---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/logistic/logistic-reconcile-conditional.md
---

# Switchable weekly pattern

 [← All logistic growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/logistic)

A weekly pattern that only applies on rows marked active.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-conditional-96.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-conditional-96.json): 96 history rows and 120 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **4.8e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-01-01 | 14.1882 | 14.1882 | 5.7e-12 |
| 2020-01-02 | 15.3458 | 15.3458 | 6.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-03 | 16.0443 | 16.0443 | 6.4e-12 |
| 2020-01-04 | 16.1815 | 16.1815 | 6.9e-12 |
| 2020-01-05 | 16.0672 | 16.0672 | 7.6e-12 |
| 2020-01-06 | 17.0165 | 17.0165 | 8.5e-12 |
| 2020-01-07 | 17.0171 | 17.0171 | 9.6e-12 |
| 2020-01-08 | 18.2694 | 18.2694 | 1.0e-11 |
| 2020-01-09 | 19.5471 | 19.5471 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-01-10 | 20.3679 | 20.3679 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-01-11 | 20.2813 | 20.2813 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-12 | 20.6390 | 20.6390 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-13 | 20.9313 | 20.9313 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-01-14 | 21.8413 | 21.8413 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-01-15 | 23.2208 | 23.2208 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-16 | 24.0007 | 24.0007 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-17 | 25.5750 | 25.5750 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-18 | 25.9637 | 25.9637 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-01-19 | 26.1020 | 26.1020 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-01-20 | 26.5217 | 26.5217 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-01-21 | 28.1750 | 28.1750 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-01-22 | 29.0637 | 29.0637 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-23 | 30.5937 | 30.5937 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-24 | 31.6656 | 31.6656 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-01-25 | 32.1756 | 32.1756 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-01-26 | 32.7828 | 32.7828 | 2.5e-11 |
| 2020-01-27 | 32.9699 | 32.9699 | 2.6e-11 |
| 2020-01-28 | 34.1210 | 34.1210 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-01-29 | 35.7377 | 35.7377 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-01-30 | 37.3759 | 37.3759 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-01-31 | 37.7771 | 37.7771 | 3.0e-11 |
| 2020-02-01 | 39.1636 | 39.1636 | 3.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-02 | 39.5181 | 39.5181 | 3.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-03 | 40.1474 | 40.1474 | 3.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-04 | 41.3864 | 41.3864 | 3.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-05 | 43.0855 | 43.0855 | 3.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-06 | 44.8024 | 44.8024 | 3.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-07 | 46.0517 | 46.0517 | 3.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-08 | 46.7298 | 46.7298 | 3.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-09 | 47.1460 | 47.1460 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-10 | 48.6138 | 48.6138 | 4.0e-11 |
| 2020-02-11 | 49.1197 | 49.1197 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-12 | 50.8629 | 50.8629 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-13 | 52.6161 | 52.6161 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-14 | 53.8958 | 53.8958 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-15 | 54.2505 | 54.2505 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-16 | 55.0307 | 55.0307 | 4.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-17 | 55.7258 | 55.7258 | 4.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-18 | 57.0178 | 57.0178 | 4.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-19 | 58.7577 | 58.7577 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-20 | 59.8753 | 59.8753 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-21 | 61.7639 | 61.7639 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-22 | 62.4427 | 62.4427 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-23 | 62.8461 | 62.8461 | 4.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-24 | 63.5052 | 63.5052 | 4.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-25 | 65.3718 | 65.3718 | 4.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-26 | 66.4469 | 66.4469 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-27 | 68.1360 | 68.1360 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-28 | 69.3395 | 69.3395 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-29 | 69.9533 | 69.9533 | 4.7e-11 |
| 2020-03-01 | 70.6359 | 70.6359 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-02 | 70.8704 | 70.8704 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-03 | 72.0404 | 72.0404 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-04 | 73.6478 | 73.6478 | 4.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-05 | 75.2484 | 75.2484 | 4.7e-11 |
| 2020-03-06 | 75.5839 | 75.5839 | 4.7e-11 |
| 2020-03-07 | 76.8770 | 76.8770 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-08 | 77.1107 | 77.1107 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-09 | 77.5922 | 77.5922 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-10 | 78.6569 | 78.6569 | 4.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-11 | 80.1558 | 80.1558 | 4.5e-11 |
| 2020-03-12 | 81.6471 | 81.6471 | 4.5e-11 |
| 2020-03-13 | 82.6462 | 82.6462 | 4.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-14 | 83.0502 | 83.0502 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-15 | 83.1688 | 83.1688 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-16 | 84.3168 | 84.3168 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-17 | 84.4817 | 84.4817 | 4.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-18 | 85.8635 | 85.8635 | 4.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-19 | 87.2359 | 87.2359 | 4.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-20 | 88.1166 | 88.1166 | 4.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-21 | 88.0550 | 88.0550 | 4.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-22 | 88.4027 | 88.4027 | 3.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-23 | 88.6502 | 88.6502 | 3.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-24 | 89.4806 | 89.4806 | 3.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-25 | 90.7460 | 90.7460 | 3.7e-11 |
| 2020-03-26 | 91.3774 | 91.3774 | 3.6e-11 |
| 2020-03-27 | 92.7692 | 92.7692 | 3.5e-11 |
| 2020-03-28 | 92.9416 | 92.9416 | 3.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-29 | 92.8301 | 92.8301 | 3.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-30 | 92.9672 | 92.9672 | 3.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-31 | 94.3053 | 94.3053 | 3.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-01 | 94.8469 | 94.8469 | 3.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-02 | 95.9983 | 95.9983 | 3.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-03 | 96.6608 | 96.6608 | 3.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-04 | 96.7314 | 96.7314 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-05 | 96.8696 | 96.8696 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-06 | 96.5592 | 96.5592 | 2.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-07 | 97.1848 | 97.1848 | 2.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-08 | 98.2492 | 98.2492 | 2.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-09 | 99.3088 | 99.3088 | 2.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-10 | 99.1063 | 99.1063 | 2.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-11 | 99.8648 | 99.8648 | 2.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-12 | 99.5682 | 99.5682 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-13 | 99.5241 | 99.5241 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-14 | 100.0687 | 100.0687 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-15 | 101.0534 | 101.0534 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-16 | 102.0369 | 102.0369 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-17 | 102.5351 | 102.5351 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-18 | 102.4455 | 102.4455 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-19 | 102.0783 | 102.0783 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-20 | 102.7484 | 102.7484 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-21 | 102.4437 | 102.4437 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-22 | 103.3646 | 103.3646 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-23 | 104.2849 | 104.2849 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-24 | 104.7224 | 104.7224 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-25 | 104.2269 | 104.2269 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-26 | 104.1499 | 104.1499 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-27 | 103.9822 | 103.9822 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-28 | 104.4070 | 104.4070 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-29 | 105.2763 | 105.2763 | 1.5e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Fit | 17.1 ms | 27.1 ms | 1.6× faster |
| Predict | 772 µs | 3.44 ms | 4.5× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 18 µs | 473 µs | 26× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 141 µs | 2.43 ms | 17× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 171 ms | 1.43 s | 8.4× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "explicit",
      "timestamps": [
        "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000Z"
      ]
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly-custom",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10,
        "conditionName": "active"
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```