Defaults, ranges with changing growth, second seed

match flagged ← All logistic growth benchmarks

The same ranges from a different random seed, so one lucky draw cannot pass the case.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v3/logistic-rate-changes.json: 365 history rows and 455 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.013 (0.0086% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	9.4222	9.4155	0.0067
2020-01-02	10.4696	10.4628	0.0068
2020-01-03	10.9085	10.9017	0.0069
2020-01-04	10.4027	10.3958	0.0069
2020-01-05	9.5349	9.5280	0.0070
2020-01-06	9.1588	9.1518	0.0070
2020-01-07	9.5689	9.5618	0.0071
2020-01-08	10.5415	10.5347	0.0068
2020-01-09	11.6059	11.5990	0.0069
2020-01-10	12.0622	12.0553	0.0069
2020-01-11	11.5739	11.5669	0.0070
2020-01-12	10.7240	10.7169	0.0070
2020-01-13	10.3658	10.3588	0.0071
2020-01-14	10.7942	10.7871	0.0071
2020-01-15	11.7853	11.7784	0.0068
2020-01-16	12.8685	12.8616	0.0069
2020-01-17	13.3438	13.3368	0.0070
2020-01-18	12.8747	12.8677	0.0070
2020-01-19	12.0442	12.0372	0.0070
2020-01-20	11.7059	11.6988	0.0071
2020-01-21	12.1542	12.1471	0.0071
2020-01-22	13.1655	13.1587	0.0068
2020-01-23	14.2693	14.2624	0.0068
2020-01-24	14.7653	14.7584	0.0069
2020-01-25	14.3173	14.3104	0.0069
2020-01-26	13.5081	13.5012	0.0069
2020-01-27	13.1913	13.1843	0.0069
2020-01-28	13.6614	13.6544	0.0070
2020-01-29	14.6948	14.6882	0.0066
2020-01-30	15.8209	15.8142	0.0067
2020-01-31	16.3396	16.3329	0.0067
2020-02-01	15.9144	15.9077	0.0067
2020-02-02	15.1284	15.1217	0.0067
2020-02-03	14.8350	14.8283	0.0067
2020-02-04	15.3289	15.3222	0.0067
2020-02-05	16.3863	16.3799	0.0064
2020-02-06	17.5366	17.5303	0.0064
2020-02-07	18.0799	18.0735	0.0064
2020-02-08	17.6796	17.6732	0.0064
2020-02-09	16.9186	16.9123	0.0063
2020-02-10	16.6507	16.6444	0.0063
2020-02-11	17.1702	17.1639	0.0063
2020-02-12	18.2536	18.2477	0.0059
2020-02-13	19.4302	19.4243	0.0059
2020-02-14	20.0000	19.9941	0.0059
2020-02-15	19.6265	19.6206	0.0059
2020-02-16	18.8927	18.8869	0.0058
2020-02-17	18.6521	18.6463	0.0058
2020-02-18	19.1993	19.1936	0.0057
2020-02-19	20.3107	20.3054	0.0053
2020-02-20	21.5156	21.5103	0.0053
2020-02-21	22.1139	22.1086	0.0053
2020-02-22	21.7692	21.7641	0.0052
2020-02-23	21.0646	21.0595	0.0051
2020-02-24	20.8534	20.8484	0.0050
2020-02-25	21.4303	21.4254	0.0050
2020-02-26	22.5717	22.5671	0.0046
2020-02-27	23.8068	23.8023	0.0045
2020-02-28	24.4357	24.4313	0.0044
2020-02-29	24.1219	24.1176	0.0043
2020-03-01	23.4483	23.4441	0.0042
2020-03-02	23.2685	23.2644	0.0041
2020-03-03	23.8771	23.8731	0.0040
2020-03-04	25.0504	25.0469	0.0036
2020-03-05	26.3178	26.3143	0.0034
2020-03-06	26.9792	26.9758	0.0033
2020-03-07	26.6981	26.6949	0.0032
2020-03-08	26.0576	26.0546	0.0031
2020-03-09	25.9112	25.9082	0.0029
2020-03-10	26.5533	26.5506	0.0028
2020-03-11	27.7605	27.7582	0.0023
2020-03-12	29.0619	29.0598	0.0022
2020-03-13	29.7577	29.7556	0.0020
2020-03-14	29.5112	29.5094	0.0019
