A year of changing growth rates

match ← All logistic growth benchmarks

365 daily rows of saturating growth whose rate changes, with weekly seasonality and 25 automatic changepoints. Ranges cover every past day and 90 future ones. mcmc_samples=300.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v3/logistic-rate-changes.json: 365 history rows and 455 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.040 (0.027% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	9.4556	9.4633	0.0077
2020-01-02	10.4962	10.5055	0.0093
2020-01-03	10.9404	10.9490	0.0086
2020-01-04	10.4409	10.4342	0.0067
2020-01-05	9.5651	9.5725	0.0074
2020-01-06	9.1944	9.1925	0.0019
2020-01-07	9.5947	9.6027	0.0081
2020-01-08	10.5711	10.5766	0.0055
2020-01-09	11.6287	11.6357	0.0071
2020-01-10	12.0901	12.0963	0.0062
2020-01-11	11.6079	11.5988	0.0091
2020-01-12	10.7497	10.7546	0.0049
2020-01-13	10.3969	10.3924	0.0045
2020-01-14	10.8154	10.8210	0.0056
2020-01-15	11.8104	11.8136	0.0032
2020-01-16	12.8867	12.8915	0.0048
2020-01-17	13.3671	13.3712	0.0041
2020-01-18	12.9042	12.8931	0.011
2020-01-19	12.0656	12.0686	0.0030
2020-01-20	11.7325	11.7263	0.0062
2020-01-21	12.1708	12.1747	0.0038
2020-01-22	13.1859	13.1873	0.0013
2020-01-23	14.2826	14.2855	0.0029
2020-01-24	14.7835	14.7857	0.0022
2020-01-25	14.3416	14.3287	0.013
2020-01-26	13.5243	13.5256	0.0014
2020-01-27	13.2127	13.2050	0.0077
2020-01-28	13.6729	13.6753	0.0025
2020-01-29	14.7100	14.7101	0.00013
2020-01-30	15.8290	15.8308	0.0019
2020-01-31	16.3525	16.3539	0.0013
2020-02-01	15.9333	15.9195	0.014
2020-02-02	15.1390	15.1394	0.00046
2020-02-03	14.8507	14.8420	0.0087
2020-02-04	15.3343	15.3358	0.0015
2020-02-05	16.3953	16.3944	0.00086
2020-02-06	17.5385	17.5395	0.00098
2020-02-07	18.0867	18.0872	0.00047
2020-02-08	17.6924	17.6778	0.015
2020-02-09	16.9232	16.9230	0.00021
2020-02-10	16.6603	16.6511	0.0093
2020-02-11	17.1697	17.1707	0.00099
2020-02-12	18.2567	18.2554	0.0013
2020-02-13	19.4260	19.4266	0.00056
2020-02-14	20.0006	20.0006	4.8e-5
2020-02-15	19.6329	19.6179	0.015
2020-02-16	18.8906	18.8900	0.00064
2020-02-17	18.6550	18.6453	0.0097
2020-02-18	19.1920	19.1925	0.00048
2020-02-19	20.3069	20.3050	0.0019
2020-02-20	21.5044	21.5043	0.00011
2020-02-21	22.1075	22.1067	0.00071
2020-02-22	21.7686	21.7527	0.016
2020-02-23	21.0553	21.0538	0.0016
2020-02-24	20.8491	20.8384	0.011
2020-02-25	21.4156	21.4150	0.00057
2020-02-26	22.5603	22.5573	0.0029
2020-02-27	23.7879	23.7867	0.0012
2020-02-28	24.4213	24.4195	0.0018
2020-02-29	24.1133	24.0962	0.017
2020-03-01	23.4312	23.4282	0.0030
2020-03-02	23.2564	23.2441	0.012
2020-03-03	23.8546	23.8523	0.0023
2020-03-04	25.0313	25.0264	0.0049
2020-03-05	26.2912	26.2879	0.0033
2020-03-06	26.9572	26.9530	0.0041
2020-03-07	26.6817	26.6623	0.019
2020-03-08	26.0326	26.0271	0.0054
2020-03-09	25.8909	25.8761	0.015
2020-03-10	26.5225	26.5177	0.0049
2020-03-11	27.7329	27.7254	0.0075
2020-03-12	29.0262	29.0213	0.0049
2020-03-13	29.7258	29.7211	0.0047
