Defaults, eight months of daily data

match flagged ← All logistic growth benchmarks

256 days with a weekly pattern. Over 100 rows, so both libraries fit with L-BFGS.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-weekly-256.json: 256 history rows and 280 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.0011 (0.0012% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	14.1790	14.1778	0.0011
2020-01-02	15.0159	15.0148	0.0011
2020-01-03	15.3857	15.3846	0.0011
2020-01-04	15.1505	15.1494	0.0010
2020-01-05	14.6604	14.6594	0.00099
2020-01-06	14.4556	14.4547	0.00095
2020-01-07	14.8248	14.8239	0.00092
2020-01-08	15.6558	15.6549	0.00085
2020-01-09	16.5103	16.5095	0.00081
2020-01-10	16.8979	16.8971	0.00077
2020-01-11	16.6805	16.6798	0.00073
2020-01-12	16.2084	16.2077	0.00069
2020-01-13	16.0217	16.0211	0.00064
2020-01-14	16.4091	16.4085	0.00060
2020-01-15	17.2584	17.2579	0.00053
2020-01-16	18.1313	18.1309	0.00048
2020-01-17	18.5374	18.5370	0.00043
2020-01-18	18.3387	18.3383	0.00040
2020-01-19	17.8853	17.8850	0.00036
2020-01-20	17.7175	17.7171	0.00033
2020-01-21	18.1238	18.1235	0.00030
2020-01-22	18.9921	18.9918	0.00024
2020-01-23	19.8841	19.8839	0.00020
2020-01-24	20.3093	20.3092	0.00016
2020-01-25	20.1299	20.1297	0.00013
2020-01-26	19.6958	19.6957	0.00011
2020-01-27	19.5474	19.5473	9.3e-5
2020-01-28	19.9732	19.9731	8.1e-5
2020-01-29	20.8610	20.8610	3.8e-5
2020-01-30	21.7727	21.7727	2.0e-5
2020-01-31	22.2176	22.2176	3.4e-6
2020-02-01	22.0579	22.0579	1.4e-5
2020-02-02	21.6437	21.6437	3.3e-5
2020-02-03	21.5151	21.5151	5.1e-5
2020-02-04	21.9607	21.9608	6.5e-5
2020-02-05	22.8685	22.8686	0.00011
2020-02-06	23.8001	23.8002	0.00013
2020-02-07	24.2650	24.2651	0.00015
2020-02-08	24.1252	24.1254	0.00016
2020-02-09	23.7310	23.7312	0.00018
2020-02-10	23.6225	23.6227	0.00020
2020-02-11	24.0882	24.0884	0.00022
2020-02-12	25.0160	25.0163	0.00025
2020-02-13	25.9677	25.9680	0.00024
2020-02-14	26.4527	26.4530	0.00024
2020-02-15	26.3331	26.3333	0.00024
2020-02-16	25.9590	25.9592	0.00024
2020-02-17	25.8705	25.8707	0.00024
2020-02-18	26.3562	26.3565	0.00023
2020-02-19	27.3041	27.3043	0.00026
2020-02-20	28.2757	28.2760	0.00025
2020-02-21	28.7807	28.7809	0.00024
2020-02-22	28.6809	28.6812	0.00024
2020-02-23	28.3266	28.3269	0.00023
2020-02-24	28.2579	28.2582	0.00023
2020-02-25	28.7634	28.7637	0.00022
2020-02-26	29.7309	29.7312	0.00024
2020-02-27	30.7222	30.7224	0.00023
2020-02-28	31.2467	31.2469	0.00022
2020-02-29	31.1663	31.1666	0.00022
2020-03-01	30.8314	30.8316	0.00021
2020-03-02	30.7819	30.7821	0.00021
2020-03-03	31.3066	31.3068	0.00019
2020-03-04	32.2931	32.2934	0.00021
2020-03-05	33.3034	33.3036	0.00021
2020-03-06	33.8466	33.8468	0.00020
2020-03-07	33.7850	33.7852	0.00019
2020-03-08	33.4686	33.4688	0.00019
