Falling curve

match ← All logistic growth benchmarks

Values fall from about 86 to 11 under a fixed ceiling.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-declining-96.json: 96 history rows and 120 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 3.9e-11 (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	85.8177	85.8177	3.5e-11
2020-01-02	85.3656	85.3656	3.5e-11
2020-01-03	84.8969	84.8969	3.6e-11
2020-01-04	84.4114	84.4114	3.6e-11
2020-01-05	83.9089	83.9089	3.6e-11
2020-01-06	83.3891	83.3891	3.7e-11
2020-01-07	82.8517	82.8517	3.7e-11
2020-01-08	82.2966	82.2966	3.7e-11
2020-01-09	81.7237	81.7237	3.8e-11
2020-01-10	81.1327	81.1327	3.8e-11
2020-01-11	80.5236	80.5236	3.8e-11
2020-01-12	79.8962	79.8962	3.8e-11
2020-01-13	79.2505	79.2505	3.9e-11
2020-01-14	78.5865	78.5865	3.9e-11
2020-01-15	77.9040	77.9040	3.9e-11
2020-01-16	77.2033	77.2033	3.9e-11
2020-01-17	76.4842	76.4842	3.9e-11
2020-01-18	75.7470	75.7470	3.9e-11
2020-01-19	74.9917	74.9917	3.9e-11
2020-01-20	74.2185	74.2185	3.8e-11
2020-01-21	73.4276	73.4276	3.8e-11
2020-01-22	72.6193	72.6193	3.8e-11
2020-01-23	71.7938	71.7938	3.8e-11
2020-01-24	70.9516	70.9516	3.7e-11
2020-01-25	70.0929	70.0929	3.7e-11
2020-01-26	69.2181	69.2181	3.6e-11
2020-01-27	68.3279	68.3279	3.6e-11
2020-01-28	67.4225	67.4225	3.5e-11
2020-01-29	66.5027	66.5027	3.4e-11
2020-01-30	65.5689	65.5689	3.4e-11
2020-01-31	64.6218	64.6218	3.3e-11
2020-02-01	63.6621	63.6621	3.2e-11
2020-02-02	62.6904	62.6904	3.1e-11
2020-02-03	61.7074	61.7074	3.0e-11
2020-02-04	60.7141	60.7141	3.0e-11
2020-02-05	59.7111	59.7111	2.9e-11
2020-02-06	58.6993	58.6993	2.8e-11
2020-02-07	57.6795	57.6795	2.6e-11
2020-02-08	56.6526	56.6526	2.5e-11
2020-02-09	55.6200	55.6200	2.4e-11
2020-02-10	54.5821	54.5821	2.3e-11
2020-02-11	53.5398	53.5398	2.2e-11
2020-02-12	52.4943	52.4943	2.1e-11
2020-02-13	51.4463	51.4463	1.9e-11
2020-02-14	50.3969	50.3969	1.8e-11
2020-02-15	49.3470	49.3470	1.7e-11
2020-02-16	48.2975	48.2975	1.6e-11
2020-02-17	47.2496	47.2496	1.4e-11
2020-02-18	46.2040	46.2040	1.3e-11
2020-02-19	45.1618	45.1618	1.2e-11
2020-02-20	44.1238	44.1238	1.0e-11
2020-02-21	43.0910	43.0910	9.2e-12
2020-02-22	42.0643	42.0643	7.9e-12
2020-02-23	41.0445	41.0445	6.6e-12
2020-02-24	40.0325	40.0325	5.3e-12
2020-02-25	39.0290	39.0290	4.1e-12
2020-02-26	38.0349	38.0349	2.9e-12
2020-02-27	37.0508	37.0508	1.7e-12
2020-02-28	36.0776	36.0776	5.2e-13
2020-02-29	35.1159	35.1159	6.4e-13
2020-03-01	34.1663	34.1663	1.8e-12
2020-03-02	33.2294	33.2294	2.8e-12
