2020-10-31	123.5907	123.5918	0.0011
2020-11-01	123.1732	123.1744	0.0012
2020-11-02	123.2432	123.2445	0.0013
2020-11-03	124.0962	124.0976	0.0014
2020-11-04	125.5074	125.5091	0.0017
2020-11-05	127.0078	127.0096	0.0018
2020-11-06	127.8964	127.8981	0.0017
2020-11-07	127.8385	127.8404	0.0018
2020-11-08	127.4155	127.4174	0.0019
2020-11-09	127.4798	127.4818	0.0020
2020-11-10	128.3269	128.3290	0.0021
2020-11-11	129.7319	129.7343	0.0024
2020-11-12	131.2259	131.2283	0.0025
2020-11-13	132.1078	132.1102	0.0024
2020-11-14	132.0431	132.0456	0.0025
2020-11-15	131.6130	131.6156	0.0026
2020-11-16	131.6700	131.6727	0.0027
2020-11-17	132.5095	132.5123	0.0028
2020-11-18	133.9068	133.9099	0.0031
2020-11-19	135.3929	135.3961	0.0032
2020-11-20	136.2667	136.2698	0.0031
2020-11-21	136.1936	136.1968	0.0032
2020-11-22	135.7549	135.7582	0.0033
2020-11-23	135.8032	135.8066	0.0034
2020-11-24	136.6338	136.6372	0.0035
2020-11-25	138.0219	138.0257	0.0037
2020-11-26	139.4986	139.5024	0.0038
2020-11-27	140.3629	140.3666	0.0037
2020-11-28	140.2800	140.2839	0.0038
2020-11-29	139.8314	139.8354	0.0039
2020-11-30	139.8695	139.8736	0.0040
2020-12-01	140.6898	140.6939	0.0041
2020-12-02	142.0675	142.0719	0.0044
2020-12-03	143.5335	143.5379	0.0044
2020-12-04	144.3869	144.3912	0.0043
2020-12-05	144.2930	144.2975	0.0044
2020-12-06	143.8332	143.8378	0.0045
2020-12-07	143.8600	143.8646	0.0046
2020-12-08	144.6687	144.6734	0.0047
2020-12-09	146.0347	146.0396	0.0049
2020-12-10	147.4888	147.4938	0.0050
2020-12-11	148.3302	148.3351	0.0049
2020-12-12	148.2242	148.2291	0.0050
2020-12-13	147.7520	147.7571	0.0051
2020-12-14	147.7662	147.7714	0.0052
2020-12-15	148.5623	148.5675	0.0052
2020-12-16	149.9155	149.9210	0.0055
2020-12-17	151.3567	151.3622	0.0055
2020-12-18	152.1850	152.1904	0.0054
2020-12-19	152.0658	152.0713	0.0055
2020-12-20	151.5802	151.5858	0.0056
2020-12-21	151.5810	151.5867	0.0057
2020-12-22	152.3635	152.3692	0.0057
2020-12-23	153.7029	153.7089	0.0060
2020-12-24	155.1303	155.1363	0.0060
2020-12-25	155.9446	155.9505	0.0059
2020-12-26	155.8112	155.8172	0.0060
2020-12-27	155.3115	155.3175	0.0061
2020-12-28	155.2979	155.3040	0.0061
2020-12-29	156.0659	156.0721	0.0062
2020-12-30	157.3908	157.3972	0.0064
2020-12-31	158.8035	158.8099	0.0064
2021-01-01	159.6030	159.6093	0.0063
2021-01-02	159.4548	159.4612	0.0064
2021-01-03	158.9401	158.9465	0.0065
2021-01-04	158.9114	158.9179	0.0065
2021-01-05	159.6643	159.6709	0.0066
2021-01-06	160.9739	160.9807	0.0068
2021-01-07	162.3713	162.3781	0.0068
2021-01-08	163.1554	163.1621	0.0067
2021-01-09	162.9917	162.9985	0.0068
2021-01-10	162.4614	162.4682	0.0068
2021-01-11	162.4171	162.4240	0.0069
2021-01-12	163.1543	163.1612	0.0069
2021-01-13	164.4481	164.4553	0.0071
2021-01-14	165.8296	165.8368	0.0072
2021-01-15	166.5978	166.6049	0.0070
2021-01-16	166.4181	166.4252	0.0071
2021-01-17	165.8718	165.8789	0.0072
2021-01-18	165.8114	165.8186	0.0072
2021-01-19	166.5324	166.5396	0.0072
2021-01-20	167.8100	167.8175	0.0074
2021-01-21	169.1753	169.1827	0.0074
2021-01-22	169.9272	169.9345	0.0073
2021-01-23	169.7311	169.7385	0.0074
2021-01-24	169.1684	169.1758	0.0074