2020-03-09	33.4376	33.4378	0.00018
2020-03-10	33.9805	33.9807	0.00018
2020-03-11	34.9852	34.9854	0.00020
2020-03-12	36.0134	36.0136	0.00019
2020-03-13	36.5744	36.5746	0.00018
2020-03-14	36.5305	36.5306	0.00018
2020-03-15	36.2315	36.2317	0.00017
2020-03-16	36.2178	36.2180	0.00017
2020-03-17	36.7778	36.7780	0.00016
2020-03-18	37.7994	37.7996	0.00018
2020-03-19	38.8443	38.8445	0.00017
2020-03-20	39.4219	39.4221	0.00017
2020-03-21	39.3942	39.3944	0.00016
2020-03-22	39.1114	39.1115	0.00016
2020-03-23	39.1135	39.1136	0.00015
2020-03-24	39.6892	39.6893	0.00014
2020-03-25	40.7261	40.7263	0.00016
2020-03-26	41.7862	41.7863	0.00016
2020-03-27	42.3787	42.3788	0.00015
2020-03-28	42.3656	42.3658	0.00014
2020-03-29	42.0972	42.0973	0.00014
2020-03-30	42.1134	42.1136	0.00013
2020-03-31	42.7030	42.7031	0.00012
2020-04-01	43.7535	43.7537	0.00014
2020-04-02	44.8269	44.8270	0.00013
2020-04-03	45.4324	45.4325	0.00013
2020-04-04	45.4321	45.4323	0.00012
2020-04-05	45.1761	45.1763	0.00011
2020-04-06	45.2045	45.2046	0.00011
2020-04-07	45.8059	45.8060	9.7e-5
2020-04-08	46.8681	46.8682	0.00011
2020-04-09	47.9527	47.9528	0.00010
2020-04-10	48.5691	48.5692	9.1e-5
2020-04-11	48.5795	48.5796	8.0e-5
2020-04-12	48.3338	48.3339	6.9e-5
2020-04-13	48.3722	48.3722	5.8e-5
2020-04-14	48.9832	48.9832	4.4e-5
2020-04-15	50.0546	50.0546	5.9e-5
2020-04-16	51.1481	51.1482	4.8e-5
2020-04-17	51.7732	51.7732	3.7e-5
2020-04-18	51.7918	51.7918	2.5e-5
2020-04-19	51.5540	51.5540	1.5e-5
2020-04-20	51.5999	51.5999	3.7e-6
2020-04-21	52.2181	52.2181	1.1e-5
2020-04-22	53.2964	53.2964	4.0e-6
2020-04-23	54.3964	54.3964	6.9e-6
2020-04-24	55.0276	55.0276	1.9e-5
2020-04-25	55.0520	55.0519	2.2e-5
2020-04-26	54.8196	54.8196	2.5e-5
2020-04-27	54.8705	54.8705	2.8e-5
2020-04-28	55.4934	55.4934	3.5e-5
2020-04-29	56.5760	56.5760	1.2e-5
2020-04-30	57.6799	57.6799	1.5e-5
2020-05-01	58.3147	58.3147	1.9e-5
2020-05-02	58.3422	58.3422	2.3e-5
2020-05-03	58.1126	58.1126	2.5e-5
2020-05-04	58.1660	58.1660	2.8e-5
2020-05-05	58.7910	58.7910	3.5e-5
2020-05-06	59.8753	59.8752	1.2e-5
2020-05-07	60.9806	60.9805	1.5e-5
2020-05-08	61.6163	61.6162	1.9e-5
2020-05-09	61.6444	61.6444	2.3e-5
2020-05-10	61.4150	61.4150	2.5e-5
2020-05-11	61.4683	61.4683	2.8e-5
2020-05-12	62.0927	62.0927	3.5e-5
2020-05-13	63.1761	63.1761	1.2e-5
2020-05-14	64.2802	64.2801	1.5e-5
2020-05-15	64.9143	64.9142	1.9e-5
2020-05-16	64.9404	64.9404	2.2e-5
2020-05-17	64.7087	64.7087	2.5e-5
2020-05-18	64.7593	64.7593	2.8e-5
2020-05-19	65.3807	65.3807	3.5e-5
2020-05-20	66.4607	66.4607	1.2e-5
2020-05-21	67.5610	67.5610	1.5e-5
2020-05-22	68.1910	68.1910	1.9e-5
2020-05-23	68.2127	68.2127	2.2e-5
2020-05-24	67.9763	67.9763	2.5e-5
2020-05-25	68.0217	68.0217	2.8e-5
2020-05-26	68.6377	68.6377	3.5e-5
