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Defaults, three years of ranges ​

match flagged ← All linear growth benchmarks

80% ranges from 1,000 simulated paths, Python's default, on all 1,460 past and future dates of a three-year daily history.

Input ​

benchmark/inputs/v3/linear-long-history.json: 1095 history rows and 365 forecast rows.

Output ​

Largest difference: 0.047 (0.011% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

DateEffect ProphetPython ProphetDifference
2020-01-0112.172812.16770.0051
2020-01-0213.813813.81000.0038
2020-01-0314.563714.56110.0026
2020-01-0414.283614.28230.0013
2020-01-0513.597913.59786.0e-5
2020-01-0613.350413.35150.0012
2020-01-0714.086714.08910.0024
2020-01-0815.682915.68650.0036
2020-01-0917.318117.32290.0047
2020-01-1018.063018.06880.0058
2020-01-1117.778717.78570.0069
2020-01-1217.089917.09780.0079
2020-01-1316.840516.84940.0088
2020-01-1417.576517.58620.0097
2020-01-1519.173919.18440.010
2020-01-1620.812020.82310.011
2020-01-1721.561421.57320.012
2020-01-1821.283521.29590.012
2020-01-1920.602720.61560.013
2020-01-2020.363220.37640.013
2020-01-2121.110621.12400.013
2020-01-2222.720922.73450.014
2020-01-2324.373224.38690.014
2020-01-2425.137825.15150.014
2020-01-2524.876124.88980.014
2020-01-2624.212024.22550.014
2020-01-2723.989424.00270.013
2020-01-2824.753724.76660.013
2020-01-2926.380426.39300.013
2020-01-3028.048428.06060.012
2020-01-3128.827728.83950.012
2020-02-0128.579128.59040.011
2020-02-0227.926627.93730.011
2020-02-0327.713427.72360.010
2020-02-0428.484828.49430.0095
2020-02-0530.116130.12500.0089
2020-02-0631.786431.79420.0078
2020-02-0732.565232.57190.0067
2020-02-0832.313032.31880.0057
2020-02-0931.653931.65850.0046
2020-02-1031.431131.43460.0035
2020-02-1132.189932.19230.0025
2020-02-1233.805733.80720.0015
2020-02-1335.457435.45780.00042
2020-02-1436.215036.21440.00058
2020-02-1535.939435.93790.0015
2020-02-1635.254835.25240.0024
2020-02-1735.004835.00150.0033
2020-02-1835.735035.73080.0042
2020-02-1937.321337.31630.0050
2020-02-2038.942738.93690.0058
2020-02-2139.669739.66310.0066
2020-02-2239.363639.35640.0072
2020-02-2338.648838.64090.0079
2020-02-2438.369438.36080.0085
2020-02-2539.071139.06200.0091
2020-02-2640.630240.62060.0096
2020-02-2742.225942.21580.010
2020-02-2842.928942.91830.011
2020-02-2942.600742.58980.011
2020-03-0141.865741.85440.011
2020-03-0241.568141.55650.012
2020-03-0342.253742.24170.012
2020-03-0443.798743.78640.012
2020-03-0545.382245.36960.013
2020-03-0646.074846.06190.013
2020-03-0745.737745.72470.013
2020-03-0844.995444.98220.013
2020-03-0944.691844.67840.013
2020-03-1045.372345.35870.014
2020-03-1146.913046.89920.014
2020-03-1248.506248.49270.013
2020-03-1349.208749.19550.013
2020-03-1448.881748.86890.013
2020-03-1548.149248.13670.013
2020-03-1647.854947.84270.012
2020-03-1748.544348.53230.012
2020-03-1850.092950.08130.012
2020-03-1951.679751.66830.011
2020-03-2052.374852.36360.011
2020-03-2152.039252.02830.011
2020-03-2251.296951.28630.011
2020-03-2350.991750.98130.010
2020-03-2451.669051.65870.010
2020-03-2553.204453.19430.010
2020-03-2654.776954.76710.0099
2020-03-2755.456855.44710.0097
2020-03-2855.105355.09580.0095
2020-03-2954.346454.33700.0094
2020-03-3054.024054.01480.0092
2020-03-3154.683854.67470.0091
2020-04-0156.201556.19260.0090
2020-04-0257.756457.74760.0088
2020-04-0358.418858.41010.0087
2020-04-0458.050058.04150.0085
2020-04-0557.274457.26600.0084
2020-04-0656.935856.92750.0083
2020-04-0757.580057.57180.0081
2020-04-0859.082959.07490.0080
2020-04-0960.623760.61590.0078
2020-04-1061.272861.26510.0077
2020-04-1160.891560.88410.0074
2020-04-1260.104160.09690.0072
2020-04-1359.754559.74750.0071
2020-04-1460.388460.38150.0069
2020-04-1561.881661.87490.0066
2020-04-1663.413163.40670.0064
2020-04-1764.053464.04720.0062
