Eight months of daily data

match ← All logistic growth benchmarks

256 daily rows on the same curve, fitted with L-BFGS.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v2/logistic-basic-256.json: 256 history rows and 280 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 2.2e-11 (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	14.1863	14.1863	1.5e-11
2020-01-02	14.3898	14.3898	1.5e-11
2020-01-03	14.5958	14.5958	1.5e-11
2020-01-04	14.8042	14.8042	1.6e-11
2020-01-05	15.0152	15.0152	1.6e-11
2020-01-06	15.2287	15.2287	1.6e-11
2020-01-07	15.4447	15.4447	1.6e-11
2020-01-08	15.6633	15.6633	1.6e-11
2020-01-09	15.8844	15.8844	1.6e-11
2020-01-10	16.1081	16.1081	1.6e-11
2020-01-11	16.3345	16.3345	1.6e-11
2020-01-12	16.5634	16.5634	1.7e-11
2020-01-13	16.7950	16.7950	1.7e-11
2020-01-14	17.0292	17.0292	1.7e-11
2020-01-15	17.2661	17.2661	1.7e-11
2020-01-16	17.5057	17.5057	1.7e-11
2020-01-17	17.7479	17.7479	1.7e-11
2020-01-18	17.9929	17.9929	1.7e-11
2020-01-19	18.2405	18.2405	1.7e-11
2020-01-20	18.4909	18.4909	1.8e-11
2020-01-21	18.7441	18.7441	1.8e-11
2020-01-22	18.9999	18.9999	1.8e-11
2020-01-23	19.2586	19.2586	1.8e-11
2020-01-24	19.5200	19.5200	1.8e-11
2020-01-25	19.7842	19.7842	1.8e-11
2020-01-26	20.0512	20.0512	1.8e-11
2020-01-27	20.3210	20.3210	1.8e-11
2020-01-28	20.5936	20.5936	1.8e-11
2020-01-29	20.8690	20.8690	1.9e-11
2020-01-30	21.1472	21.1472	1.9e-11
2020-01-31	21.4283	21.4283	1.9e-11
2020-02-01	21.7122	21.7122	1.9e-11
2020-02-02	21.9990	21.9990	1.9e-11
2020-02-03	22.2886	22.2886	1.9e-11
2020-02-04	22.5810	22.5810	1.9e-11
2020-02-05	22.8764	22.8764	1.9e-11
2020-02-06	23.1746	23.1746	1.9e-11
2020-02-07	23.4756	23.4756	2.0e-11
2020-02-08	23.7795	23.7795	2.0e-11
2020-02-09	24.0863	24.0863	2.0e-11
2020-02-10	24.3960	24.3960	2.0e-11
2020-02-11	24.7086	24.7086	2.0e-11
2020-02-12	25.0240	25.0240	2.0e-11
2020-02-13	25.3423	25.3423	2.0e-11
2020-02-14	25.6635	25.6635	2.0e-11
2020-02-15	25.9875	25.9875	2.0e-11
2020-02-16	26.3144	26.3144	2.0e-11
2020-02-17	26.6442	26.6442	2.0e-11
2020-02-18	26.9767	26.9767	2.1e-11
2020-02-19	27.3122	27.3122	2.1e-11
2020-02-20	27.6504	27.6504	2.1e-11
2020-02-21	27.9915	27.9915	2.1e-11
2020-02-22	28.3355	28.3355	2.1e-11
2020-02-23	28.6822	28.6822	2.1e-11
2020-02-24	29.0317	29.0317	2.1e-11
2020-02-25	29.3840	29.3840	2.1e-11
2020-02-26	29.7391	29.7391	2.1e-11
2020-02-27	30.0970	30.0970	2.1e-11
2020-02-28	30.4576	30.4576	2.1e-11
2020-02-29	30.8210	30.8210	2.1e-11
2020-03-01	31.1871	31.1871	2.1e-11
2020-03-02	31.5558	31.5558	2.1e-11
2020-03-03	31.9273	31.9273	2.1e-11
2020-03-04	32.3015	32.3015	2.1e-11
2020-03-05	32.6783	32.6783	2.1e-11
2020-03-06	33.0577	33.0577	2.1e-11
2020-03-07	33.4397	33.4397	2.2e-11