2020-03-14	29.4843	29.4653	0.019
2020-03-15	28.8692	28.8653	0.0039
2020-03-16	28.7619	28.7497	0.012
2020-03-17	29.4282	29.4270	0.0012
2020-03-18	30.6733	30.6707	0.0026
2020-03-19	32.0022	32.0023	5.7e-5
2020-03-20	32.7376	32.7380	0.00039
2020-03-21	32.5321	32.5183	0.014
2020-03-22	31.9532	31.9547	0.0015
2020-03-23	31.8819	31.8747	0.0073
2020-03-24	32.5844	32.5878	0.0034
2020-03-25	33.8660	33.8674	0.0014
2020-03-26	35.2315	35.2351	0.0036
2020-03-27	36.0036	36.0071	0.0035
2020-03-28	35.8350	35.8239	0.011
2020-03-29	35.2933	35.2969	0.0036
2020-03-30	35.2597	35.2547	0.0051
2020-03-31	36.0001	36.0057	0.0056
2020-04-01	37.3197	37.3234	0.0037
2020-04-02	38.7233	38.7293	0.0060
2020-04-03	39.5338	39.5397	0.0059
2020-04-04	39.4015	39.3925	0.0090
2020-04-05	38.8961	38.9016	0.0055
2020-04-06	38.8989	38.8955	0.0034
2020-04-07	39.6757	39.6827	0.0069
2020-04-08	41.0318	41.0367	0.0048
2020-04-09	42.4721	42.4789	0.0068
2020-04-10	43.3192	43.3256	0.0064
2020-04-11	43.2257	43.2173	0.0085
2020-04-12	42.7593	42.7653	0.0060
2020-04-13	42.8011	42.7982	0.0029
2020-04-14	43.6170	43.6245	0.0075
2020-04-15	45.0122	45.0176	0.0054
2020-04-16	46.4845	46.4914	0.0069
2020-04-17	47.3635	47.3696	0.0061
2020-04-18	47.3018	47.2925	0.0093
2020-04-19	46.8671	46.8718	0.0047
2020-04-20	46.9404	46.9357	0.0047
2020-04-21	47.7877	47.7928	0.0051
2020-04-22	49.2141	49.2166	0.0025
2020-04-23	50.7245	50.7285	0.0040
2020-04-24	51.6417	51.6447	0.0031
2020-04-25	51.6180	51.6057	0.012
2020-04-26	51.2212	51.2228	0.0016
2020-04-27	51.3094	51.3006	0.0088
2020-04-28	52.1710	52.1711	5.1e-5
2020-04-29	53.6113	53.6077	0.0036
2020-04-30	55.1352	55.1320	0.0032
2020-05-01	56.0652	56.0601	0.0051
2020-05-02	56.0540	56.0324	0.022
2020-05-03	55.6691	55.6603	0.0088
2020-05-04	55.7917	55.7724	0.019
2020-05-05	56.6876	56.6770	0.011
2020-05-06	58.1620	58.1476	0.014
2020-05-07	59.7198	59.7057	0.014
2020-05-08	60.6835	60.6673	0.016
2020-05-09	60.2328	60.2029	0.030
2020-05-10	59.4040	59.3897	0.014
2020-05-11	59.0783	59.0563	0.022
2020-05-12	59.5215	59.5110	0.011
2020-05-13	60.5389	60.5275	0.011
2020-05-14	61.6354	61.6270	0.0083
2020-05-15	62.1335	62.1260	0.0075
2020-05-16	61.6860	61.6648	0.021
2020-05-17	60.8604	60.8548	0.0056
2020-05-18	60.5379	60.5246	0.013
2020-05-19	60.9842	60.9825	0.0017
2020-05-20	62.0048	62.0022	0.0026
2020-05-21	63.0916	63.0912	0.00045
2020-05-22	63.5801	63.5795	0.00066
2020-05-23	63.1229	63.1075	0.015
2020-05-24	62.2874	62.2867	0.00072
2020-05-25	61.9551	61.9456	0.0095
2020-05-26	62.3915	62.3926	0.0011
2020-05-27	63.4022	63.4013	0.00085
2020-05-28	64.4917	64.4930	0.0013
2020-05-29	64.9830	64.9841	0.0011
2020-05-30	64.5285	64.5149	0.014
2020-05-31	63.6958	63.6969	0.0011
2020-06-01	63.3616	63.3531	0.0085
2020-06-02	63.7961	63.7974	0.0013
2020-06-03	64.8048	64.8034	0.0014
2020-06-04	65.8924	65.8924	5.2e-5
2020-06-05	66.3817	66.3807	0.0010
2020-06-06	65.9252	65.9087	0.017
2020-06-07	65.0905	65.0878	0.0027
2020-06-08	64.7589	64.7466	0.012