2020-04-1863.663663.65760.0059
2020-04-1962.867862.86210.0057
2020-04-2062.509962.50440.0055
2020-04-2163.135463.13000.0053
2020-04-2264.620064.61490.0051
2020-04-2366.142766.13790.0049
2020-04-2466.773866.76920.0047
2020-04-2566.374466.37000.0044
2020-04-2665.568665.56440.0042
2020-04-2765.200265.19620.0040
2020-04-2865.814665.81080.0038
2020-04-2967.287767.28410.0036
2020-04-3068.798468.79500.0034
2020-05-0169.417169.41380.0033
2020-05-0269.004869.00180.0030
2020-05-0368.185968.18300.0029
2020-05-0467.804167.80130.0027
2020-05-0568.405068.40240.0026
2020-05-0669.864469.86200.0024
2020-05-0771.361671.35930.0023
2020-05-0871.966971.96470.0021
2020-05-0971.541571.53950.0019
2020-05-1070.709670.70790.0018
2020-05-1170.315470.31380.0016
2020-05-1270.904370.90280.0015
2020-05-1372.352372.35110.0013
2020-05-1473.838773.83750.0011
2020-05-1574.433774.43270.00095
2020-05-1673.998673.99790.00069
2020-05-1773.157773.15720.00051
2020-05-1872.755072.75470.00032
2020-05-1973.336173.33600.00012
2020-05-2074.776874.77690.00012
2020-05-2176.256276.25650.00033
2020-05-2276.844776.84530.00055
2020-05-2376.403576.40430.00085
2020-05-2475.556875.55780.0011
2020-05-2575.148475.14960.0013
2020-05-2675.723875.72530.0015
2020-05-2777.158977.16070.0018
2020-05-2878.632778.63470.0020
2020-05-2979.215579.21770.0022
2020-05-3078.768478.77090.0024
2020-05-3177.915777.91830.0026
2020-06-0177.501077.50380.0028
2020-06-0278.069978.07290.0030
2020-06-0379.498379.50150.0032
2020-06-0480.965280.96850.0033
2020-06-0581.540881.54420.0034
2020-06-0681.086481.09000.0036
2020-06-0780.226280.22990.0037
2020-06-0879.804079.80780.0038
2020-06-0980.365480.36930.0039
2020-06-1081.786381.79030.0040
2020-06-1183.245983.24990.0040
2020-06-1283.814483.81850.0040
2020-06-1383.353283.35730.0042
2020-06-1482.486582.49060.0042
2020-06-1582.058282.06240.0042
2020-06-1682.614082.61820.0042
2020-06-1784.029984.03410.0042
2020-06-1885.484885.48900.0042
2020-06-1986.049486.05350.0042
2020-06-2085.584785.58890.0043
2020-06-2184.715184.71940.0042
2020-06-2284.284684.28880.0042
2020-06-2384.838684.84280.0042
2020-06-2486.253286.25740.0042
2020-06-2587.707487.71160.0042
2020-06-2688.271588.27570.0042
2020-06-2787.806887.81110.0043
2020-06-2886.937686.94180.0043
2020-06-2986.507586.51180.0043
2020-06-3087.062387.06650.0043
2020-07-0188.477688.48200.0043
2020-07-0289.932789.93700.0043
2020-07-0390.497790.50200.0043
2020-07-0490.033990.03830.0044
2020-07-0589.165389.16970.0044
2020-07-0688.736088.74040.0044
2020-07-0789.291289.29560.0044
2020-07-0890.707090.71150.0045
2020-07-0992.162492.16680.0045
2020-07-1092.727692.73200.0045
2020-07-1192.263892.26840.0046
2020-07-1291.395491.39990.0045
2020-07-1390.966190.97060.0045
2020-07-1491.521491.52600.0045
2020-07-1592.937592.94200.0046
2020-07-1694.393294.39780.0046
2020-07-1794.959094.96360.0046
2020-07-1894.496294.50080.0046
2020-07-1993.628993.63360.0046
2020-07-2093.201293.20590.0046
2020-07-2193.758793.76330.0046
2020-07-2295.177295.18180.0047
2020-07-2396.635996.64060.0047
2020-07-2497.205297.20990.0047
2020-07-2596.746496.75110.0048
2020-07-2695.883695.88840.0048
2020-07-2795.461095.46580.0048
2020-07-2896.023996.02880.0048
2020-07-2997.448497.45330.0049
2020-07-3098.913598.91840.0049
2020-07-3199.489699.49460.0050
2020-08-0199.037899.04290.0051
2020-08-0298.182598.18760.0051
2020-08-0397.767397.77250.0051
2020-08-0498.338098.34320.0052
2020-08-0599.770299.77550.0053
2020-08-06101.2432101.24850.0053
2020-08-07101.8271101.83240.0053
2020-08-08101.3831101.38850.0055
2020-08-09100.5354100.54090.0055
2020-08-10100.1279100.13340.0055
2020-08-11100.7060100.71150.0055
2020-08-12102.1456102.15110.0056
2020-08-13103.6257103.63130.0056
2020-08-14104.2166104.22230.0056
2020-08-15103.7796103.78530.0057
2020-08-16102.9388102.94460.0057