2020-05-27	69.7119	69.7119	1.2e-5
2020-05-28	70.8061	70.8061	1.5e-5
2020-05-29	71.4297	71.4297	1.9e-5
2020-05-30	71.4447	71.4447	2.2e-5
2020-05-31	71.2012	71.2012	2.5e-5
2020-06-01	71.2393	71.2393	2.8e-5
2020-06-02	71.8476	71.8475	3.5e-5
2020-06-03	72.9138	72.9138	1.1e-5
2020-06-04	73.9997	73.9997	1.4e-5
2020-06-05	74.6148	74.6147	1.8e-5
2020-06-06	74.6209	74.6209	2.2e-5
2020-06-07	74.3682	74.3682	2.4e-5
2020-06-08	74.3969	74.3969	2.7e-5
2020-06-09	74.9955	74.9955	3.4e-5
2020-06-10	76.0518	76.0518	1.1e-5
2020-06-11	77.1275	77.1275	1.4e-5
2020-06-12	77.7320	77.7320	1.8e-5
2020-06-13	77.7274	77.7274	2.1e-5
2020-06-14	77.4638	77.4638	2.4e-5
2020-06-15	77.4812	77.4812	2.7e-5
2020-06-16	78.0684	78.0684	3.4e-5
2020-06-17	79.1130	79.1129	1.0e-5
2020-06-18	80.1768	80.1767	1.3e-5
2020-06-19	80.7691	80.7691	1.7e-5
2020-06-20	80.7522	80.7522	2.0e-5
2020-06-21	80.4760	80.4760	2.3e-5
2020-06-22	80.4807	80.4806	2.6e-5
2020-06-23	81.0548	81.0548	3.3e-5
2020-06-24	82.0863	82.0863	9.8e-6
2020-06-25	83.1367	83.1367	1.3e-5
2020-06-26	83.7156	83.7156	1.7e-5
2020-06-27	83.6849	83.6849	2.0e-5
2020-06-28	83.3949	83.3948	2.2e-5
2020-06-29	83.3855	83.3855	2.6e-5
2020-06-30	83.9455	83.9454	3.2e-5
2020-07-01	84.9625	84.9625	9.1e-6
2020-07-02	85.9985	85.9985	1.2e-5
2020-07-03	86.5627	86.5627	1.6e-5
2020-07-04	86.5173	86.5173	1.9e-5
2020-07-05	86.2124	86.2123	2.2e-5
2020-07-06	86.1880	86.1879	2.5e-5
2020-07-07	86.7328	86.7328	3.2e-5
2020-07-08	87.7346	87.7346	8.4e-6
2020-07-09	88.7552	88.7552	1.1e-5
2020-07-10	89.3040	89.3040	1.5e-5
2020-07-11	89.2430	89.2430	1.8e-5
2020-07-12	88.9224	88.9224	2.1e-5
2020-07-13	88.8823	88.8823	2.4e-5
2020-07-14	89.4113	89.4113	3.1e-5
2020-07-15	90.3972	90.3972	7.6e-6
2020-07-16	91.4019	91.4019	1.0e-5
2020-07-17	91.9346	91.9346	1.4e-5
2020-07-18	91.8575	91.8575	1.8e-5
2020-07-19	91.5208	91.5208	2.0e-5
2020-07-20	91.4645	91.4644	2.3e-5
2020-07-21	91.9772	91.9772	3.0e-5
2020-07-22	92.9469	92.9469	6.8e-6
2020-07-23	93.9352	93.9352	9.6e-6
2020-07-24	94.4516	94.4516	1.4e-5
2020-07-25	94.3581	94.3581	1.7e-5
2020-07-26	94.0050	94.0050	1.9e-5
2020-07-27	93.9322	93.9322	2.2e-5
2020-07-28	94.4286	94.4286	2.9e-5
2020-07-29	95.3818	95.3818	5.8e-6
2020-07-30	96.3537	96.3537	8.6e-6
2020-07-31	96.8536	96.8536	1.3e-5
2020-08-01	96.7437	96.7437	1.6e-5
2020-08-02	96.3741	96.3741	1.8e-5
2020-08-03	96.2849	96.2849	2.1e-5
2020-08-04	96.7649	96.7649	2.8e-5
2020-08-05	97.7017	97.7017	4.8e-6
2020-08-06	98.6572	98.6572	7.6e-6
2020-08-07	99.1408	99.1408	1.2e-5
2020-08-08	99.0146	99.0145	1.5e-5
2020-08-09	98.6287	98.6287	1.7e-5
2020-08-10	98.5233	98.5232	2.0e-5
2020-08-11	98.9870	98.9870	2.7e-5
2020-08-12	99.9076	99.9076	3.8e-6
2020-08-13	100.8470	100.8470	6.6e-6
2020-08-14	101.3145	101.3145	1.1e-5
