Defaults, ranges on irregular dates

match flagged ← All linear growth benchmarks

80% ranges from 1,000 simulated paths on the unevenly spaced history and its 48 forecast dates.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v1/map-irregular-medium.json: 192 history rows and 48 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.11 (0.15% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2020-01-01	12.3830	12.3354	0.048
2020-01-02	12.8795	12.8371	0.042
2020-01-03	13.0457	13.0062	0.039
2020-01-04	13.5031	13.4685	0.035
2020-01-05	13.8371	13.8082	0.029
2020-01-06	14.1381	14.1030	0.035
2020-01-07	14.3399	14.3049	0.035
2020-01-09	15.3273	15.2970	0.030
2020-01-10	15.4934	15.4661	0.027
2020-01-11	15.9509	15.9284	0.023
2020-01-12	16.2848	16.2681	0.017
2020-01-13	16.5859	16.5629	0.023
2020-01-14	16.7876	16.7648	0.023
2020-01-15	17.2785	17.2552	0.023
2020-01-17	17.9411	17.9260	0.015
2020-01-18	18.3986	18.3883	0.010
2020-01-19	18.7326	18.7280	0.0046
2020-01-20	19.0336	19.0228	0.011
2020-01-21	19.2354	19.2247	0.011
2020-01-23	20.2228	20.2167	0.0061
2020-01-24	20.3889	20.3858	0.0031
2020-01-26	21.1803	21.1879	0.0075
2020-01-27	21.4814	21.4827	0.0013
2020-01-28	21.6831	21.6846	0.0015
2020-01-29	22.1740	22.1749	0.00098
2020-01-30	22.6705	22.6766	0.0061
2020-01-31	22.8366	22.8457	0.0091
2020-02-01	23.2941	23.3080	0.014
2020-02-03	23.9291	23.9426	0.013
2020-02-04	24.1309	24.1444	0.014
2020-02-05	24.6217	24.6348	0.013
2020-02-06	25.1183	25.1365	0.018
2020-02-07	25.2844	25.3056	0.021
2020-02-08	25.7419	25.7679	0.026
2020-02-09	26.0758	26.1076	0.032
2020-02-11	26.5786	26.6043	0.026
2020-02-12	27.0695	27.0947	0.025
2020-02-13	27.5660	27.5964	0.030
2020-02-15	28.1896	28.2278	0.038
2020-02-16	28.5236	28.5675	0.044
2020-02-17	28.8246	28.8623	0.038
2020-02-18	29.0264	29.0642	0.038
2020-02-20	30.0138	30.0562	0.042
2020-02-21	30.1799	30.2253	0.045
2020-02-22	30.6374	30.6877	0.050
2020-02-23	30.9713	31.0274	0.056
2020-02-24	31.2724	31.3222	0.050
2020-02-25	31.4741	31.5241	0.050
2020-02-26	31.9649	32.0144	0.049
2020-02-28	32.6276	32.6852	0.058
2020-02-29	33.0851	33.1475	0.062
2020-03-01	33.4191	33.4872	0.068
2020-03-02	33.7201	33.7821	0.062
2020-03-03	33.9218	33.9839	0.062
2020-03-04	34.4127	34.4743	0.062
2020-03-05	34.9093	34.9760	0.067
2020-03-07	35.5329	35.6074	0.075
2020-03-09	36.1679	36.2419	0.074
2020-03-10	36.3696	36.4438	0.074
2020-03-11	36.8604	36.9342	0.074
2020-03-12	37.3570	37.4359	0.079
2020-03-13	37.5231	37.6050	0.082
2020-03-14	37.9806	38.0555	0.075
2020-03-16	38.6155	38.6664	0.051
2020-03-17	38.8171	38.8565	0.039
2020-03-18	39.3079	39.3351	0.027
2020-03-19	39.8045	39.8249	0.020
2020-03-20	39.9705	39.9822	0.012
2020-03-21	40.3727	40.3778	0.0051
2020-03-22	40.6513	40.6507	0.00059
2020-03-24	41.0434	41.0138	0.030
2020-03-25	41.4789	41.4374	0.041
2020-03-26	41.9201	41.8723	0.048
2020-03-27	42.0309	41.9747	0.056
2020-03-28	42.3471	42.2935	0.054
2020-03-29	42.5398	42.4898	0.050
2020-03-31	42.7600	42.6997	0.060
2020-04-02	43.4649	43.4048	0.060
2020-04-03	43.4897	43.4305	0.059
2020-04-04	43.8060	43.7494	0.057
2020-04-05	43.9568	43.9047	0.052
2020-04-06	44.0748	44.0151	0.060
2020-04-07	44.0934	44.0326	0.061
2020-04-08	44.4012	44.3386	0.063