2020-06-09	65.1960	65.1936	0.0024
2020-06-10	66.2073	66.2021	0.0052
2020-06-11	67.2975	67.2936	0.0038
2020-06-12	67.7893	67.7845	0.0048
2020-06-13	67.3336	67.3135	0.020
2020-06-14	66.4997	66.4936	0.0061
2020-06-15	66.1687	66.1534	0.015
2020-06-16	66.6066	66.6012	0.0054
2020-06-17	67.6186	67.6107	0.0079
2020-06-18	68.7095	68.7031	0.0064
2020-06-19	69.2021	69.1949	0.0071
2020-06-20	68.7488	68.7264	0.022
2020-06-21	67.9173	67.9090	0.0084
2020-06-22	67.5889	67.5712	0.018
2020-06-23	68.0292	68.0215	0.0077
2020-06-24	69.0437	69.0335	0.010
2020-06-25	70.1364	70.1282	0.0082
2020-06-26	70.6307	70.6222	0.0085
2020-06-27	70.1792	70.1559	0.023
2020-06-28	69.3494	69.3407	0.0087
2020-06-29	69.0227	69.0052	0.018
2020-06-30	69.4648	69.4577	0.0070
2020-07-01	70.4809	70.4719	0.0091
2020-07-02	71.5760	71.5690	0.0070
2020-07-03	72.0727	72.0654	0.0073
2020-07-04	71.6236	71.6015	0.022
2020-07-05	70.7963	70.7888	0.0075
2020-07-06	70.4715	70.4552	0.016
2020-07-07	70.9155	70.9098	0.0057
2020-07-08	71.9336	71.9260	0.0076
2020-07-09	73.0306	73.0251	0.0055
2020-07-10	73.5293	73.5235	0.0057
2020-07-11	73.0821	73.0616	0.020
2020-07-12	72.2566	72.2509	0.0058
2020-07-13	71.9342	71.9197	0.015
2020-07-14	72.3805	72.3766	0.0039
2020-07-15	73.4010	73.3951	0.0059
2020-07-16	74.5003	74.4965	0.0037
2020-07-17	75.0012	74.9973	0.0039
2020-07-18	74.5565	74.5373	0.019
2020-07-19	73.7335	73.7284	0.0051
2020-07-20	73.4135	73.3991	0.014
2020-07-21	73.8623	73.8579	0.0044
2020-07-22	74.8852	74.8783	0.0069
2020-07-23	75.9869	75.9816	0.0053
2020-07-24	76.4903	76.4842	0.0061
2020-07-25	76.0478	76.0265	0.021
2020-07-26	75.2271	75.2198	0.0073
2020-07-27	74.9094	74.8928	0.017
2020-07-28	75.3604	75.3538	0.0066
2020-07-29	76.3855	76.3764	0.0091
2020-07-30	77.4911	77.4832	0.0079
2020-07-31	77.9982	77.9893	0.0090
2020-08-01	77.5596	77.5350	0.025
2020-08-02	76.7427	76.7318	0.011
2020-08-03	76.4287	76.4083	0.020
2020-08-04	76.8835	76.8727	0.011
2020-08-05	77.9124	77.8988	0.014
2020-08-06	79.0202	79.0078	0.012
2020-08-07	79.5295	79.5160	0.014
2020-08-08	79.0930	79.0639	0.029
2020-08-09	78.2783	78.2629	0.015
2020-08-10	77.9737	77.9482	0.026
2020-08-11	78.4380	78.4215	0.016
2020-08-12	79.4763	79.4564	0.020
2020-08-13	80.5934	80.5743	0.019
2020-08-14	81.1122	81.0914	0.021
2020-08-15	80.6852	80.6482	0.037
2020-08-16	79.8799	79.8561	0.024
2020-08-17	79.5775	79.5436	0.034
2020-08-18	80.0440	80.0191	0.025
2020-08-19	81.0845	81.0562	0.028
2020-08-20	82.2038	82.1763	0.028
2020-08-21	82.7248	82.6956	0.029
2020-08-22	82.5361	82.4963	0.040
2020-08-23	81.9700	81.9490	0.021
2020-08-24	81.9076	81.8821	0.025
2020-08-25	82.6147	82.6040	0.011
2020-08-26	83.8967	83.8883	0.0084
2020-08-27	85.2583	85.2563	0.0020
2020-08-28	86.0222	86.0243	0.0021
2020-08-29	85.8410	85.8327	0.0083
2020-08-30	85.2822	85.2929	0.011
2020-08-31	85.2271	85.2334	0.0063
2020-09-01	85.9414	85.9626	0.021
2020-09-02	87.3252	87.3432	0.018
2020-09-03	88.7889	88.8077	0.019
2020-09-04	89.6551	89.6724	0.017