2020-03-03	32.3057	32.3057	3.9e-12
2020-03-04	31.3959	31.3959	4.9e-12
2020-03-05	30.5003	30.5003	5.9e-12
2020-03-06	29.6195	29.6195	6.8e-12
2020-03-07	28.7538	28.7538	7.7e-12
2020-03-08	27.9035	27.9035	8.5e-12
2020-03-09	27.0690	27.0690	9.4e-12
2020-03-10	26.2506	26.2506	1.0e-11
2020-03-11	25.4485	25.4485	1.1e-11
2020-03-12	24.6629	24.6629	1.2e-11
2020-03-13	23.8940	23.8940	1.2e-11
2020-03-14	23.1418	23.1418	1.3e-11
2020-03-15	22.4065	22.4065	1.3e-11
2020-03-16	21.6882	21.6882	1.4e-11
2020-03-17	20.9868	20.9868	1.4e-11
2020-03-18	20.3023	20.3023	1.5e-11
2020-03-19	19.6348	19.6348	1.5e-11
2020-03-20	18.9842	18.9842	1.6e-11
2020-03-21	18.3504	18.3504	1.6e-11
2020-03-22	17.7332	17.7332	1.6e-11
2020-03-23	17.1325	17.1325	1.6e-11
2020-03-24	16.5482	16.5482	1.7e-11
2020-03-25	15.9802	15.9802	1.7e-11
2020-03-26	15.4281	15.4281	1.7e-11
2020-03-27	14.8918	14.8918	1.7e-11
2020-03-28	14.3712	14.3712	1.7e-11
2020-03-29	13.8658	13.8658	1.7e-11
2020-03-30	13.3756	13.3756	1.7e-11
2020-03-31	12.9001	12.9001	1.7e-11
2020-04-01	12.4393	12.4393	1.7e-11
2020-04-02	11.9927	11.9927	1.7e-11
2020-04-03	11.5601	11.5601	1.7e-11
2020-04-04	11.1412	11.1412	1.7e-11
2020-04-05	10.7357	10.7357	1.7e-11
2020-04-06	10.3433	10.3433	1.7e-11
2020-04-07	9.9637	9.9637	1.7e-11
2020-04-08	9.5966	9.5966	1.7e-11
2020-04-09	9.2417	9.2417	1.7e-11
2020-04-10	8.8987	8.8987	1.7e-11
2020-04-11	8.5673	8.5673	1.6e-11
2020-04-12	8.2471	8.2471	1.6e-11
2020-04-13	7.9379	7.9379	1.6e-11
2020-04-14	7.6394	7.6394	1.6e-11
2020-04-15	7.3513	7.3513	1.6e-11
2020-04-16	7.0732	7.0732	1.5e-11
2020-04-17	6.8049	6.8049	1.5e-11
2020-04-18	6.5461	6.5461	1.5e-11
2020-04-19	6.2965	6.2965	1.5e-11
2020-04-20	6.0558	6.0558	1.4e-11
2020-04-21	5.8238	5.8238	1.4e-11
2020-04-22	5.6001	5.6001	1.4e-11
2020-04-23	5.3846	5.3846	1.4e-11
2020-04-24	5.1770	5.1770	1.3e-11
2020-04-25	4.9769	4.9769	1.3e-11
2020-04-26	4.7842	4.7842	1.3e-11
2020-04-27	4.5987	4.5987	1.3e-11
2020-04-28	4.4200	4.4200	1.2e-11
2020-04-29	4.2479	4.2479	1.2e-11

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Fit	8.25 ms	16.2 ms	2.0× faster
Predict	846 µs	3.71 ms	4.4× faster
Save model to JSON	40 µs	493 µs	12× faster
Load model from JSON	161 µs	2.68 ms	17× faster
Load and predict in a new process	177 ms	1.70 s	9.6× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "explicit",
      "timestamps": [
        "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000Z"
      ]
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}