2020-08-15	101.1723	101.1722	1.4e-5
2020-08-16	100.7704	100.7704	1.6e-5
2020-08-17	100.6491	100.6491	1.9e-5
2020-08-18	101.0969	101.0969	2.6e-5
2020-08-19	102.0018	102.0018	2.9e-6
2020-08-20	102.9254	102.9254	5.7e-6
2020-08-21	103.3773	103.3773	9.7e-6
2020-08-22	103.2194	103.2194	1.3e-5
2020-08-23	102.8020	102.8020	1.5e-5
2020-08-24	102.6652	102.6652	1.8e-5
2020-08-25	103.0977	103.0977	2.5e-5
2020-08-26	103.9873	103.9873	1.9e-6
2020-08-27	104.8957	104.8957	4.7e-6
2020-08-28	105.3324	105.3324	8.7e-6
2020-08-29	105.1595	105.1595	1.2e-5
2020-08-30	104.7271	104.7271	1.4e-5
2020-08-31	104.5755	104.5754	1.8e-5
2020-09-01	104.9932	104.9931	2.4e-5
2020-09-02	105.8680	105.8680	1.0e-6
2020-09-03	106.7618	106.7618	3.8e-6
2020-09-04	107.1840	107.1840	7.9e-6
2020-09-05	106.9966	106.9966	1.1e-5
2020-09-06	106.5499	106.5499	1.4e-5
2020-09-07	106.3840	106.3840	1.7e-5
2020-09-08	106.7876	106.7875	2.3e-5
2020-09-09	107.6483	107.6483	1.7e-7
2020-09-10	108.5282	108.5282	3.0e-6
2020-09-11	108.9365	108.9365	7.0e-6
2020-09-12	108.7355	108.7354	1.0e-5
2020-09-13	108.2751	108.2751	1.3e-5
2020-09-14	108.0957	108.0957	1.6e-5
2020-09-15	108.4858	108.4858	2.3e-5
2020-09-16	109.3332	109.3332	6.4e-7
2020-09-17	110.1999	110.1999	2.2e-6
2020-09-18	110.5951	110.5951	6.2e-6
2020-09-19	110.3810	110.3810	9.4e-6
2020-09-20	109.9078	109.9078	1.2e-5
2020-09-21	109.7155	109.7155	1.5e-5
2020-09-22	110.0929	110.0929	2.2e-5
2020-09-23	110.9278	110.9278	1.4e-6
2020-09-24	111.7820	111.7820	1.4e-6
2020-09-25	112.1648	112.1648	5.5e-6
2020-09-26	111.9385	111.9385	8.7e-6
2020-09-27	111.4531	111.4531	1.1e-5
2020-09-28	111.2488	111.2488	1.4e-5
2020-09-29	111.6143	111.6143	2.1e-5
2020-09-30	112.4374	112.4374	2.1e-6
2020-10-01	113.2798	113.2798	7.0e-7
2020-10-02	113.6511	113.6511	4.7e-6
2020-10-03	113.4132	113.4132	8.0e-6
2020-10-04	112.9165	112.9165	1.1e-5
2020-10-05	112.7009	112.7009	1.4e-5
2020-10-06	113.0552	113.0552	2.0e-5

Internal fit differences

The forecasts match, so this case passes. Both libraries search for the best-fitting parameters and stop when they are close enough. On this input they stopped at slightly different points, so these internal numbers differ by more than the threshold where we take a closer look.

Check	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Threshold
Fitting objective (lower is a better fit)	-1786.0298	-1786.0610	0.01
Stationarity residual (lower is closer to the best fit)	8818.1906	1349.2780	0.01

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Fit	37.7 ms	42.7 ms	1.1× faster
Predict	1.22 ms	3.82 ms	3.1× faster
Save model to JSON	19 µs	657 µs	36× faster
Load model from JSON	151 µs	2.89 ms	19× faster
Load and predict in a new process	161 ms	1.66 s	10× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}