2020-03-08	33.8244	33.8244	2.2e-11
2020-03-09	34.2116	34.2116	2.2e-11
2020-03-10	34.6013	34.6013	2.2e-11
2020-03-11	34.9936	34.9936	2.2e-11
2020-03-12	35.3884	35.3884	2.2e-11
2020-03-13	35.7856	35.7856	2.2e-11
2020-03-14	36.1853	36.1853	2.2e-11
2020-03-15	36.5874	36.5874	2.2e-11
2020-03-16	36.9919	36.9919	2.2e-11
2020-03-17	37.3988	37.3988	2.2e-11
2020-03-18	37.8080	37.8080	2.2e-11
2020-03-19	38.2194	38.2194	2.2e-11
2020-03-20	38.6332	38.6332	2.2e-11
2020-03-21	39.0492	39.0492	2.2e-11
2020-03-22	39.4674	39.4674	2.2e-11
2020-03-23	39.8877	39.8877	2.2e-11
2020-03-24	40.3102	40.3102	2.2e-11
2020-03-25	40.7348	40.7348	2.2e-11
2020-03-26	41.1614	41.1614	2.2e-11
2020-03-27	41.5901	41.5901	2.2e-11
2020-03-28	42.0207	42.0207	2.2e-11
2020-03-29	42.4533	42.4533	2.2e-11
2020-03-30	42.8878	42.8878	2.1e-11
2020-03-31	43.3242	43.3242	2.1e-11
2020-04-01	43.7623	43.7623	2.1e-11
2020-04-02	44.2023	44.2023	2.1e-11
2020-04-03	44.6440	44.6440	2.1e-11
2020-04-04	45.0874	45.0874	2.1e-11
2020-04-05	45.5324	45.5324	2.1e-11
2020-04-06	45.9791	45.9791	2.1e-11
2020-04-07	46.4273	46.4273	2.1e-11
2020-04-08	46.8770	46.8770	2.1e-11
2020-04-09	47.3282	47.3282	2.1e-11
2020-04-10	47.7808	47.7808	2.1e-11
2020-04-11	48.2348	48.2348	2.1e-11
2020-04-12	48.6901	48.6901	2.1e-11
2020-04-13	49.1467	49.1467	2.1e-11
2020-04-14	49.6045	49.6045	2.1e-11
2020-04-15	50.0635	50.0635	2.0e-11
2020-04-16	50.5236	50.5236	2.0e-11
2020-04-17	50.9848	50.9848	2.0e-11
2020-04-18	51.4470	51.4470	2.0e-11
2020-04-19	51.9102	51.9102	2.0e-11
2020-04-20	52.3744	52.3744	2.0e-11
2020-04-21	52.8394	52.8394	2.0e-11
2020-04-22	53.3052	53.3052	2.0e-11
2020-04-23	53.7718	53.7718	2.0e-11
2020-04-24	54.2392	54.2392	2.0e-11
2020-04-25	54.7072	54.7072	1.9e-11
2020-04-26	55.1758	55.1758	1.9e-11
2020-04-27	55.6449	55.6449	1.9e-11
2020-04-28	56.1146	56.1146	1.9e-11
2020-04-29	56.5848	56.5848	1.9e-11
2020-04-30	57.0553	57.0553	1.9e-11
2020-05-01	57.5262	57.5262	1.9e-11
2020-05-02	57.9974	57.9974	1.9e-11
2020-05-03	58.4688	58.4688	1.8e-11
2020-05-04	58.9404	58.9404	1.8e-11
2020-05-05	59.4122	59.4122	1.8e-11
2020-05-06	59.8840	59.8840	1.8e-11
2020-05-07	60.3559	60.3559	1.8e-11
2020-05-08	60.8277	60.8277	1.8e-11
2020-05-09	61.2995	61.2995	1.8e-11
2020-05-10	61.7711	61.7711	1.7e-11
2020-05-11	62.2426	62.2426	1.7e-11
2020-05-12	62.7138	62.7138	1.7e-11
2020-05-13	63.1848	63.1848	1.7e-11
2020-05-14	63.6554	63.6554	1.7e-11
2020-05-15	64.1257	64.1257	1.7e-11
2020-05-16	64.5955	64.5955	1.7e-11
2020-05-17	65.0648	65.0648	1.6e-11
2020-05-18	65.5336	65.5336	1.6e-11
2020-05-19	66.0018	66.0018	1.6e-11
2020-05-20	66.4693	66.4693	1.6e-11
2020-05-21	66.9362	66.9362	1.6e-11
2020-05-22	67.4024	67.4024	1.6e-11
2020-05-23	67.8677	67.8677	1.5e-11
