---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/logistic/logistic-reconcile-defaults-96.md
---

# Defaults, three months of daily data

 [← All logistic growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/logistic)

96 days with a weekly pattern. Weekly seasonality and 25 automatic changepoints switch on by default.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-weekly-96.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-weekly-96.json): 96 history rows and 120 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **3.1e-9** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-01-01 | 14.1935 | 14.1935 | 2.1e-10 |
| 2020-01-02 | 15.3500 | 15.3500 | 1.6e-10 |
| 2020-01-03 | 16.0515 | 16.0515 | 6.8e-11 |
| 2020-01-04 | 16.1823 | 16.1823 | 4.6e-10 |
| 2020-01-05 | 16.0688 | 16.0688 | 1.0e-9 |
| 2020-01-06 | 16.2340 | 16.2340 | 1.5e-9 |
| 2020-01-07 | 17.0125 | 17.0125 | 1.7e-9 |
| 2020-01-08 | 18.2687 | 18.2687 | 1.4e-9 |
| 2020-01-09 | 19.5466 | 19.5466 | 1.0e-9 |
| 2020-01-10 | 20.3709 | 20.3709 | 7.9e-10 |
| 2020-01-11 | 20.6260 | 20.6260 | 8.2e-10 |
| 2020-01-12 | 20.6382 | 20.6382 | 9.5e-10 |
| 2020-01-13 | 20.9300 | 20.9300 | 9.3e-10 |
| 2020-01-14 | 21.8362 | 21.8362 | 8.2e-10 |
| 2020-01-15 | 23.2198 | 23.2198 | 7.2e-10 |
| 2020-01-16 | 24.6256 | 24.6256 | 5.7e-10 |
| 2020-01-17 | 25.5780 | 25.5780 | 3.5e-10 |
| 2020-01-18 | 25.9612 | 25.9612 | 2.6e-10 |
| 2020-01-19 | 26.1012 | 26.1012 | 2.8e-10 |
| 2020-01-20 | 26.5205 | 26.5205 | 2.9e-10 |
| 2020-01-21 | 27.5534 | 27.5534 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-22 | 29.0628 | 29.0628 | 1.8e-10 |
| 2020-01-23 | 30.5932 | 30.5932 | 4.0e-10 |
| 2020-01-24 | 31.6689 | 31.6689 | 4.4e-10 |
| 2020-01-25 | 32.1736 | 32.1736 | 3.4e-10 |
| 2020-01-26 | 32.4331 | 32.4331 | 5.1e-11 |
| 2020-01-27 | 32.9695 | 32.9695 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-28 | 34.1169 | 34.1169 | 8.5e-14 |
| 2020-01-29 | 35.7380 | 35.7380 | 3.4e-10 |
| 2020-01-30 | 37.3767 | 37.3767 | 7.4e-10 |
| 2020-01-31 | 38.5572 | 38.5572 | 9.8e-10 |
| 2020-02-01 | 39.1630 | 39.1630 | 9.0e-10 |
| 2020-02-02 | 39.5194 | 39.5194 | 7.0e-10 |
| 2020-02-03 | 40.1484 | 40.1484 | 6.5e-10 |
| 2020-02-04 | 41.3838 | 41.3838 | 8.4e-10 |
| 2020-02-05 | 43.0880 | 43.0880 | 1.0e-9 |
| 2020-02-06 | 44.8048 | 44.8048 | 1.2e-9 |
| 2020-02-07 | 46.0580 | 46.0580 | 1.1e-9 |
| 2020-02-08 | 46.7308 | 46.7308 | 8.0e-10 |
| 2020-02-09 | 47.1485 | 47.1485 | 3.8e-10 |
| 2020-02-10 | 47.8329 | 47.8329 | 1.6e-10 |
| 2020-02-11 | 49.1176 | 49.1176 | 4.6e-10 |
| 2020-02-12 | 50.8648 | 50.8648 | 7.7e-10 |
| 2020-02-13 | 52.6181 | 52.6181 | 7.2e-10 |
| 2020-02-14 | 53.9014 | 53.9014 | 8.3e-10 |
| 2020-02-15 | 54.5976 | 54.5976 | 1.1e-9 |
| 2020-02-16 | 55.0321 | 55.0321 | 7.5e-10 |
| 2020-02-17 | 55.7265 | 55.7265 | 2.7e-10 |
| 2020-02-18 | 57.0145 | 57.0145 | 4.5e-10 |
| 2020-02-19 | 58.7582 | 58.7582 | 1.1e-9 |
| 2020-02-20 | 60.5014 | 60.5014 | 1.7e-9 |
| 2020-02-21 | 61.7680 | 61.7680 | 2.2e-9 |
| 2020-02-22 | 62.4410 | 62.4410 | 2.1e-9 |
| 2020-02-23 | 62.8458 | 62.8458 | 2.0e-9 |
| 2020-02-24 | 63.5043 | 63.5043 | 2.0e-9 |
| 2020-02-25 | 64.7502 | 64.7502 | 2.0e-9 |
| 2020-02-26 | 66.4458 | 66.4458 | 1.9e-9 |
| 2020-02-27 | 68.1351 | 68.1351 | 2.0e-9 |
| 2020-02-28 | 69.3421 | 69.3421 | 1.8e-9 |
| 2020-02-29 | 69.9501 | 69.9501 | 1.5e-9 |
| 2020-03-01 | 70.2847 | 70.2847 | 1.1e-9 |
| 2020-03-02 | 70.8681 | 70.8681 | 7.4e-10 |
