---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/linear/linear-defaults-small.md
---

# Defaults, one month of daily data

 [← All linear growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/linear)

32 days of history. Weekly seasonality switches on automatically.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v1/linear-small.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v1/linear-small.json): 32 history rows and 16 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **4.4e-8** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-02-02 | 23.6093 | 23.6093 | 3.2e-8 |
| 2020-02-03 | 23.4525 | 23.4525 | 4.4e-9 |
| 2020-02-04 | 24.1603 | 24.1603 | 3.6e-8 |
| 2020-02-05 | 25.7297 | 25.7297 | 2.0e-8 |
| 2020-02-06 | 27.4499 | 27.4499 | 8.4e-9 |
| 2020-02-07 | 28.2413 | 28.2413 | 1.5e-8 |
| 2020-02-08 | 27.9103 | 27.9103 | 6.2e-9 |
| 2020-02-09 | 27.2797 | 27.2797 | 2.3e-8 |
| 2020-02-10 | 27.1229 | 27.1229 | 1.3e-8 |
| 2020-02-11 | 27.8307 | 27.8307 | 4.4e-8 |
| 2020-02-12 | 29.4001 | 29.4001 | 2.8e-8 |
| 2020-02-13 | 31.1203 | 31.1203 | 1.7e-8 |
| 2020-02-14 | 31.9116 | 31.9116 | 2.4e-8 |
| 2020-02-15 | 31.5806 | 31.5806 | 2.3e-9 |
| 2020-02-16 | 30.9501 | 30.9501 | 1.5e-8 |
| 2020-02-17 | 30.7933 | 30.7933 | 2.1e-8 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Convert input rows | 5 µs | 437 µs | 96× faster |
| Fit | 18.2 ms | 61.2 ms | 3.4× faster |
| Predict | 204 µs | 3.15 ms | 15× faster |
| Fit and predict | 18.4 ms | 64.1 ms | 3.5× faster |
| Convert, fit and predict | 18.1 ms | 64.9 ms | 3.6× faster |
| First forecast in a new process | 191 ms | 1.50 s | 7.8× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 28 µs | 390 µs | 14× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 140 µs | 2.06 ms | 15× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 164 ms | 1.44 s | 8.8× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "linear-output-first-v4"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "linear",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true
  }
}
```