2020-03-15	28.9056	28.9039	0.0017
2020-03-16	28.7942	28.7927	0.0015
2020-03-17	29.4717	29.4704	0.0013
2020-03-18	30.7144	30.7136	0.00081
2020-03-19	32.0517	32.0511	0.00063
2020-03-20	32.7835	32.7830	0.00044
2020-03-21	32.5733	32.5731	0.00023
2020-03-22	32.0041	32.0041	1.3e-5
2020-03-23	31.9295	31.9297	0.00020
2020-03-24	32.6439	32.6443	0.00042
2020-03-25	33.9238	33.9247	0.00098
2020-03-26	35.2983	35.2995	0.0012
2020-03-27	36.0676	36.0690	0.0014
2020-03-28	35.8952	35.8968	0.0017
2020-03-29	35.3639	35.3658	0.0019
2020-03-30	35.3273	35.3295	0.0022
2020-03-31	36.0799	36.0824	0.0025
2020-04-01	37.3981	37.4012	0.0031
2020-04-02	38.8113	38.8146	0.0033
2020-04-03	39.6192	39.6228	0.0036
2020-04-04	39.4856	39.4895	0.0039
2020-04-05	38.9932	38.9974	0.0042
2020-04-06	38.9957	39.0002	0.0045
2020-04-07	39.7875	39.7923	0.0048
2020-04-08	41.1450	41.1505	0.0054
2020-04-09	42.5976	42.6033	0.0058
2020-04-10	43.4450	43.4511	0.0061
2020-04-11	43.3509	43.3573	0.0064
2020-04-12	42.8982	42.9050	0.0068
2020-04-13	42.9404	42.9475	0.0071
2020-04-14	43.7719	43.7794	0.0075
2020-04-15	45.1692	45.1774	0.0081
2020-04-16	46.6616	46.6701	0.0085
2020-04-17	47.5488	47.5577	0.0089
2020-04-18	47.4946	47.5038	0.0092
2020-04-19	47.0817	47.0913	0.0096
2020-04-20	47.1637	47.1737	0.010
2020-04-21	48.0351	48.0455	0.010
2020-04-22	49.4722	49.4833	0.011
2020-04-23	51.0042	51.0158	0.012
2020-04-24	51.9311	51.9431	0.012
2020-04-25	51.9165	51.9289	0.012
2020-04-26	51.5431	51.5559	0.013
2020-04-27	51.5515	51.5638	0.012
2020-04-28	52.3474	52.3591	0.012
2020-04-29	53.7072	53.7187	0.011
2020-04-30	55.1601	55.1710	0.011
2020-05-01	56.0061	56.0164	0.010
2020-05-02	55.9087	55.9184	0.0097
2020-05-03	55.4507	55.4598	0.0091
2020-05-04	55.4857	55.4941	0.0085
2020-05-05	56.3081	56.3160	0.0079
2020-05-06	57.6943	57.7018	0.0076
2020-05-07	59.1735	59.1804	0.0069
2020-05-08	60.0456	60.0519	0.0063
2020-05-09	59.6557	59.6611	0.0054
2020-05-10	58.9023	58.9068	0.0045
2020-05-11	58.6389	58.6425	0.0036
2020-05-12	59.1600	59.1627	0.0027
2020-05-13	60.2419	60.2440	0.0021
2020-05-14	61.4140	61.4152	0.0012
2020-05-15	61.9761	61.9764	0.00024
2020-05-16	61.5918	61.5912	0.00067
2020-05-17	60.8440	60.8424	0.0016
2020-05-18	60.5862	60.5837	0.0025
2020-05-19	61.1129	61.1094	0.0035
2020-05-20	62.2003	62.1963	0.0041
2020-05-21	63.2865	63.2824	0.0041
2020-05-22	63.7623	63.7582	0.0041
2020-05-23	63.2912	63.2872	0.0040
2020-05-24	62.4562	62.4522	0.0040
2020-05-25	62.1108	62.1068	0.0040
2020-05-26	62.5494	62.5455	0.0039
2020-05-27	63.5485	63.5449	0.0036
2020-05-28	64.6372	64.6336	0.0036
2020-05-29	65.1155	65.1120	0.0036
2020-05-30	64.6470	64.6435	0.0035
2020-05-31	63.8146	63.8111	0.0035
2020-06-01	63.4717	63.4682	0.0035
2020-06-02	63.9129	63.9095	0.0034
2020-06-03	64.9145	64.9114	0.0031
2020-06-04	66.0058	66.0027	0.0031
2020-06-05	66.4866	66.4836	0.0031
2020-06-06	66.0207	66.0177	0.0030
2020-06-07	65.1908	65.1878	0.0030