2021-01-25	169.0916	169.0990	0.0074
2021-01-26	169.7961	169.8036	0.0075
2021-01-27	171.0573	171.0650	0.0077
2021-01-28	172.4060	172.4137	0.0077
2021-01-29	173.1413	173.1489	0.0076
2021-01-30	172.9287	172.9363	0.0076
2021-01-31	172.3493	172.3570	0.0076
2021-02-01	172.2559	172.2635	0.0077
2021-02-02	172.9438	172.9514	0.0077
2021-02-03	174.1882	174.1961	0.0079
2021-02-04	175.5202	175.5281	0.0079
2021-02-05	176.2389	176.2466	0.0077
2021-02-06	176.0095	176.0173	0.0078
2021-02-07	175.4134	175.4213	0.0078
2021-02-08	175.3033	175.3111	0.0078
2021-02-09	175.9744	175.9822	0.0078
2021-02-10	177.2021	177.2102	0.0080
2021-02-11	178.5174	178.5254	0.0080
2021-02-12	179.2193	179.2272	0.0079
2021-02-13	178.9732	178.9811	0.0079
2021-02-14	178.3604	178.3683	0.0079
2021-02-15	178.2335	178.2414	0.0080
2021-02-16	178.8879	178.8959	0.0079
2021-02-17	180.0989	180.1071	0.0082
2021-02-18	181.3975	181.4056	0.0081
2021-02-19	182.0827	182.0907	0.0080
2021-02-20	181.8199	181.8279	0.0080
2021-02-21	181.1905	181.1985	0.0080
2021-02-22	181.0470	181.0550	0.0080
2021-02-23	181.6848	181.6928	0.0080
2021-02-24	182.8792	182.8874	0.0082
2021-02-25	184.1612	184.1694	0.0082
2021-02-26	184.8299	184.8380	0.0080
2021-02-27	184.5507	184.5587	0.0081
2021-02-28	183.9047	183.9128	0.0081
2021-03-01	183.7448	183.7529	0.0081
2021-03-02	184.3662	184.3743	0.0081
2021-03-03	185.5443	185.5525	0.0083
2021-03-04	186.8099	186.8182	0.0082
2021-03-05	187.4623	187.4704	0.0081
2021-03-06	187.1668	187.1749	0.0081
2021-03-07	186.5047	186.5128	0.0081
2021-03-08	186.3285	186.3366	0.0081
2021-03-09	186.9338	186.9419	0.0081
2021-03-10	188.0958	188.1040	0.0083
2021-03-11	189.3454	189.3536	0.0082
2021-03-12	189.9818	189.9898	0.0081
2021-03-13	189.6703	189.6784	0.0081
2021-03-14	188.9923	189.0003	0.0081
2021-03-15	188.8003	188.8083	0.0081
2021-03-16	189.3898	189.3978	0.0080
2021-03-17	190.5360	190.5442	0.0082
2021-03-18	191.7699	191.7781	0.0082
2021-03-19	192.3907	192.3987	0.0080
2021-03-20	192.0636	192.0716	0.0080
2021-03-21	191.3700	191.3781	0.0080
2021-03-22	191.1626	191.1706	0.0080
2021-03-23	191.7367	191.7446	0.0080
2021-03-24	192.8675	192.8757	0.0082
2021-03-25	194.0862	194.0943	0.0081
2021-03-26	194.6917	194.6996	0.0079
2021-03-27	194.3495	194.3574	0.0079
2021-03-28	193.6408	193.6487	0.0079
2021-03-29	193.4183	193.4262	0.0079
2021-03-30	193.9774	193.9853	0.0079

Internal fit differences

The forecasts match, so this case passes. Both libraries search for the best-fitting parameters and stop when they are close enough. On this input they stopped at slightly different points, so these internal numbers differ by more than the threshold where we take a closer look.

Check	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Threshold
Fitting objective (lower is a better fit)	-1687.6409	-1688.4758	0.01
warm-start-parameters	-2.6234	-2.6890	0.01

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Fit	131 ms	111 ms	1.2× slower
Refit from an earlier fit	117 ms	94.2 ms	1.2× slower

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  },
  "warmStart": {
    "baseRows": 358,
    "investigateParameterAbsolute": 0.01
  }
}