| 2020-03-03 | 72.0341 | 72.0341 | 6.4e-10 |
| 2020-03-04 | 73.6454 | 73.6454 | 5.2e-10 |
| 2020-03-05 | 75.2462 | 75.2462 | 2.1e-10 |
| 2020-03-06 | 76.3608 | 76.3608 | 2.6e-10 |
| 2020-03-07 | 76.8728 | 76.8728 | 8.6e-10 |
| 2020-03-08 | 77.1081 | 77.1081 | 1.8e-9 |
| 2020-03-09 | 77.5890 | 77.5890 | 2.6e-9 |
| 2020-03-10 | 78.6499 | 78.6499 | 3.1e-9 |
| 2020-03-11 | 80.1539 | 80.1539 | 2.3e-9 |
| 2020-03-12 | 81.6453 | 81.6453 | 1.5e-9 |
| 2020-03-13 | 82.6484 | 82.6484 | 9.5e-10 |
| 2020-03-14 | 83.0473 | 83.0473 | 7.7e-10 |
| 2020-03-15 | 83.1680 | 83.1680 | 7.2e-10 |
| 2020-03-16 | 83.5332 | 83.5332 | 5.3e-10 |
| 2020-03-17 | 84.4773 | 84.4773 | 3.5e-10 |
| 2020-03-18 | 85.8636 | 85.8636 | 1.8e-10 |
| 2020-03-19 | 87.2367 | 87.2367 | 4.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-20 | 88.1213 | 88.1213 | 1.0e-10 |
| 2020-03-21 | 88.4017 | 88.4017 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-22 | 88.4041 | 88.4041 | 2.0e-10 |
| 2020-03-23 | 88.6514 | 88.6514 | 2.6e-10 |
| 2020-03-24 | 89.4783 | 89.4783 | 9.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-25 | 90.7480 | 90.7480 | 6.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-26 | 92.0055 | 92.0055 | 2.8e-10 |
| 2020-03-27 | 92.7756 | 92.7756 | 3.2e-10 |
| 2020-03-28 | 92.9426 | 92.9426 | 2.2e-10 |
| 2020-03-29 | 92.8330 | 92.8330 | 2.8e-12 |
| 2020-03-30 | 92.9698 | 92.9698 | 8.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-31 | 93.6876 | 93.6876 | 8.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-01 | 94.8500 | 94.8500 | 2.3e-10 |
| 2020-04-02 | 96.0019 | 96.0019 | 4.3e-10 |
| 2020-04-03 | 96.6682 | 96.6682 | 4.6e-10 |
| 2020-04-04 | 96.7333 | 96.7333 | 3.5e-10 |
| 2020-04-05 | 96.5238 | 96.5238 | 1.2e-10 |
| 2020-04-06 | 96.5625 | 96.5625 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-07 | 97.1844 | 97.1844 | 1.8e-10 |
| 2020-04-08 | 98.2529 | 98.2529 | 3.2e-10 |
| 2020-04-09 | 99.3130 | 99.3130 | 5.1e-10 |
| 2020-04-10 | 99.8896 | 99.8896 | 5.4e-10 |
| 2020-04-11 | 99.8672 | 99.8672 | 4.2e-10 |
| 2020-04-12 | 99.5722 | 99.5722 | 1.8e-10 |
| 2020-04-13 | 99.5277 | 99.5277 | 8.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-14 | 100.0685 | 100.0685 | 2.3e-10 |
| 2020-04-15 | 101.0579 | 101.0579 | 3.6e-10 |
| 2020-04-16 | 102.0411 | 102.0411 | 5.5e-10 |
| 2020-04-17 | 102.5430 | 102.5430 | 5.7e-10 |
| 2020-04-18 | 102.4479 | 102.4479 | 4.4e-10 |
| 2020-04-19 | 102.0823 | 102.0823 | 1.9e-10 |
| 2020-04-20 | 101.9693 | 101.9693 | 9.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-21 | 102.4435 | 102.4435 | 2.4e-10 |
| 2020-04-22 | 103.3684 | 103.3684 | 3.7e-10 |
| 2020-04-23 | 104.2890 | 104.2890 | 5.5e-10 |
| 2020-04-24 | 104.7302 | 104.7302 | 5.6e-10 |
| 2020-04-25 | 104.5763 | 104.5763 | 4.3e-10 |
| 2020-04-26 | 104.1538 | 104.1538 | 1.9e-10 |
| 2020-04-27 | 103.9856 | 103.9856 | 8.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-28 | 104.4065 | 104.4065 | 2.2e-10 |
| 2020-04-29 | 105.2798 | 105.2798 | 3.5e-10 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Fit | 102 ms | 121 ms | 1.2× faster |
| Predict | 1.00 ms | 3.32 ms | 3.3× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 21 µs | 447 µs | 21× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 144 µs | 2.27 ms | 16× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 161 ms | 1.43 s | 8.8× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```