2020-06-08	64.8504	64.8475	0.0030
2020-06-09	65.2941	65.2912	0.0029
2020-06-10	66.2982	66.2957	0.0026
2020-06-11	67.3920	67.3894	0.0026
2020-06-12	67.8754	67.8729	0.0025
2020-06-13	67.4122	67.4094	0.0028
2020-06-14	66.5850	66.5821	0.0030
2020-06-15	66.2474	66.2442	0.0032
2020-06-16	66.6939	66.6905	0.0034
2020-06-17	67.7007	67.6974	0.0033
2020-06-18	68.7972	68.7937	0.0036
2020-06-19	69.2833	69.2795	0.0038
2020-06-20	68.8226	68.8186	0.0040
2020-06-21	67.9979	67.9937	0.0042
2020-06-22	67.6627	67.6583	0.0045
2020-06-23	68.1117	68.1070	0.0047
2020-06-24	69.1209	69.1163	0.0046
2020-06-25	70.2199	70.2152	0.0047
2020-06-26	70.7085	70.7037	0.0048
2020-06-27	70.2502	70.2454	0.0048
2020-06-28	69.4279	69.4231	0.0049
2020-06-29	69.0952	69.0903	0.0049
2020-06-30	69.5465	69.5415	0.0050
2020-07-01	70.5582	70.5535	0.0047
2020-07-02	71.6596	71.6548	0.0048
2020-07-03	72.1505	72.1456	0.0049
2020-07-04	71.6946	71.6897	0.0050
2020-07-05	70.8748	70.8698	0.0050
2020-07-06	70.5444	70.5393	0.0051
2020-07-07	70.9981	70.9930	0.0051
2020-07-08	72.0122	72.0073	0.0049
2020-07-09	73.1159	73.1109	0.0050
2020-07-10	73.6092	73.6042	0.0050
2020-07-11	73.1557	73.1506	0.0051
2020-07-12	72.3381	72.3330	0.0052
2020-07-13	72.0101	72.0049	0.0052
2020-07-14	72.4662	72.4609	0.0053
2020-07-15	73.4825	73.4775	0.0050
2020-07-16	74.5886	74.5835	0.0051
2020-07-17	75.0842	75.0790	0.0052
2020-07-18	74.6330	74.6277	0.0054
2020-07-19	73.8179	73.8124	0.0055
2020-07-20	73.4922	73.4866	0.0056
2020-07-21	73.9506	73.9448	0.0058
2020-07-22	74.9694	74.9637	0.0056
2020-07-23	76.0777	76.0719	0.0058
2020-07-24	76.5757	76.5697	0.0060
2020-07-25	76.1268	76.1207	0.0061
2020-07-26	75.3139	75.3076	0.0063
2020-07-27	74.9905	74.9840	0.0064
2020-07-28	75.4511	75.4445	0.0066
2020-07-29	76.4720	76.4656	0.0064
2020-07-30	77.5827	77.5761	0.0066
2020-07-31	78.0829	78.0761	0.0068
2020-08-01	77.6362	77.6292	0.0070
2020-08-02	76.8255	76.8183	0.0072
2020-08-03	76.5043	76.4969	0.0074
2020-08-04	76.9672	76.9596	0.0076
2020-08-05	77.9903	77.9829	0.0074
2020-08-06	79.1031	79.0955	0.0076
2020-08-07	79.6055	79.5976	0.0078
2020-08-08	79.1609	79.1529	0.0080
2020-08-09	78.3524	78.3441	0.0082
2020-08-10	78.0466	78.0390	0.0076
2020-08-11	78.5250	78.5179	0.0071
2020-08-12	79.5637	79.5575	0.0062
2020-08-13	80.6920	80.6864	0.0056
2020-08-14	81.2099	81.2049	0.0050
2020-08-15	80.7810	80.7766	0.0044
2020-08-16	79.9880	79.9842	0.0038
2020-08-17	79.6846	79.6814	0.0032
2020-08-18	80.1652	80.1626	0.0026
2020-08-19	81.2062	81.2045	0.0017
2020-08-20	82.3368	82.3357	0.0011
2020-08-21	82.8570	82.8564	0.00056
2020-08-22	82.6387	82.6387	4.0e-5
2020-08-23	82.0571	82.0576	0.00049
2020-08-24	81.9657	81.9667	0.0010
2020-08-25	82.6590	82.6605	0.0015
2020-08-26	83.9133	83.9157	0.0024
2020-08-27	85.2579	85.2608	0.0029
2020-08-28	85.9926	85.9960	0.0034
2020-08-29	85.7812	85.7851	0.0039
2020-08-30	85.2063	85.2107	0.0045
2020-08-31	85.1215	85.1265	0.0050
2020-09-01	85.8213	85.8268	0.0055
