---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/logistic/logistic-reconcile-mixed-absmax.md
---

# Everything at once, absmax scaling

 [← All logistic growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/logistic)

A switchable weekly pattern, a campaign event and a multiplicative regressor between an explicit floor and ceiling.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-mixed-96.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-mixed-96.json): 96 history rows and 120 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **4.3e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-01-01 | 24.5263 | 24.5263 | 3.5e-12 |
| 2020-01-02 | 25.6388 | 25.6388 | 3.0e-12 |
| 2020-01-03 | 27.2295 | 27.2295 | 2.7e-12 |
| 2020-01-04 | 26.3756 | 26.3756 | 2.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-05 | 26.2047 | 26.2047 | 2.0e-12 |
| 2020-01-06 | 27.1083 | 27.1083 | 1.5e-12 |
| 2020-01-07 | 27.0356 | 27.0356 | 1.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-08 | 28.2706 | 28.2706 | 6.3e-13 |
| 2020-01-09 | 30.5190 | 30.5190 | 6.8e-14 |
| 2020-01-10 | 30.2275 | 30.2275 | 6.7e-13 |
| 2020-01-11 | 30.0701 | 30.0701 | 1.1e-12 |
| 2020-01-12 | 30.3521 | 30.3521 | 1.6e-12 |
| 2020-01-13 | 30.5813 | 30.5813 | 2.2e-12 |
| 2020-01-14 | 31.4023 | 31.4023 | 2.8e-12 |
| 2020-01-15 | 33.9451 | 33.9451 | 3.8e-12 |
| 2020-01-16 | 33.4267 | 33.4267 | 4.4e-12 |
| 2020-01-17 | 34.9266 | 34.9266 | 5.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-18 | 35.2248 | 35.2248 | 6.0e-12 |
| 2020-01-19 | 35.2731 | 35.2731 | 6.7e-12 |
| 2020-01-20 | 35.6128 | 35.6128 | 7.4e-12 |
| 2020-01-21 | 40.6815 | 40.6815 | 9.1e-12 |
| 2020-01-22 | 39.8265 | 39.8265 | 5.8e-12 |
| 2020-01-23 | 41.3651 | 41.3651 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-24 | 40.3910 | 40.3910 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-01-25 | 40.7940 | 40.7940 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-26 | 41.3029 | 41.3029 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-01-27 | 42.9288 | 42.9288 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-01-28 | 42.4154 | 42.4154 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-01-29 | 43.9659 | 43.9659 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-30 | 45.4711 | 45.4711 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-01-31 | 45.7612 | 45.7612 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-01 | 47.0321 | 47.0321 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-02 | 49.0090 | 49.0090 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-03 | 47.7866 | 47.7866 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-04 | 48.8914 | 48.8914 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-05 | 50.4886 | 50.4886 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-06 | 52.0847 | 52.0847 | 2.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-07 | 53.2178 | 53.2178 | 2.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-08 | 55.7191 | 55.7191 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-09 | 54.0520 | 54.0520 | 2.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-10 | 55.4033 | 55.4033 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-11 | 55.7666 | 55.7666 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-12 | 57.4250 | 57.4250 | 3.0e-11 |
| 2020-02-13 | 59.0279 | 59.0279 | 3.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-14 | 62.3599 | 62.3599 | 3.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-15 | 60.4086 | 60.4086 | 3.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-16 | 61.0536 | 61.0536 | 3.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-17 | 61.6284 | 61.6284 | 3.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-18 | 62.7768 | 62.7768 | 3.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-19 | 64.4307 | 64.4307 | 3.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-20 | 67.7906 | 67.7906 | 3.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-21 | 67.1659 | 67.1659 | 3.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-22 | 67.7108 | 67.7108 | 3.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-23 | 67.9839 | 67.9839 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-24 | 68.5260 | 68.5260 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-25 | 70.2701 | 70.2701 | 4.0e-11 |
| 2020-02-26 | 73.8523 | 73.8523 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-27 | 72.7908 | 72.7908 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-28 | 73.8799 | 73.8799 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-29 | 74.3667 | 74.3667 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-01 | 74.9348 | 74.9348 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-02 | 75.0524 | 75.0524 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-03 | 78.8987 | 78.8987 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-04 | 77.6272 | 77.6272 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-05 | 79.0930 | 79.0930 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-06 | 79.3193 | 79.3193 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-07 | 80.5021 | 80.5021 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-08 | 80.6248 | 80.6248 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-09 | 84.0019 | 84.0019 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-10 | 81.9557 | 81.9557 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-11 | 83.3720 | 83.3720 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-12 | 84.7651 | 84.7651 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-13 | 85.6738 | 85.6738 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-14 | 85.9756 | 85.9756 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-15 | 89.1564 | 89.1564 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-16 | 87.0632 | 87.0632 | 4.