Pinned at the ceiling

match ← All logistic growth benchmarks

Starts near zero and spends its last third at or above the ceiling.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-saturated-96.json: 96 history rows and 120 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 1.0e-9 (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	0.0020	0.0020	2.6e-12
2020-01-02	0.0026	0.0026	3.3e-12
2020-01-03	0.0034	0.0034	4.1e-12
2020-01-04	0.0044	0.0044	5.1e-12
2020-01-05	0.0056	0.0056	6.4e-12
2020-01-06	0.0072	0.0072	8.0e-12
2020-01-07	0.0093	0.0093	1.0e-11
2020-01-08	0.0120	0.0120	1.2e-11
2020-01-09	0.0155	0.0155	1.5e-11
2020-01-10	0.0199	0.0199	1.9e-11
2020-01-11	0.0257	0.0257	2.4e-11
2020-01-12	0.0331	0.0331	3.0e-11
2020-01-13	0.0426	0.0426	3.7e-11
2020-01-14	0.0549	0.0549	4.5e-11
2020-01-15	0.0707	0.0707	5.6e-11
2020-01-16	0.0911	0.0911	6.9e-11
2020-01-17	0.1174	0.1174	8.5e-11
2020-01-18	0.1512	0.1512	1.0e-10
2020-01-19	0.1947	0.1947	1.3e-10
2020-01-20	0.2508	0.2508	1.5e-10
2020-01-21	0.3229	0.3229	1.9e-10
2020-01-22	0.4156	0.4156	2.3e-10
2020-01-23	0.5349	0.5349	2.7e-10
2020-01-24	0.6882	0.6882	3.3e-10
2020-01-25	0.8850	0.8850	3.9e-10
2020-01-26	1.1374	1.1374	4.6e-10
2020-01-27	1.4609	1.4609	5.4e-10
2020-01-28	1.8746	1.8746	6.3e-10
2020-01-29	2.4027	2.4027	7.2e-10
2020-01-30	3.0750	3.0750	8.1e-10
2020-01-31	3.9282	3.9282	9.0e-10
2020-02-01	5.0062	5.0062	9.7e-10
2020-02-02	6.3610	6.3610	1.0e-9
2020-02-03	8.0524	8.0524	9.9e-10
2020-02-04	10.1465	10.1465	9.1e-10
2020-02-05	12.7124	12.7124	7.2e-10
2020-02-06	15.8173	15.8173	4.0e-10
2020-02-07	19.5176	19.5176	7.7e-11
2020-02-08	23.8482	23.8482	7.2e-10
2020-02-09	28.8108	28.8108	6.4e-10
2020-02-10	34.3620	34.3620	5.0e-10
2020-02-11	40.4067	40.4067	3.2e-10
2020-02-12	46.7992	46.7992	1.1e-10
2020-02-13	53.3546	53.3546	1.1e-10
2020-02-14	59.8684	59.8684	3.3e-10
2020-02-15	66.1421	66.1421	5.2e-10
2020-02-16	72.0063	72.0063	6.8e-10
2020-02-17	77.3372	77.3372	7.8e-10
2020-02-18	82.0629	82.0629	8.3e-10
2020-02-19	86.1607	86.1607	8.4e-10
2020-02-20	89.6478	89.6478	8.1e-10
2020-02-21	92.5691	92.5691	7.6e-10
2020-02-22	94.9859	94.9859	7.0e-10
2020-02-23	96.9658	96.9658	6.2e-10
2020-02-24	98.5761	98.5761	5.5e-10
2020-02-25	99.8797	99.8797	4.7e-10
2020-02-26	100.9320	100.9320	4.1e-10
2020-02-27	101.7810	101.7810	3.4e-10
2020-02-28	102.4670	102.4670	2.9e-10
2020-02-29	103.0230	103.0230	2.4e-10
2020-03-01	103.4761	103.4761	2.0e-10
2020-03-02	103.8480	103.8480	1.7e-10
2020-03-03	104.1561	104.1561	1.4e-10
2020-03-04	104.4140	104.4140	1.1e-10
2020-03-05	104.6328	104.6328	9.2e-11
2020-03-06	104.8209	104.8209	7.5e-11
2020-03-07	104.9851	104.9851	6.1e-11
2020-03-08	105.1306	105.1306	4.9e-11
2020-03-09	105.2616	105.2616	4.0e-11
2020-03-10	105.3813	105.3813	3.2e-11
2020-03-11	105.4921	105.4921	2.6e-11
2020-03-12	105.5961	105.5961	2.1e-11
2020-03-13	105.6948	105.6948	1.7e-11
2020-03-14	105.7893	105.7893	1.4e-11
2020-03-15	105.8806	105.8806	1.1e-11
2020-03-16	105.9694	105.9694	8.7e-12
2020-03-17	106.0562	106.0562	7.0e-12
2020-03-18	106.1415	106.1415	5.6e-12
2020-03-19	106.2256	106.2256	4.5e-12
2020-03-20	106.3088	106.3088	3.6e-12
2020-03-21	106.3913	106.3913	2.9e-12
2020-03-22	106.4732	106.4732	2.3e-12
2020-03-23	106.5547	106.5547	1.8e-12
2020-03-24	106.6359	106.6359	1.5e-12
2020-03-25	106.7168	106.7168	1.2e-12
2020-03-26	106.7975	106.7975	9.2e-13
2020-03-27	106.8781	106.8781	7.1e-13
2020-03-28	106.9585	106.9585	5.5e-13
2020-03-29	107.0388	107.0388	4.5e-13
2020-03-30	107.1191	107.1191	3.8e-13
2020-03-31	107.1993	107.1993	3.1e-13
2020-04-01	107.2795	107.2795	2.3e-13
2020-04-02	107.3596	107.3596	2.0e-13
2020-04-03	107.4397	107.4397	1.4e-13
2020-04-04	107.5197	107.5197	1.3e-13
2020-04-05	107.5998	107.5998	1.1e-13
2020-04-06	107.6798	107.6798	5.7e-14
2020-04-07	107.7599	107.7599	4.3e-14
2020-04-08	107.8399	107.8399	4.3e-14
2020-04-09	107.9199	107.9199	0
2020-04-10	107.9999	107.9999	1.4e-14
2020-04-11	108.0800	108.0800	2.8e-14
2020-04-12	108.1600	108.1600	1.4e-14
2020-04-13	108.2400	108.2400	2.8e-14
2020-04-14	108.3200	108.3200	0
2020-04-15	108.4000	108.4000	4.3e-14
2020-04-16	108.4800	108.4800	0
2020-04-17	108.5600	108.5600	1.4e-14
2020-04-18	108.6400	108.6400	1.4e-14
2020-04-19	108.7200	108.7200	0
2020-04-20	108.8000	108.8000	0
2020-04-21	108.8800	108.8800	0
2020-04-22	108.9600	108.9600	1.4e-14
2020-04-23	109.0400	109.0400	1.4e-14
2020-04-24	109.1200	109.1200	0
2020-04-25	109.2000	109.2000	1.4e-14
2020-04-26	109.2800	109.2800	2.8e-14
2020-04-27	109.3600	109.3600	0
2020-04-28	109.4400	109.4400	1.4e-14
2020-04-29	109.5200	109.5200	1.4e-14

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Fit	10.9 ms	20.3 ms	1.9× faster
Predict	825 µs	3.10 ms	3.8× faster
Save model to JSON	21 µs	482 µs	23× faster
Load model from JSON	142 µs	2.29 ms	16× faster
Load and predict in a new process	160 ms	1.53 s	9.6× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "explicit",
      "timestamps": [
        "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000Z"
      ]
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}