---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/logistic/logistic-implicit-floor-auto-changepoints.md
---

# Weekly pattern, automatic changepoints

 [← All logistic growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/logistic)

The same history with two automatic changepoints instead of a hand-picked one.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v1/logistic-implicit-floor.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v1/logistic-implicit-floor.json): 96 history rows and 24 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **2.4e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-04-06 | 64.9080 | 64.9080 | 2.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-07 | 65.3515 | 65.3515 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-08 | 65.9703 | 65.9703 | 2.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-09 | 66.6561 | 66.6561 | 2.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-10 | 67.1311 | 67.1311 | 2.1e-11 |
| 2020-04-11 | 67.2247 | 67.2247 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-12 | 67.1798 | 67.1798 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-13 | 67.3238 | 67.3238 | 2.0e-11 |
| 2020-04-14 | 67.7093 | 67.7093 | 1.9e-11 |
| 2020-04-15 | 68.2719 | 68.2719 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-16 | 68.9030 | 68.9030 | 1.8e-11 |
| 2020-04-17 | 69.3249 | 69.3249 | 1.7e-11 |
| 2020-04-18 | 69.3671 | 69.3671 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-19 | 69.2723 | 69.2723 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-20 | 69.3679 | 69.3679 | 1.6e-11 |
| 2020-04-21 | 69.7068 | 69.7068 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-22 | 70.2240 | 70.2240 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2020-04-23 | 70.8115 | 70.8115 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-24 | 71.1911 | 71.1911 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2020-04-25 | 71.1924 | 71.1924 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-26 | 71.0583 | 71.0583 | 1.3e-11 |
| 2020-04-27 | 71.1159 | 71.1159 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-28 | 71.4181 | 71.4181 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-29 | 71.9000 | 71.9000 | 1.2e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Convert input rows | 15 µs | 503 µs | 33× faster |
| Fit | 19.3 ms | 29.5 ms | 1.5× faster |
| Predict | 315 µs | 3.32 ms | 11× faster |
| Fit and predict | 19.4 ms | 32.6 ms | 1.7× faster |
| Convert, fit and predict | 18.8 ms | 33.3 ms | 1.8× faster |
| First forecast in a new process | 196 ms | 1.47 s | 7.5× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 35 µs | 448 µs | 13× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 100 µs | 2.41 ms | 24× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 170 ms | 1.43 s | 8.4× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "logistic-map-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "minmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 2,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.2,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly-custom",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 2,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```