2020-09-05	89.5765	89.5778	0.0013
2020-09-06	89.1205	89.1351	0.015
2020-09-07	89.1684	89.1729	0.0046
2020-09-08	89.9859	89.9997	0.014
2020-09-09	91.3783	91.3888	0.011
2020-09-10	92.8503	92.8617	0.011
2020-09-11	93.7248	93.7346	0.0098
2020-09-12	93.6541	93.6479	0.0062
2020-09-13	93.2059	93.2130	0.0071
2020-09-14	93.2714	93.2685	0.0029
2020-09-15	94.1064	94.1128	0.0064
2020-09-16	95.5160	95.5192	0.0032
2020-09-17	97.0051	97.0092	0.0041
2020-09-18	97.8965	97.8991	0.0026
2020-09-19	97.8425	97.8291	0.013
2020-09-20	97.4108	97.4108	4.0e-5
2020-09-21	97.4825	97.4725	0.010
2020-09-22	98.3234	98.3227	0.00067
2020-09-23	99.7388	99.7349	0.0039
2020-09-24	101.2334	101.2304	0.0030
2020-09-25	102.1300	102.1255	0.0045
2020-09-26	102.0833	102.0633	0.020
2020-09-27	101.6586	101.6525	0.0060
2020-09-28	101.7371	101.7216	0.016
2020-09-29	102.5846	102.5788	0.0057
2020-09-30	104.0063	103.9979	0.0084
2020-10-01	105.5070	105.5000	0.0070
2020-10-02	106.4094	106.4014	0.0080
2020-10-03	106.3660	106.3426	0.023
2020-10-04	105.9444	105.9349	0.0095
2020-10-05	106.0258	106.0068	0.019
2020-10-06	106.8758	106.8667	0.0092
2020-10-07	108.3005	108.2889	0.012
2020-10-08	109.8038	109.7940	0.0098
2020-10-09	110.7087	110.6982	0.010
2020-10-10	110.6675	110.6419	0.026
2020-10-11	110.2478	110.2365	0.011
2020-10-12	110.3308	110.3104	0.020
2020-10-13	111.1823	111.1720	0.010
2020-10-14	112.6075	112.5949	0.013
2020-10-15	114.1112	114.1003	0.011
2020-10-16	115.0162	115.0047	0.012
2020-10-17	114.9748	114.9482	0.027
2020-10-18	114.5547	114.5424	0.012
2020-10-19	114.6369	114.6158	0.021
2020-10-20	115.4872	115.4767	0.011
2020-10-21	116.9111	116.8986	0.013
2020-10-22	118.4132	118.4028	0.010
2020-10-23	119.3162	119.3056	0.011
2020-10-24	119.2728	119.2474	0.025
2020-10-25	118.8503	118.8396	0.011
2020-10-26	118.9301	118.9106	0.019
2020-10-27	119.7778	119.7689	0.0089
2020-10-28	121.1988	121.1880	0.011
2020-10-29	122.6978	122.6891	0.0087
2020-10-30	123.5975	123.5886	0.0089
2020-10-31	123.5504	123.5268	0.024
2020-11-01	123.1242	123.1152	0.0090
2020-11-02	123.1999	123.1821	0.018
2020-11-03	124.0433	124.0361	0.0072
2020-11-04	125.4597	125.4506	0.0092
2020-11-05	126.9540	126.9469	0.0070
2020-11-06	127.8487	127.8414	0.0072
2020-11-07	127.7964	127.7744	0.022
2020-11-08	127.3646	127.3573	0.0073
2020-11-09	127.4346	127.4185	0.016
2020-11-10	128.2721	128.2666	0.0055
2020-11-11	129.6824	129.6749	0.0075
2020-11-12	131.1702	131.1649	0.0053
2020-11-13	132.0583	132.0528	0.0056
2020-11-14	131.9992	131.9789	0.020
2020-11-15	131.5604	131.5547	0.0056
2020-11-16	131.6231	131.6087	0.014
2020-11-17	132.4531	132.4493	0.0038
2020-11-18	133.8557	133.8499	0.0058
2020-11-19	135.3357	135.3320	0.0037
2020-11-20	136.2156	136.2118	0.0039
2020-11-21	136.1482	136.1296	0.019
2020-11-22	135.7009	135.6969	0.0040
2020-11-23	135.7549	135.7421	0.013
2020-11-24	136.5760	136.5738	0.0022
2020-11-25	137.9694	137.9653	0.0042
2020-11-26	139.4400	139.4380	0.0020
2020-11-27	140.3105	140.3082	0.0023