2020-08-17102.5382102.54390.0057
2020-08-18103.1232103.12890.0057
2020-08-19104.5697104.57550.0058
2020-08-20106.0569106.06260.0058
2020-08-21106.6551106.66080.0058
2020-08-22106.2255106.23130.0058
2020-08-23105.3924105.39820.0058
2020-08-24104.9997105.00560.0058
2020-08-25105.5931105.59890.0059
2020-08-26107.0483107.05420.0059
2020-08-27108.5446108.55060.0059
2020-08-28109.1524109.15830.0060
2020-08-29108.7327108.73880.0061
2020-08-30107.9101107.91620.0061
2020-08-31107.5282107.53440.0062
2020-09-01108.1327108.13900.0063
2020-09-02109.5995109.60590.0064
2020-09-03111.1081111.11420.0061
2020-09-04111.7283111.73410.0058
2020-09-05111.3214111.32710.0057
2020-09-06110.5116110.51700.0054
2020-09-07110.1428110.14790.0052
2020-09-08110.7604110.76530.0049
2020-09-09112.2402112.24500.0048
2020-09-10113.7614113.76590.0045
2020-09-11114.3942114.39850.0043
2020-09-12113.9997114.00390.0042
2020-09-13113.2021113.20610.0040
2020-09-14112.8453112.84910.0038
2020-09-15113.4746113.47820.0036
2020-09-16114.9661114.96950.0034
2020-09-17116.4986116.50180.0032
2020-09-18117.1425117.14550.0030
2020-09-19116.7589116.76180.0029
2020-09-20115.9721115.97480.0027
2020-09-21115.6258115.62830.0025
2020-09-22116.2657116.26800.0023
2020-09-23117.7677117.76970.0021
2020-09-24119.3107119.31250.0018
2020-09-25119.9651119.96670.0016
2020-09-26119.5922119.59370.0015
2020-09-27118.8162118.81740.0012
2020-09-28118.4810118.48200.00095
2020-09-29119.1322119.13290.00070
2020-09-30120.6456120.64610.00048
2020-10-01122.2005122.20070.00021
2020-10-02122.8671122.86706.1e-5
2020-10-03122.5066122.50630.00025
2020-10-04121.7433121.74280.00053
2020-10-05121.4212121.42040.00082
2020-10-06122.0857122.08460.0011
2020-10-07123.6127123.61130.0014
2020-10-08125.1819125.18080.0012
2020-10-09125.8631125.86210.00096
2020-10-10125.5172125.51660.00068
2020-10-11124.7687124.76820.00050
2020-10-12124.4612124.46090.00032
2020-10-13125.1402125.14010.00015
2020-10-14126.6817126.68175.3e-5
2020-10-15128.2645128.26470.00021
2020-10-16128.9589128.95930.00035
2020-10-17128.6261128.62670.00058
2020-10-18127.8903127.89100.00071
2020-10-19127.5951127.59600.00082
2020-10-20128.2862128.28710.00093
2020-10-21129.8392129.84030.0011
2020-10-22131.4333131.43450.0012
2020-10-23132.1386132.13990.0012
2020-10-24131.8164131.81780.0014
2020-10-25131.0908131.09230.0015
2020-10-26130.8057130.80720.0015
2020-10-27131.5065131.50810.0016
2020-10-28133.0692133.07090.0017
2020-10-29134.6728134.67460.0018
2020-10-30135.3876135.38950.0018
2020-10-31135.0749135.07690.0020
2020-11-01134.3588134.36090.0021
2020-11-02134.0834134.08550.0021
2020-11-03134.7940134.79620.0022
2020-11-04136.3667136.36910.0024
2020-11-05137.9805137.98300.0025
2020-11-06138.7057138.70830.0026
2020-11-07138.4037138.40650.0028
2020-11-08137.6985137.70140.0030
2020-11-09137.4340137.43720.0032
2020-11-10138.1559138.15930.0033
2020-11-11139.7399139.74350.0036
2020-11-12141.3658141.36910.0033
2020-11-13142.1030142.10610.0031
2020-11-14141.8130141.81590.0029
2020-11-15141.1197141.12240.0027
2020-11-16140.8670140.86950.0025
2020-11-17141.6003141.60270.0023
2020-11-18143.1956143.19770.0022
2020-11-19144.8316144.83360.0020
2020-11-20145.5788145.58050.0018
2020-11-21145.2980145.29970.0017
2020-11-22144.6136144.61510.0015
2020-11-23144.3693144.37060.0013
2020-11-24145.1105145.11160.0011
2020-11-25146.7131146.71400.00095
2020-11-26148.3560148.35670.00073
2020-11-27149.1094149.11000.00051
2020-11-28148.8346148.83500.00036
2020-11-29148.1558148.15590.00011
2020-11-30147.9166147.91650.00015
2020-12-01148.6628148.66230.00042
2020-12-02150.2700150.26940.00066
2020-12-03151.9175151.91660.00095
2020-12-04152.6755152.67430.0012
2020-12-05152.4052152.40380.0014
2020-12-06151.7310151.72930.0017
2020-12-07151.4966151.49460.0020
2020-12-08152.2477152.24540.0023
2020-12-09153.8601153.85760.0025