2020-05-24	68.3323	68.3323	1.5e-11
2020-05-25	68.7960	68.7960	1.5e-11
2020-05-26	69.2587	69.2587	1.5e-11
2020-05-27	69.7205	69.7205	1.5e-11
2020-05-28	70.1813	70.1813	1.5e-11
2020-05-29	70.6410	70.6410	1.4e-11
2020-05-30	71.0996	71.0996	1.4e-11
2020-05-31	71.5571	71.5571	1.4e-11
2020-06-01	72.0134	72.0134	1.4e-11
2020-06-02	72.4685	72.4685	1.4e-11
2020-06-03	72.9223	72.9223	1.4e-11
2020-06-04	73.3748	73.3748	1.3e-11
2020-06-05	73.8260	73.8260	1.3e-11
2020-06-06	74.2758	74.2758	1.3e-11
2020-06-07	74.7241	74.7241	1.3e-11
2020-06-08	75.1710	75.1710	1.3e-11
2020-06-09	75.6164	75.6164	1.3e-11
2020-06-10	76.0603	76.0603	1.2e-11
2020-06-11	76.5026	76.5026	1.2e-11
2020-06-12	76.9432	76.9432	1.2e-11
2020-06-13	77.3823	77.3823	1.2e-11
2020-06-14	77.8196	77.8196	1.2e-11
2020-06-15	78.2553	78.2553	1.1e-11
2020-06-16	78.6892	78.6892	1.1e-11
2020-06-17	79.1214	79.1214	1.1e-11
2020-06-18	79.5518	79.5518	1.1e-11
2020-06-19	79.9803	79.9803	1.1e-11
2020-06-20	80.4070	80.4070	1.1e-11
2020-06-21	80.8318	80.8318	1.0e-11
2020-06-22	81.2547	81.2547	1.0e-11
2020-06-23	81.6757	81.6757	1.0e-11
2020-06-24	82.0947	82.0947	9.9e-12
2020-06-25	82.5117	82.5117	9.8e-12
2020-06-26	82.9267	82.9267	9.6e-12
2020-06-27	83.3397	83.3397	9.4e-12
2020-06-28	83.7506	83.7506	9.3e-12
2020-06-29	84.1595	84.1595	9.1e-12
2020-06-30	84.5663	84.5663	9.0e-12
2020-07-01	84.9709	84.9709	8.8e-12
2020-07-02	85.3734	85.3734	8.6e-12
2020-07-03	85.7738	85.7738	8.5e-12
2020-07-04	86.1720	86.1720	8.3e-12
2020-07-05	86.5681	86.5681	8.1e-12
2020-07-06	86.9619	86.9619	8.0e-12
2020-07-07	87.3536	87.3536	7.8e-12
2020-07-08	87.7430	87.7430	7.7e-12
2020-07-09	88.1301	88.1301	7.5e-12
2020-07-10	88.5151	88.5151	7.4e-12
2020-07-11	88.8977	88.8977	7.2e-12
2020-07-12	89.2781	89.2781	7.1e-12
2020-07-13	89.6562	89.6562	6.9e-12
2020-07-14	90.0320	90.0320	6.8e-12
2020-07-15	90.4055	90.4055	6.6e-12
2020-07-16	90.7767	90.7767	6.5e-12
2020-07-17	91.1456	91.1456	6.3e-12
2020-07-18	91.5122	91.5122	6.2e-12
2020-07-19	91.8764	91.8764	6.0e-12
2020-07-20	92.2384	92.2384	5.9e-12
2020-07-21	92.5979	92.5979	5.8e-12
2020-07-22	92.9552	92.9552	5.6e-12
2020-07-23	93.3100	93.3100	5.5e-12
2020-07-24	93.6626	93.6626	5.4e-12
2020-07-25	94.0128	94.0128	5.2e-12
2020-07-26	94.3606	94.3606	5.1e-12
2020-07-27	94.7061	94.7061	5.0e-12
2020-07-28	95.0493	95.0493	4.8e-12
2020-07-29	95.3900	95.3900	4.7e-12
2020-07-30	95.7285	95.7285	4.6e-12
2020-07-31	96.0646	96.0646	4.5e-12
2020-08-01	96.3983	96.3983	4.3e-12
2020-08-02	96.7297	96.7297	4.2e-12
2020-08-03	97.0588	97.0588	4.1e-12
2020-08-04	97.3855	97.3855	4.0e-12
2020-08-05	97.7099	97.7099	3.9e-12
2020-08-06	98.0320	98.0320	3.8e-12
2020-08-07	98.3517	98.3517	3.7e-12
2020-08-08	98.6692	98.6692	3.5e-12
