---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/logistic/country-explicit-us-logistic-additive.md
---

# Explicit US control, additive

 [← All logistic growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/logistic)

The same rows, occurrences, priors, mode and fitted names as the corresponding country case, but all dates are explicit events and no country snapshot is embedded.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v5/country-logistic-96.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v5/country-logistic-96.json): 96 history rows and 4 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **1.5e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2024-12-25 | 78.6444 | 78.6444 | 1.5e-11 |
| 2025-01-01 | 82.3589 | 82.3589 | 1.4e-11 |
| 2025-01-02 | 78.7702 | 78.7702 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2025-01-05 | 80.5727 | 80.5727 | 1.1e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Convert input rows | 14 µs | 497 µs | 35× faster |
| Fit | 32.5 ms | 52.6 ms | 1.6× faster |
| Predict | 154 µs | 5.06 ms | 33× faster |
| Fit and predict | 30.9 ms | 57.1 ms | 1.8× faster |
| Convert, fit and predict | 31.0 ms | 57.0 ms | 1.8× faster |
| First forecast in a new process | 207 ms | 1.51 s | 7.3× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 31 µs | 718 µs | 23× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 369 µs | 4.30 ms | 12× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 166 ms | 1.44 s | 8.7× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "logistic",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 2,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Martin Luther King Jr. Day",
        "date": "2024-01-15",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington's Birthday",
        "date": "2024-02-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Memorial Day",
        "date": "2024-05-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Juneteenth National Independence Day",
        "date": "2024-06-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
        "date": "2024-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Labor Day",
        "date": "2024-09-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Columbus Day",
        "date": "2024-10-14",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Veterans Day",
        "date": "2024-11-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Thanksgiving Day",
        "date": "2024-11-28",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2024-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Martin Luther King Jr. Day",
        "date": "2025-01-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington's Birthday",
        "date": "2025-02-17",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Memorial Day",
        "date": "2025-05-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Juneteenth National Independence Day",
        "date": "2025-06-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Labor Day",
        "date": "2025-09-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Columbus Day",
        "date": "2025-10-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Veterans Day",
        "date": "2025-11-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Thanksgiving Day",
        "date": "2025-11-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2025-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "effectOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "fallback": "newton",
    "lbfgs": {
      "historySize": 5,
      "initAlpha": 0.001,
      "tolObj": 1e-12,
      "tolRelObj": 10000,
      "tolGrad": 1e-8,
      "tolRelGrad": 10000000,
      "tolParam": 1e-8
    }
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```