2020-12-10155.5129155.51020.0027
2020-12-11156.2765156.27360.0029
2020-12-12156.0120156.00910.0029
2020-12-13155.3438155.34070.0031
2020-12-14155.1155155.11240.0031
2020-12-15155.8728155.86960.0032
2020-12-16157.4914157.48830.0031
2020-12-17159.1520159.14730.0047
2020-12-18159.9232159.91700.0062
2020-12-19159.6660159.65850.0075
2020-12-20159.0047158.99580.0089
2020-12-21158.7829158.77270.010
2020-12-22159.5459159.53450.011
2020-12-23161.1696161.15710.013
2020-12-24162.8329162.81930.014
2020-12-25163.6059163.59120.015
2020-12-26163.3495163.33400.016
2020-12-27162.6881162.67160.016
2020-12-28162.4651162.44780.017
2020-12-29163.2261163.20800.018
2020-12-30164.8468164.82790.019
2020-12-31166.5061166.48650.020
2021-01-01167.2744167.25410.020
2021-01-02167.0127166.99180.021
2021-01-03166.3453166.32370.022
2021-01-04166.1160166.09380.022
2021-01-05166.8705166.84750.023
2021-01-06168.4846168.46100.024
2021-01-07170.1377170.11330.024
2021-01-08170.9000170.87490.025
2021-01-09170.6331170.60730.026
2021-01-10169.9613169.93460.027
2021-01-11169.7286169.70100.028
2021-01-12170.4809170.45240.029
2021-01-13172.0943172.06480.030
2021-01-14173.7482173.71740.031
2021-01-15174.5130174.48100.032
2021-01-16174.2502174.21700.033
2021-01-17173.5842173.54970.034
2021-01-18173.3593173.32330.036
2021-01-19174.1210174.08350.038
2021-01-20175.7454175.70630.039
2021-01-21177.3596177.32290.037
2021-01-22178.0861178.05180.034
2021-01-23177.7861177.75420.032
2021-01-24177.0840177.05430.030
2021-01-25176.8234176.79580.028
2021-01-26177.5498177.52430.025
2021-01-27179.1390179.11550.023
2021-01-28180.7697180.74820.022
2021-01-29181.5122181.49250.020
2021-01-30181.2271181.20940.018
2021-01-31180.5385180.52260.016
2021-02-01180.2899180.27570.014
2021-02-02181.0263181.01370.013
2021-02-03182.6232182.61230.011
2021-02-04184.2592184.25000.0092
2021-02-05185.0042184.99660.0076
2021-02-06184.7189184.71300.0059
2021-02-07184.0271184.02280.0043
2021-02-08183.7722183.76950.0027
2021-02-09184.4993184.49830.0011
2021-02-10186.0839186.08450.00061
2021-02-11187.7048187.70700.0022
2021-02-12188.4318188.43570.0039
2021-02-13188.1260188.13160.0057
2021-02-14187.4112187.41860.0074
2021-02-15187.1314187.14050.0091
2021-02-16187.8317187.84260.011
2021-02-17189.3881189.40080.013
2021-02-18190.9795190.99410.015
2021-02-19191.6764191.69290.016
2021-02-20191.3400191.35850.019
2021-02-21190.5947190.61520.020
2021-02-22190.2845190.30700.022
2021-02-23190.9552190.97970.025
2021-02-24192.4828192.50950.027
2021-02-25193.8748193.90090.026
2021-02-26194.3736194.39930.026
2021-02-27193.8408193.86610.025
2021-02-28192.9010192.92580.025
2021-03-01192.3981192.42250.024
2021-03-02192.8781192.90220.024
2021-03-03194.2172194.24090.024
2021-03-04195.5945195.61790.023
2021-03-05196.0806196.10380.023
2021-03-06195.5370195.55990.023
2021-03-07194.5879194.61060.023
2021-03-08194.0774194.09990.023
2021-03-09194.5510194.57330.022
2021-03-10195.8848195.90690.022
2021-03-11197.2576197.27960.022
2021-03-12197.7399197.76170.022
2021-03-13197.1928197.21440.022
2021-03-14196.2403196.26170.021
2021-03-15195.7262195.74750.021
2021-03-16196.1960196.21700.021
2021-03-17197.5252197.54600.021
2021-03-18198.8928198.91340.021
2021-03-19199.3690199.38930.020
2021-03-20198.8146198.83480.020
2021-03-21197.8539197.87380.020
2021-03-22197.3303197.35000.020
2021-03-23197.7894197.80880.019
2021-03-24199.1068199.12590.019
2021-03-25200.4615200.48030.019
2021-03-26200.9237200.94210.018
2021-03-27200.3544200.37250.018
2021-03-28199.3778199.39560.018
2021-03-29198.8378198.85520.017
2021-03-30199.2799199.29690.017
2021-03-31200.5799200.59660.017
2021-04-01201.9169201.93330.016
2021-04-02202.3614202.37730.016
2021-04-03201.7746201.79020.016
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2023-12-30611.2687611.31560.047