2020-08-09	98.9843	98.9843	3.4e-12
2020-08-10	99.2971	99.2971	3.3e-12
2020-08-11	99.6076	99.6076	3.2e-12
2020-08-12	99.9158	99.9158	3.1e-12
2020-08-13	100.2218	100.2218	3.0e-12
2020-08-14	100.5255	100.5255	2.9e-12
2020-08-15	100.8269	100.8269	2.8e-12
2020-08-16	101.1260	101.1260	2.7e-12
2020-08-17	101.4229	101.4229	2.6e-12
2020-08-18	101.7176	101.7176	2.5e-12
2020-08-19	102.0100	102.0100	2.4e-12
2020-08-20	102.3002	102.3002	2.3e-12
2020-08-21	102.5882	102.5882	2.2e-12
2020-08-22	102.8740	102.8740	2.1e-12
2020-08-23	103.1576	103.1576	2.1e-12
2020-08-24	103.4391	103.4391	2.0e-12
2020-08-25	103.7183	103.7183	1.9e-12
2020-08-26	103.9955	103.9955	1.8e-12
2020-08-27	104.2705	104.2705	1.7e-12
2020-08-28	104.5433	104.5433	1.6e-12
2020-08-29	104.8141	104.8141	1.6e-12
2020-08-30	105.0827	105.0827	1.5e-12
2020-08-31	105.3493	105.3493	1.4e-12
2020-09-01	105.6138	105.6138	1.3e-12
2020-09-02	105.8762	105.8762	1.3e-12
2020-09-03	106.1365	106.1365	1.2e-12
2020-09-04	106.3949	106.3949	1.1e-12
2020-09-05	106.6512	106.6512	1.1e-12
2020-09-06	106.9055	106.9055	1.0e-12
2020-09-07	107.1578	107.1578	9.4e-13
2020-09-08	107.4082	107.4082	9.0e-13
2020-09-09	107.6565	107.6565	8.1e-13
2020-09-10	107.9030	107.9030	7.8e-13
2020-09-11	108.1475	108.1475	7.2e-13
2020-09-12	108.3900	108.3900	6.0e-13
2020-09-13	108.6307	108.6307	5.5e-13
2020-09-14	108.8695	108.8695	5.3e-13
2020-09-15	109.1064	109.1064	5.0e-13
2020-09-16	109.3414	109.3414	4.3e-13
2020-09-17	109.5746	109.5746	3.6e-13
2020-09-18	109.8060	109.8060	3.1e-13
2020-09-19	110.0356	110.0356	2.7e-13
2020-09-20	110.2633	110.2633	2.3e-13
2020-09-21	110.4893	110.4893	1.7e-13
2020-09-22	110.7135	110.7135	1.1e-13
2020-09-23	110.9360	110.9360	8.5e-14
2020-09-24	111.1567	111.1567	4.3e-14
2020-09-25	111.3758	111.3758	1.4e-14
2020-09-26	111.5931	111.5931	5.7e-14
2020-09-27	111.8087	111.8087	8.5e-14
2020-09-28	112.0226	112.0226	1.3e-13
2020-09-29	112.2349	112.2349	1.8e-13
2020-09-30	112.4456	112.4456	2.0e-13
2020-10-01	112.6546	112.6546	2.6e-13
2020-10-02	112.8620	112.8620	3.0e-13
2020-10-03	113.0678	113.0678	3.3e-13
2020-10-04	113.2721	113.2721	3.7e-13
2020-10-05	113.4747	113.4747	4.0e-13
2020-10-06	113.6759	113.6759	4.4e-13

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Fit	2.82 ms	7.89 ms	2.8× faster
Predict	1.10 ms	3.05 ms	2.8× faster
Save model to JSON	19 µs	647 µs	34× faster
Load model from JSON	121 µs	2.55 ms	21× faster
Load and predict in a new process	157 ms	1.52 s	9.7× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-python-reconciliation-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "explicit",
      "timestamps": [
        "2020-02-08T00:00:00.000Z"
      ]
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}