2020-11-28	140.2333	140.2163	0.017
2020-11-29	139.7761	139.7737	0.0024
2020-11-30	139.8200	139.8089	0.011
2020-12-01	140.6308	140.6302	0.00060
2020-12-02	142.0138	142.0112	0.0026
2020-12-03	143.4738	143.4733	0.00045
2020-12-04	144.3334	144.3327	0.00068
2020-12-05	144.2452	144.2298	0.015
2020-12-06	143.7768	143.7760	0.00081
2020-12-07	143.8094	143.7998	0.0096
2020-12-08	144.6087	144.6097	0.00095
2020-12-09	145.9800	145.9790	0.0010
2020-12-10	147.4281	147.4292	0.0011
2020-12-11	148.2758	148.2766	0.00084
2020-12-12	148.1755	148.1616	0.014
2020-12-13	147.6948	147.6955	0.00070
2020-12-14	147.7149	147.7068	0.0081
2020-12-15	148.5016	148.5040	0.0024
2020-12-16	149.8601	149.8606	0.00044
2020-12-17	151.2953	151.2979	0.0025
2020-12-18	152.1299	152.1322	0.0023
2020-12-19	152.0164	152.0040	0.012
2020-12-20	151.5224	151.5245	0.0021
2020-12-21	151.5291	151.5224	0.0067
2020-12-22	152.3022	152.3060	0.0039
2020-12-23	153.6470	153.6489	0.0018
2020-12-24	155.0684	155.0723	0.0039
2020-12-25	155.8890	155.8927	0.0037
2020-12-26	155.7615	155.7504	0.011
2020-12-27	155.2532	155.2567	0.0035
2020-12-28	155.2456	155.2403	0.0053
2020-12-29	156.0043	156.0094	0.0052
2020-12-30	157.3346	157.3378	0.0032
2020-12-31	158.7413	158.7466	0.0052
2021-01-01	159.5472	159.5522	0.0050
2021-01-02	159.4048	159.3950	0.0098
2021-01-03	158.8817	158.8864	0.0048
2021-01-04	158.8590	158.8549	0.0041
2021-01-05	159.6025	159.6090	0.0064
2021-01-06	160.9176	160.9220	0.0044
2021-01-07	162.3091	162.3156	0.0065
2021-01-08	163.0996	163.1058	0.0062
2021-01-09	162.9417	162.9331	0.0086
2021-01-10	162.4030	162.4090	0.0059
2021-01-11	162.3647	162.3618	0.0029
2021-01-12	163.0926	163.1002	0.0076
2021-01-13	164.3919	164.3975	0.0055
2021-01-14	165.7676	165.7751	0.0076
2021-01-15	166.5422	166.5495	0.0073
2021-01-16	166.3683	166.3608	0.0075
2021-01-17	165.8136	165.8207	0.0070
2021-01-18	165.7592	165.7574	0.0018
2021-01-19	166.4710	166.4796	0.0087
2021-01-20	167.7541	167.7607	0.0066
2021-01-21	169.1135	169.1222	0.0086
2021-01-22	169.8719	169.8802	0.0083
2021-01-23	169.6817	169.6752	0.0065
2021-01-24	169.1106	169.1187	0.0080
2021-01-25	169.0398	169.0390	0.00082
2021-01-26	169.7351	169.7448	0.0096
2021-01-27	171.0018	171.0094	0.0076
2021-01-28	172.3447	172.3543	0.0096
2021-01-29	173.0865	173.0958	0.0093
2021-01-30	172.8798	172.8742	0.0056
2021-01-31	172.2921	172.3011	0.0089
2021-02-01	172.2047	172.2048	6.7e-5
2021-02-02	172.8834	172.8939	0.010
2021-02-03	174.1334	174.1419	0.0084
2021-02-04	175.4596	175.4701	0.010
2021-02-05	176.1848	176.1949	0.010
2021-02-06	175.9613	175.9566	0.0048
2021-02-07	175.3570	175.3667	0.0097
2021-02-08	175.2529	175.2537	0.00086
2021-02-09	175.9148	175.9261	0.011
2021-02-10	177.1481	177.1573	0.0092
2021-02-11	178.4576	178.4688	0.011
2021-02-12	179.1660	179.1768	0.011
2021-02-13	178.9259	178.9218	0.0040
2021-02-14	178.3048	178.3152	0.010
2021-02-15	178.1840	178.1855	0.0016
2021-02-16	178.8292	178.8412	0.012
2021-02-17	180.0458	180.0557	0.0099