Internal fit differences ​

The forecasts match, so this case passes. Both libraries search for the best-fitting parameters and stop when they are close enough. On this input they stopped at slightly different points, so these internal numbers differ by more than the threshold where we take a closer look.

CheckEffect ProphetPython ProphetThreshold
Fitting objective (lower is a better fit)-5819.5082-5819.64720.01
Stationarity residual (lower is closer to the best fit)389.2734220.71230.01

Timing ​

Median of all measured repetitions.

StepEffect ProphetPython ProphetEffect Prophet is
Convert input rows54 µs1.43 ms26× faster
Save model to JSON28 µs1.50 ms54× faster
Load model from JSON233 µs4.30 ms18× faster
Simulate uncertainty71.3 ms379 ms5.3× faster
First simulation in a new process368 ms2.29 s6.2× faster
Load and simulate in a new process265 ms2.08 s7.8× faster

Settings ​

The case declaration both libraries ran.

json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "linear-output-first-v4"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "linear",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "yearly",
        "periodDays": 365.25,
        "fourierOrder": 10,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "seed": 19,
    "samples": 1000,
    "intervalWidth": 0.8,
    "output": "intervals",
    "algorithm": "scalar-continuous-time",
    "evidence": "docs/validation/uncertainty.md#evidence-classes",
    "samplerMemoryLimitBytes": 67108864
  }
}

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