2020-04-10	44.6977	44.6405	0.057
2020-04-11	44.9721	44.9184	0.054
2020-04-12	45.1230	45.0736	0.049
2020-04-13	45.2409	45.1840	0.057
2020-04-14	45.2596	45.2014	0.058
2020-04-15	45.5673	45.5072	0.060
2020-04-16	45.8808	45.8244	0.056
2020-04-18	46.1383	46.0868	0.051
2020-04-19	46.2891	46.2420	0.047
2020-04-20	46.4071	46.3523	0.055
2020-04-21	46.4257	46.3697	0.056
2020-04-23	47.0470	46.9927	0.054
2020-04-24	47.0300	46.9773	0.053
2020-04-25	47.3044	47.2551	0.049
2020-04-27	47.5732	47.5205	0.053
2020-04-28	47.5919	47.5379	0.054
2020-04-29	47.8996	47.8438	0.056
2020-04-30	48.2131	48.1609	0.052
2020-05-01	48.1962	48.1455	0.051
2020-05-02	48.4706	48.4233	0.047
2020-05-03	48.6214	48.5785	0.043
2020-05-05	48.7580	48.7061	0.052
2020-05-06	49.0658	49.0120	0.054
2020-05-07	49.3793	49.3291	0.050
2020-05-08	49.3623	49.3137	0.049
2020-05-09	49.6367	49.5915	0.045
2020-05-10	49.7876	49.7467	0.041
2020-05-11	49.9056	49.8570	0.049
2020-05-13	50.2320	50.1802	0.052
2020-05-14	50.5455	50.4974	0.048
2020-05-16	50.8029	50.7597	0.043
2020-05-17	50.9538	50.9149	0.039
2020-05-18	51.0718	51.0252	0.047
2020-05-19	51.0904	51.0426	0.048
2020-05-20	51.3982	51.3484	0.050
2020-05-22	51.6948	51.6502	0.045
2020-05-23	51.9692	51.9280	0.041
2020-05-24	52.1201	52.0831	0.037
2020-05-25	52.2381	52.1934	0.045
2020-05-26	52.2628	52.2284	0.034
2020-05-27	52.5766	52.5518	0.025
2020-05-28	52.8961	52.8865	0.0096
2020-05-30	53.1656	53.1840	0.018
2020-05-31	53.3225	53.3567	0.034
2020-06-01	53.4465	53.4846	0.038
2020-06-02	53.5413	53.5866	0.045
2020-06-03	53.9251	53.9770	0.052
2020-06-04	54.3147	54.3787	0.064
2020-06-05	54.3738	54.4479	0.074
2020-06-08	55.1452	55.2450	0.10
2020-06-09	55.2399	55.3469	0.11
2020-06-10	55.7340	55.8340	0.10
2020-06-11	56.2338	56.3325	0.099
2020-06-12	56.4031	56.4984	0.095
2020-06-13	56.8639	56.9574	0.094
2020-06-14	57.2010	57.2939	0.093
2020-06-16	57.7103	57.7841	0.074
2020-06-17	58.2710	58.3341	0.063
2020-06-18	58.8374	58.8953	0.058
2020-06-19	59.0734	59.1240	0.051
2020-06-20	59.6007	59.6458	0.045
2020-06-21	60.0045	60.0451	0.041
2020-06-22	60.3754	60.3995	0.024
2020-06-24	61.2282	61.2467	0.018
2020-06-25	61.8049	61.8258	0.021
2020-06-26	62.0511	62.0723	0.021
2020-06-27	62.5887	62.6121	0.023
2020-06-28	63.0028	63.0293	0.027
2020-06-30	63.6657	63.6809	0.015
2020-07-01	64.2367	64.2487	0.012
2020-07-03	65.0596	65.0744	0.015
2020-07-04	65.5972	65.6141	0.017
2020-07-05	66.0112	66.0313	0.020
2020-07-06	66.3924	66.4036	0.011
2020-07-07	66.6742	66.6829	0.0087
2020-07-08	67.2451	67.2507	0.0056
2020-07-09	67.8218	67.8298	0.0080
2020-07-11	68.6056	68.6162	0.011
2020-07-12	69.0197	69.0333	0.014
2020-07-13	69.4008	69.4056	0.0048
2020-07-14	69.6827	69.6849	0.0023
2020-07-15	70.2536	70.2527	0.00086
2020-07-16	70.8303	70.8319	0.0016
2020-07-17	71.0765	71.0784	0.0019
2020-07-19	72.0281	72.0354	0.0072
2020-07-20	72.4093	72.4076	0.0017
2020-07-21	72.6911	72.6870	0.0042
2020-07-23	73.8387	73.8339	0.0049
2020-07-24	74.0850	74.0805	0.0045
2020-07-25	74.6226	74.6202	0.0023
2020-07-26	75.0366	75.0374	0.00079
2020-07-28	75.6996	75.6890	0.011
2020-07-29	76.2705	76.2568	0.014
2020-07-30	76.8472	76.8359	0.011
2020-07-31	77.0934	77.0825	0.011
2020-08-01	77.6310	77.6222	0.0088
2020-08-02	78.0451	78.0394	0.0056