2021-02-18	181.3387	181.3505	0.012
2021-02-19	182.0304	182.0419	0.011
2021-02-20	181.7736	181.7702	0.0034
2021-02-21	181.1359	181.1470	0.011
2021-02-22	180.9985	181.0006	0.0022
2021-02-23	181.6271	181.6397	0.013
2021-02-24	182.8272	182.8376	0.010
2021-02-25	184.1035	184.1159	0.012
2021-02-26	184.7787	184.7907	0.012
2021-02-27	184.5054	184.5025	0.0029
2021-02-28	183.8512	183.8628	0.012
2021-03-01	183.6974	183.7001	0.0027
2021-03-02	184.3097	184.3227	0.013
2021-03-03	185.4934	185.5043	0.011
2021-03-04	186.7533	186.7662	0.013
2021-03-05	187.4123	187.4248	0.012
2021-03-06	187.1227	187.1203	0.0024
2021-03-07	186.4524	186.4644	0.012
2021-03-08	186.2823	186.2855	0.0031
2021-03-09	186.8785	186.8920	0.013
2021-03-10	188.0461	188.0575	0.011
2021-03-11	189.2900	189.3033	0.013
2021-03-12	189.9330	189.9459	0.013
2021-03-13	189.6275	189.6255	0.0020
2021-03-14	188.9413	188.9537	0.012
2021-03-15	188.7554	188.7589	0.0035
2021-03-16	189.3358	189.3496	0.014
2021-03-17	190.4877	190.4993	0.012
2021-03-18	191.7159	191.7295	0.014
2021-03-19	192.3432	192.3564	0.013
2021-03-20	192.0222	192.0205	0.0017
2021-03-21	191.3204	191.3331	0.013
2021-03-22	191.1191	191.1228	0.0038
2021-03-23	191.6840	191.6981	0.014
2021-03-24	192.8206	192.8325	0.012
2021-03-25	194.0335	194.0474	0.014
2021-03-26	194.6456	194.6591	0.013
2021-03-27	194.3094	194.3080	0.0015
2021-03-28	193.5926	193.6055	0.013
2021-03-29	193.3762	193.3802	0.0040
2021-03-30	193.9262	193.9405	0.014

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Fit	31.6 s	6.93 s	4.6× slower
Predict	1.91 ms	5.12 ms	Not compared: different work
Save model to JSON	745 µs	44.9 ms	60× faster
Load model from JSON	5.42 ms	22.9 ms	4.2× faster
Simulate uncertainty	38.4 ms	356 ms	Not compared: different work
Load and simulate in a new process	245 ms	1.89 s	Not compared: different work

Some steps aren't compared, because the two libraries' public calls produce different outputs. Their times show what each call costs, not which library is faster.

• Predict: Python's predict on a posterior also computes every component's range over the draws, while Effect Prophet's predict returns point forecasts and leaves ranges to predictWithIntervals.
• Simulate uncertainty, Load and simulate in a new process: Python's predict(vectorized=False) also builds the point forecast and every component, while Effect Prophet's predictUncertainty returns only the ranges.

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-posterior",
    "evidenceId": "posterior-nuts-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly-custom",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "seed": 19,
    "samples": 1000,
    "intervalWidth": 0.8,
    "output": "intervals",
    "algorithm": "scalar-continuous-time",
    "evidence": "docs/validation/uncertainty.md#evidence-classes",
    "samplerMemoryLimitBytes": 67108864
  },
  "mcmc": {
    "samples": 300,
    "seed": 19,
    "pointWidthFraction": 0.15
  }
}