2020-09-02	87.2126	87.2184	0.0058
2020-09-03	88.6947	88.7003	0.0057
2020-09-04	89.5673	89.5728	0.0056
2020-09-05	89.4940	89.4995	0.0055
2020-09-06	89.0577	89.0631	0.0054
2020-09-07	89.1119	89.1172	0.0053
2020-09-08	89.9510	89.9562	0.0052
2020-09-09	91.3513	91.3567	0.0054
2020-09-10	92.8421	92.8474	0.0053
2020-09-11	93.7233	93.7285	0.0052
2020-09-12	93.6583	93.6635	0.0051
2020-09-13	93.2301	93.2352	0.0050
2020-09-14	93.2922	93.2971	0.0049
2020-09-15	94.1389	94.1437	0.0048
2020-09-16	95.5466	95.5517	0.0050
2020-09-17	97.0446	97.0496	0.0049
2020-09-18	97.9327	97.9376	0.0048
2020-09-19	97.8745	97.8793	0.0047
2020-09-20	97.4528	97.4575	0.0046
2020-09-21	97.5211	97.5256	0.0045
2020-09-22	98.3739	98.3783	0.0044
2020-09-23	99.7874	99.7920	0.0046
2020-09-24	101.2909	101.2954	0.0045
2020-09-25	102.1843	102.1887	0.0044
2020-09-26	102.1312	102.1355	0.0043
2020-09-27	101.7142	101.7185	0.0042
2020-09-28	101.7871	101.7912	0.0041
2020-09-29	102.6442	102.6482	0.0040
2020-09-30	104.0617	104.0660	0.0042
2020-10-01	105.5691	105.5732	0.0041
2020-10-02	106.4661	106.4701	0.0040
2020-10-03	106.4163	106.4202	0.0039
2020-10-04	106.0025	106.0062	0.0038
2020-10-05	106.0781	106.0818	0.0037
2020-10-06	106.9378	106.9414	0.0036
2020-10-07	108.3577	108.3615	0.0038
2020-10-08	109.8671	109.8708	0.0037
2020-10-09	110.7660	110.7695	0.0036
2020-10-10	110.7178	110.7212	0.0035
2020-10-11	110.3053	110.3086	0.0034
2020-10-12	110.3820	110.3853	0.0032
2020-10-13	111.2425	111.2457	0.0031
2020-10-14	112.6630	112.6664	0.0034
2020-10-15	114.1728	114.1760	0.0032
2020-10-16	115.0717	115.0748	0.0031
2020-10-17	115.0233	115.0263	0.0030
2020-10-18	114.6104	114.6133	0.0029
2020-10-19	114.6865	114.6893	0.0028
2020-10-20	115.5461	115.5488	0.0027
2020-10-21	116.9655	116.9684	0.0029
2020-10-22	118.4738	118.4766	0.0028
2020-10-23	119.3711	119.3737	0.0027
2020-10-24	119.3208	119.3233	0.0026
2020-10-25	118.9057	118.9082	0.0025
2020-10-26	118.9794	118.9818	0.0023
2020-10-27	119.8364	119.8386	0.0022
2020-10-28	121.2528	121.2553	0.0024
2020-10-29	122.7581	122.7604	0.0023
2020-10-30	123.6520	123.6542	0.0022
2020-10-31	123.5981	123.6002	0.0021
2020-11-01	123.1792	123.1812	0.0020
2020-11-02	123.2488	123.2507	0.0019
2020-11-03	124.1014	124.1032	0.0018
2020-11-04	125.5133	125.5153	0.0020
2020-11-05	127.0137	127.0156	0.0019
2020-11-06	127.9026	127.9043	0.0017
2020-11-07	127.8434	127.8450	0.0016
2020-11-08	127.4190	127.4205	0.0015
2020-11-09	127.4829	127.4843	0.0014
2020-11-10	128.3296	128.3309	0.0013
2020-11-11	129.7353	129.7368	0.0015
2020-11-12	131.2293	131.2307	0.0014
2020-11-13	132.1115	132.1128	0.0013
2020-11-14	132.0455	132.0467	0.0012
2020-11-15	131.6141	131.6152	0.0011
2020-11-16	131.6707	131.6716	0.00099
2020-11-17	132.5098	132.5107	0.00088
2020-11-18	133.9078	133.9089	0.0011
2020-11-19	135.3939	135.3949	0.00098
2020-11-20	136.2680	136.2689	0.00086
2020-11-21	136.1937	136.1944	0.00076
2020-11-22	135.7537	135.7543	0.00066