2020-08-03	78.4262	78.4117	0.015
2020-08-05	79.2790	79.2588	0.020
2020-08-06	79.8557	79.8380	0.018
2020-08-07	80.1019	80.0845	0.017
2020-08-08	80.6395	80.6243	0.015
2020-08-09	81.0535	81.0414	0.012
2020-08-10	81.4347	81.4137	0.021
2020-08-11	81.7165	81.6930	0.023
2020-08-13	82.8641	82.8400	0.024
2020-08-15	83.6479	83.6263	0.022
2020-08-16	84.0620	84.0435	0.018
2020-08-17	84.4431	84.4157	0.027
2020-08-18	84.7250	84.6951	0.030
2020-08-19	85.2959	85.2629	0.033
2020-08-20	85.8726	85.8420	0.031
2020-08-22	86.6564	86.6283	0.028
2020-08-23	87.0704	87.0455	0.025
2020-08-24	87.4516	87.4178	0.034
2020-08-25	87.7334	87.6971	0.036
2020-08-26	88.3044	88.2649	0.039
2020-08-27	88.8810	88.8440	0.037
2020-08-28	89.1273	89.0906	0.037
2020-08-30	90.0789	90.0475	0.031
2020-08-31	90.4600	90.4198	0.040
2020-09-01	90.7419	90.6991	0.043
2020-09-02	91.3128	91.2670	0.046
2020-09-03	91.8895	91.8461	0.043
2020-09-04	92.1357	92.0926	0.043
2020-09-06	93.0873	93.0496	0.038
2020-09-08	93.7503	93.7012	0.049
2020-09-09	94.3213	94.2690	0.052
2020-09-10	94.8980	94.8481	0.050
2020-09-11	95.1442	95.0947	0.049
2020-09-12	95.6818	95.6344	0.047
2020-09-13	96.0958	96.0516	0.044
2020-09-14	96.4770	96.4239	0.053
2020-09-16	97.3297	97.2710	0.059
2020-09-17	97.9064	97.8501	0.056
2020-09-18	98.1526	98.0967	0.056
2020-09-19	98.6902	98.6365	0.054
2020-09-20	99.1043	99.0536	0.051
2020-09-21	99.4854	99.4259	0.060
2020-09-22	99.7673	99.7052	0.062
2020-09-24	100.9149	100.8522	0.063
2020-09-25	101.1611	101.0987	0.062
2020-09-26	101.6987	101.6385	0.060
2020-09-27	102.1127	102.0557	0.057
2020-09-29	102.7757	102.7073	0.068
2020-09-30	103.3467	103.2751	0.072
2020-10-01	103.9233	103.8542	0.069
2020-10-03	104.7071	104.6405	0.067
2020-10-04	105.1212	105.0577	0.063
2020-10-05	105.5023	105.4300	0.072
2020-10-06	105.7842	105.7093	0.075
2020-10-07	106.3551	106.2771	0.078
2020-10-08	106.9318	106.8562	0.076
2020-10-09	107.1780	107.1028	0.075
2020-10-11	108.1296	108.0597	0.070
2020-10-12	108.5108	108.4320	0.079

Internal fit differences

The forecasts match, so this case passes. Both libraries search for the best-fitting parameters and stop when they are close enough. On this input they stopped at slightly different points, so these internal numbers differ by more than the threshold where we take a closer look.

Check	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Threshold
Fitting objective (lower is a better fit)	-745.4706	-744.8759	0.01

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Convert input rows	49 µs	609 µs	12× faster
Save model to JSON	19 µs	527 µs	27× faster
Load model from JSON	189 µs	2.31 ms	12× faster
Simulate uncertainty	11.9 ms	158 ms	13× faster
First simulation in a new process	197 ms	1.73 s	8.7× faster
Load and simulate in a new process	175 ms	1.68 s	9.6× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "linear-output-first-v4"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "linear",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "seed": 19,
    "samples": 1000,
    "intervalWidth": 0.8,
    "output": "intervals",
    "algorithm": "scalar-continuous-time",
    "evidence": "docs/validation/uncertainty.md#evidence-classes",
    "samplerMemoryLimitBytes": 67108864
  }
}