---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/logistic/logistic-reconcile-basic-96-explicit-absmax.md
---

# One hand-picked changepoint, absmax scaling

 [← All logistic growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/logistic)

96 daily rows rising toward a ceiling of about 100, with a little noise. Prediction covers the history and 24 more days. The rate may change on 8 February. Values are divided by their largest distance from the floor.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-basic-96.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-basic-96.json): 96 history rows and 120 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **2.4e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-01-01 | 14.1879 | 14.1879 | 2.2e-13 |
| 2020-01-02 | 14.7199 | 14.7199 | 8.9e-15 |
| 2020-01-03 | 15.2686 | 15.2686 | 2.1e-13 |
| 2020-01-04 | 15.8340 | 15.8340 | 4.6e-13 |
| 2020-01-05 | 16.4165 | 16.4165 | 7.1e-13 |
| 2020-01-06 | 17.0162 | 17.0162 | 9.7e-13 |
| 2020-01-07 | 17.6335 | 17.6335 | 1.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-08 | 18.2684 | 18.2684 | 1.6e-12 |
| 2020-01-09 | 18.9213 | 18.9213 | 1.9e-12 |
| 2020-01-10 | 19.5921 | 19.5921 | 2.2e-12 |
| 2020-01-11 | 20.2811 | 20.2811 | 2.5e-12 |
| 2020-01-12 | 20.9883 | 20.9883 | 2.9e-12 |
| 2020-01-13 | 21.7138 | 21.7138 | 3.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-14 | 22.4577 | 22.4577 | 3.7e-12 |
| 2020-01-15 | 23.2199 | 23.2199 | 4.1e-12 |
| 2020-01-16 | 24.0005 | 24.0005 | 4.5e-12 |
| 2020-01-17 | 24.7993 | 24.7993 | 4.9e-12 |
| 2020-01-18 | 25.6163 | 25.6163 | 5.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-19 | 26.4514 | 26.4514 | 5.8e-12 |
| 2020-01-20 | 27.3043 | 27.3043 | 6.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-21 | 28.1749 | 28.1749 | 6.8e-12 |
| 2020-01-22 | 29.0629 | 29.0629 | 7.2e-12 |
| 2020-01-23 | 29.9681 | 29.9681 | 7.7e-12 |
| 2020-01-24 | 30.8900 | 30.8900 | 8.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-25 | 31.8284 | 31.8284 | 8.8e-12 |
| 2020-01-26 | 32.7827 | 32.7827 | 9.3e-12 |
| 2020-01-27 | 33.7526 | 33.7526 | 9.9e-12 |
| 2020-01-28 | 34.7376 | 34.7376 | 1.0e-11 |
| 2020-01-29 | 35.7371 | 35.7371 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-01-30 | 36.7504 | 36.7504 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-01-31 | 37.7771 | 37.7771 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-01 | 38.8165 | 38.8165 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-02 | 39.8677 | 39.8677 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-03 | 40.9302 | 40.9302 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-04 | 42.0031 | 42.0031 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-05 | 43.0857 | 43.0857 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-06 | 44.1771 | 44.1771 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-02-07 | 45.2764 | 45.2764 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-08 | 46.3828 | 46.3828 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-02-09 | 47.4958 | 47.4958 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-02-10 | 48.6140 | 48.6140 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-11 | 49.7365 | 49.7365 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-02-12 | 50.8624 | 50.8624 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-13 | 51.9907 | 51.9907 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-14 | 53.1204 | 53.1204 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-02-15 | 54.2507 | 54.2507 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-02-16 | 55.3804 | 55.3804 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-02-17 | 56.5087 | 56.5087 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-18 | 57.6346 | 57.6346 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-19 | 58.7571 | 58.7571 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-02-20 | 59.8754 | 59.8754 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-21 | 60.9885 | 60.9885 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-22 | 62.0955 | 62.0955 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-02-23 | 63.1956 | 63.1956 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-24 | 64.2880 | 64.2880 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-25 | 65.3718 | 65.3718 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-26 | 66.4462 | 66.4462 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-02-27 | 67.5105 | 67.5105 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-28 | 68.5640 | 68.5640 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-02-29 | 69.6060 | 69.6060 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-01 | 70.6359 | 70.6359 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-02 | 71.6530 | 71.6530 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-03 | 72.6569 | 72.6569 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-04 | 73.6470 | 73.6470 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-05 | 74.6227 | 74.6227 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-06 | 75.5838 | 75.5838 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-07 | 76.5297 | 76.5297 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-08 | 77.4601 | 77.4601 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-09 | 78.3748 | 78.3748 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-10 | 79.2734 | 79.2734 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-03-11 | 80.1556 | 80.1556 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-12 | 81.0214 | 81.0214 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-13 | 81.8705 | 81.8705 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-14 | 82.7028 | 82.7028 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-15 | 83.5182 | 83.5182 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-03-16 | 84.3166 | 84.3166 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-17 | 85.0981 | 85.0981 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-18 | 85.8626 | 85.8626 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-19 | 86.6102 | 86.6102 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-03-20 | 87.3409 | 87.3409 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-21 | 88.0548 | 88.0548 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-22 | 88.7520 | 88.7520 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-23 | 89.4327 | 89.4327 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-03-24 | 90.0970 | 90.0970 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-25 | 90.7451 | 90.7451 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-26 | 91.3772 | 91.3772 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-03-27 | 91.9934 | 91.9934 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-28 | 92.5941 | 92.5941 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-29 | 93.1795 | 93.1795 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-03-30 | 93.7497 | 93.7497 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-03-31 | 94.3051 | 94.3051 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-01 | 94.8460 | 94.8460 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-02 | 95.3725 | 95.3725 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-03 | 95.8851 | 95.8851 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-04 | 96.3839 | 96.3839 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-05 | 96.8694 | 96.8694 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-06 | 97.3417 | 97.3417 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-07 | 97.8012 | 97.8012 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-08 | 98.2483 | 98.2483 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-09 | 98.6831 | 98.6831 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-10 | 99.1060 | 99.1060 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-11 | 99.5174 | 99.5174 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-12 | 99.9175 | 99.9175 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-13 | 100.3066 | 100.3066 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-14 | 100.6851 | 100.6851 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-15 | 101.0532 | 101.0532 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-16 | 101.4112 | 101.4112 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-17 | 101.7594 | 101.7594 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-18 | 102.0981 | 102.0981 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-19 | 102.4276 | 102.4276 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-20 | 102.7482 | 102.7482 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-21 | 103.0602 | 103.0602 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-22 | 103.3637 | 103.3637 | 1.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-23 | 103.6592 | 103.6592 | 1.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-24 | 103.9468 | 103.9468 | 9.8e-12 |
| 2020-04-25 | 104.2267 | 104.2267 | 9.6e-12 |
| 2020-04-26 | 104.4993 | 104.4993 | 9.3e-12 |
| 2020-04-27 | 104.7648 | 104.7648 | 9.0e-12 |
| 2020-04-28 | 105.0234 | 105.0234 | 8.7e-12 |
| 2020-04-29 | 105.2754 | 105.2754 | 8.5e-12 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Fit | 7.91 ms | 15.4 ms | 1.9× faster |
| Predict | 708 µs | 2.93 ms | 4.1× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 23 µs | 444 µs | 19× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 137 µs | 2.26 ms | 16× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 165 ms | 1.44 s | 8.7× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "explicit",
      "timestamps": [
        "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000Z"
      ]
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```