2020-11-23	135.8015	135.8021	0.00056
2020-11-24	136.6317	136.6322	0.00044
2020-11-25	138.0206	138.0213	0.00067
2020-11-26	139.4973	139.4979	0.00055
2020-11-27	140.3619	140.3623	0.00043
2020-11-28	140.2778	140.2782	0.00033
2020-11-29	139.8279	139.8281	0.00024
2020-11-30	139.8656	139.8658	0.00014
2020-12-01	140.6856	140.6856	2.7e-5
2020-12-02	142.0639	142.0642	0.00025
2020-12-03	143.5300	143.5302	0.00014
2020-12-04	144.3838	144.3838	2.0e-5
2020-12-05	144.2886	144.2886	7.4e-5
2020-12-06	143.8275	143.8274	0.00017
2020-12-07	143.8539	143.8537	0.00027
2020-12-08	144.6623	144.6619	0.00037
2020-12-09	146.0290	146.0289	0.00014
2020-12-10	147.4832	147.4830	0.00026
2020-12-11	148.3250	148.3246	0.00037
2020-12-12	148.2177	148.2172	0.00046
2020-12-13	147.7442	147.7437	0.00055
2020-12-14	147.7582	147.7575	0.00065
2020-12-15	148.5539	148.5532	0.00075
2020-12-16	149.9078	149.9073	0.00052
2020-12-17	151.3492	151.3485	0.00063
2020-12-18	152.1778	152.1771	0.00074
2020-12-19	152.0574	152.0565	0.00083
2020-12-20	151.5706	151.5697	0.00092
2020-12-21	151.5710	151.5700	0.0010
2020-12-22	152.3532	152.3521	0.0011
2020-12-23	153.6934	153.6925	0.00088
2020-12-24	155.1209	155.1199	0.00098
2020-12-25	155.9356	155.9345	0.0011
2020-12-26	155.8010	155.7998	0.0012
2020-12-27	155.3000	155.2988	0.0013
2020-12-28	155.2862	155.2848	0.0013
2020-12-29	156.0539	156.0525	0.0014
2020-12-30	157.3795	157.3783	0.0012
2020-12-31	158.7924	158.7911	0.0013
2021-01-01	159.5923	159.5909	0.0014
2021-01-02	159.4429	159.4414	0.0015
2021-01-03	158.9270	158.9254	0.0016
2021-01-04	158.8981	158.8964	0.0017
2021-01-05	159.6507	159.6489	0.0018
2021-01-06	160.9611	160.9596	0.0015
2021-01-07	162.3586	162.3570	0.0016
2021-01-08	163.1432	163.1415	0.0017
2021-01-09	162.9783	162.9765	0.0018
2021-01-10	162.4468	162.4450	0.0019
2021-01-11	162.4023	162.4004	0.0019
2021-01-12	163.1392	163.1372	0.0020
2021-01-13	164.4339	164.4321	0.0018
2021-01-14	165.8156	165.8137	0.0019
2021-01-15	166.5842	166.5822	0.0020
2021-01-16	166.4034	166.4013	0.0021
2021-01-17	165.8559	165.8538	0.0021
2021-01-18	165.7953	165.7931	0.0022
2021-01-19	166.5161	166.5138	0.0023
2021-01-20	167.7945	167.7925	0.0020
2021-01-21	169.1600	169.1579	0.0021
2021-01-22	169.9124	169.9101	0.0022
2021-01-23	169.7152	169.7129	0.0023
2021-01-24	169.1513	169.1490	0.0024
2021-01-25	169.0743	169.0719	0.0024
2021-01-26	169.7786	169.7761	0.0025
2021-01-27	171.0406	171.0384	0.0023
2021-01-28	172.3896	172.3872	0.0024
2021-01-29	173.1254	173.1230	0.0024
2021-01-30	172.9117	172.9092	0.0025
2021-01-31	172.3312	172.3286	0.0026
2021-02-01	172.2376	172.2349	0.0026
2021-02-02	172.9253	172.9226	0.0027
2021-02-03	174.1706	174.1682	0.0025
2021-02-04	175.5029	175.5003	0.0026
2021-02-05	176.2220	176.2194	0.0026
2021-02-06	175.9916	175.9889	0.0027
2021-02-07	175.3945	175.3917	0.0028
2021-02-08	175.2841	175.2813	0.0028
2021-02-09	175.9551	175.9522	0.0029
2021-02-10	177.1837	177.1811	0.0026