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-17 | 87.1229 | 87.1229 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-18 | 88.4599 | 88.4599 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-19 | 89.7249 | 89.7249 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-20 | 90.5296 | 90.5296 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-21 | 93.6897 | 93.6897 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-22 | 90.6452 | 90.6452 | 3.7e-11 |
| 2020-03-23 | 90.8242 | 90.8242 | 3.7e-11 |
| 2020-03-24 | 91.5648 | 91.5648 | 3.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-25 | 92.7998 | 92.7998 | 3.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-26 | 93.3380 | 93.3380 | 3.5e-11 |
| 2020-03-27 | 98.1027 | 98.1027 | 3.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-28 | 94.7664 | 94.7664 | 3.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-29 | 94.5860 | 94.5860 | 3.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-30 | 94.6683 | 94.6683 | 3.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-31 | 95.9474 | 95.9474 | 3.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-01 | 96.4544 | 96.4544 | 3.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-02 | 101.0709 | 101.0709 | 3.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-03 | 98.1392 | 98.1392 | 3.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-04 | 98.1486 | 98.1486 | 3.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-05 | 98.2383 | 98.2383 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-06 | 97.8774 | 97.8774 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-07 | 98.4386 | 98.4386 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-08 | 103.1368 | 103.1368 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-09 | 100.4884 | 100.4884 | 2.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-10 | 100.2425 | 100.2425 | 2.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-11 | 100.9564 | 100.9564 | 2.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-12 | 100.6139 | 100.6139 | 2.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-13 | 100.5376 | 100.5376 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-14 | 104.7473 | 104.7473 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-15 | 104.1373 | 104.1373 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-16 | 104.7701 | 104.7701 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-17 | 105.3665 | 105.3665 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-18 | 103.2806 | 103.2806 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-19 | 102.8765 | 102.8765 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-20 | 107.3115 | 107.3115 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-21 | 103.1724 | 103.1724 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-22 | 104.1058 | 104.1058 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-23 | 104.9749 | 104.9749 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-24 | 105.3917 | 105.3917 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-25 | 104.8652 | 104.8652 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-26 | 108.6014 | 108.6014 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-27 | 104.5714 | 104.5714 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-28 | 104.9570 | 104.9570 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-29 | 105.8453 | 105.8453 | 1.6e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Fit | 28.2 ms | 42.9 ms | 1.5× faster |
| Predict | 900 µs | 5.04 ms | 5.6× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 23 µs | 653 µs | 28× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 178 µs | 3.74 ms | 21× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 166 ms | 1.41 s | 8.5× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "explicit",
      "timestamps": [
        "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000Z"
      ]
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly-custom",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10,
        "conditionName": "active"
      }
    ],
    "events": [
      {
        "name": "campaign",
        "date": "2020-01-22",
        "lowerWindowDays": -1,
        "upperWindowDays": 1,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "campaign",
        "date": "2020-04-16",
        "lowerWindowDays": -1,
        "upperWindowDays": 1,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "regressors": [
      {
        "name": "promotion",
        "priorScale": 10,
        "standardization": "never",
        "mode": "multiplicative"
      }
    ]
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```