2021-02-11	178.4993	178.4965	0.0027
2021-02-12	179.2017	179.1989	0.0028
2021-02-13	178.9545	178.9517	0.0029
2021-02-14	178.3407	178.3377	0.0029
2021-02-15	178.2136	178.2106	0.0030
2021-02-16	178.8679	178.8648	0.0031
2021-02-17	180.0798	180.0770	0.0028
2021-02-18	181.3787	181.3758	0.0029
2021-02-19	182.0645	182.0615	0.0029
2021-02-20	181.8007	181.7977	0.0030
2021-02-21	181.1702	181.1671	0.0031
2021-02-22	181.0265	181.0234	0.0031
2021-02-23	181.6642	181.6610	0.0032
2021-02-24	182.8596	182.8567	0.0029
2021-02-25	184.1419	184.1389	0.0030
2021-02-26	184.8112	184.8081	0.0031
2021-02-27	184.5309	184.5278	0.0031
2021-02-28	183.8839	183.8808	0.0032
2021-03-01	183.7239	183.7206	0.0032
2021-03-02	184.3452	184.3419	0.0033
2021-03-03	185.5242	185.5212	0.0030
2021-03-04	186.7902	186.7871	0.0031
2021-03-05	187.4432	187.4400	0.0032
2021-03-06	187.1467	187.1435	0.0032
2021-03-07	186.4835	186.4803	0.0032
2021-03-08	186.3073	186.3040	0.0033
2021-03-09	186.9125	186.9091	0.0034
2021-03-10	188.0754	188.0723	0.0031
2021-03-11	189.3254	189.3222	0.0032
2021-03-12	189.9624	189.9592	0.0032
2021-03-13	189.6499	189.6467	0.0033
2021-03-14	188.9709	188.9676	0.0033
2021-03-15	188.7788	188.7754	0.0034
2021-03-16	189.3682	189.3648	0.0034
2021-03-17	190.5154	190.5123	0.0031
2021-03-18	191.7497	191.7465	0.0032
2021-03-19	192.3711	192.3678	0.0033
2021-03-20	192.0431	192.0398	0.0033
2021-03-21	191.3485	191.3452	0.0034
2021-03-22	191.1410	191.1376	0.0034
2021-03-23	191.7150	191.7116	0.0035
2021-03-24	192.8469	192.8437	0.0032
2021-03-25	194.0659	194.0627	0.0032
2021-03-26	194.6721	194.6688	0.0033
2021-03-27	194.3289	194.3255	0.0033
2021-03-28	193.6193	193.6159	0.0034
2021-03-29	193.3967	193.3933	0.0034
2021-03-30	193.9557	193.9523	0.0035

Internal fit differences

The forecasts match, so this case passes. Both libraries search for the best-fitting parameters and stop when they are close enough. On this input they stopped at slightly different points, so these internal numbers differ by more than the threshold where we take a closer look.

Check	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Threshold
Fitting objective (lower is a better fit)	-1686.7261	-1686.7629	0.01
Stationarity residual (lower is closer to the best fit)	208.8102	200.7674	0.01

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Convert input rows	78 µs	780 µs	10× faster
Save model to JSON	22 µs	802 µs	36× faster
Load model from JSON	183 µs	2.85 ms	16× faster
Simulate uncertainty	23.1 ms	288 ms	12× faster
First simulation in a new process	333 ms	1.92 s	5.8× faster
Load and simulate in a new process	202 ms	1.84 s	9.1× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "seed": 7,
    "samples": 1000,
    "intervalWidth": 0.8,
    "output": "intervals",
    "algorithm": "scalar-continuous-time",
    "evidence": "docs/validation/uncertainty.md#evidence-classes",
    "samplerMemoryLimitBytes": 67108864
  }
}