---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/linear/anomalies-linear-defaults-99.md
---

# Anomalies in a history

  [← All linear growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/linear)

`anomalies(history, { seed })` against fitting in Python, predicting the same history and comparing each value with its 99% range. 365 daily rows of a bending trend with four added outliers, which both libraries must flag.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v7/linear-anomalies.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v7/linear-anomalies.json): 365 history rows and 0 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **0.15** (0.11% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-01-01 | 12.0042 | 11.9825 | 0.022 |
| 2020-01-02 | 13.5386 | 13.5183 | 0.020 |
| 2020-01-03 | 14.3027 | 14.2843 | 0.018 |
| 2020-01-04 | 13.9155 | 13.8988 | 0.017 |
| 2020-01-05 | 13.0784 | 13.0634 | 0.015 |
| 2020-01-06 | 12.8188 | 12.8047 | 0.014 |
| 2020-01-07 | 13.5418 | 13.5287 | 0.013 |
| 2020-01-08 | 14.9849 | 14.9738 | 0.011 |
| 2020-01-09 | 16.5193 | 16.5096 | 0.0097 |
| 2020-01-10 | 17.2833 | 17.2756 | 0.0078 |
| 2020-01-11 | 16.8962 | 16.8900 | 0.0061 |
| 2020-01-12 | 16.0591 | 16.0547 | 0.0044 |
| 2020-01-13 | 15.7995 | 15.7960 | 0.0035 |
| 2020-01-14 | 16.5224 | 16.5199 | 0.0025 |
| 2020-01-15 | 17.9655 | 17.9651 | 0.00045 |
| 2020-01-16 | 19.4999 | 19.5009 | 0.00096 |
| 2020-01-17 | 20.2640 | 20.2669 | 0.0029 |
| 2020-01-18 | 19.8768 | 19.8813 | 0.0045 |
| 2020-01-19 | 19.0398 | 19.0459 | 0.0062 |
| 2020-01-20 | 18.7801 | 18.7873 | 0.0071 |
| 2020-01-21 | 19.5031 | 19.5112 | 0.0081 |
| 2020-01-22 | 20.9462 | 20.9563 | 0.010 |
| 2020-01-23 | 22.4806 | 22.4922 | 0.012 |
| 2020-01-24 | 23.2447 | 23.2581 | 0.013 |
| 2020-01-25 | 22.8575 | 22.8726 | 0.015 |
| 2020-01-26 | 22.0204 | 22.0372 | 0.017 |
| 2020-01-27 | 21.7608 | 21.7785 | 0.018 |
| 2020-01-28 | 22.4838 | 22.5025 | 0.019 |
| 2020-01-29 | 23.9268 | 23.9476 | 0.021 |
| 2020-01-30 | 25.4612 | 25.4834 | 0.022 |
| 2020-01-31 | 26.2253 | 26.2494 | 0.024 |
| 2020-02-01 | 25.8381 | 25.8639 | 0.026 |
| 2020-02-02 | 25.0011 | 25.0285 | 0.027 |
| 2020-02-03 | 24.7415 | 24.7698 | 0.028 |
| 2020-02-04 | 25.4644 | 25.4938 | 0.029 |
| 2020-02-05 | 26.9075 | 26.9389 | 0.031 |
| 2020-02-06 | 28.4419 | 28.4747 | 0.033 |
| 2020-02-07 | 29.2060 | 29.2407 | 0.035 |
| 2020-02-08 | 28.8188 | 28.8552 | 0.036 |
| 2020-02-09 | 27.9817 | 28.0198 | 0.038 |
| 2020-02-10 | 27.7221 | 27.7611 | 0.039 |
| 2020-02-11 | 28.4451 | 28.4850 | 0.040 |
| 2020-02-12 | 29.8882 | 29.9302 | 0.042 |
| 2020-02-13 | 31.4226 | 31.4660 | 0.043 |
| 2020-02-14 | 32.1866 | 32.2320 | 0.045 |
| 2020-02-15 | 31.7995 | 31.8464 | 0.047 |
| 2020-02-16 | 30.9624 | 31.0111 | 0.049 |
| 2020-02-17 | 30.7028 | 30.7524 | 0.050 |
| 2020-02-18 | 31.4166 | 31.4613 | 0.045 |
| 2020-02-19 | 32.8505 | 32.8915 | 0.041 |
| 2020-02-20 | 34.3758 | 34.4123 | 0.037 |
| 2020-02-21 | 35.1307 | 35.1633 | 0.033 |
| 2020-02-22 | 34.7344 | 34.7628 | 0.028 |
| 2020-02-23 | 33.8882 | 33.9124 | 0.024 |
| 2020-02-24 | 33.6194 | 33.6388 | 0.019 |
| 2020-02-25 | 34.3332 | 34.3477 | 0.014 |
| 2020-02-26 | 35.7672 | 35.7779 | 0.011 |
| 2020-02-27 | 37.2924 | 37.2987 | 0.0063 |
| 2020-02-28 | 38.0474 | 38.0497 | 0.0023 |
| 2020-02-29 | 37.6453 | 37.6469 | 0.0016 |
| 2020-03-01 | 36.7934 | 36.7942 | 0.00083 |
| 2020-03-02 | 36.5189 | 36.5182 | 0.00066 |
| 2020-03-03 | 37.2270 | 37.2249 | 0.0021 |
| 2020-03-04 | 38.6552 | 38.6527 | 0.0025 |
| 2020-03-05 | 40.1747 | 40.1713 | 0.0035 |
| 2020-03-06 | 40.9239 | 40.9199 | 0.0040 |
| 2020-03-07 | 40.5219 | 40.5171 | 0.0048 |
| 2020-03-08 | 39.6699 | 39.6644 | 0.0055 |
| 2020-03-09 | 39.3954 | 39.3885 | 0.0070 |
| 2020-03-10 | 40.1035 | 40.0951 | 0.0084 |
| 2020-03-11 | 41.5317 | 41.5230 | 0.0088 |
| 2020-03-12 | 43.0513 | 43.0415 | 0.0098 |
| 2020-03-13 | 43.8005 | 43.7902 | 0.010 |
| 2020-03-14 | 43.3984 | 43.3873 | 0.011 |
| 2020-03-15 | 42.5465 | 42.5347 | 0.012 |
| 2020-03-16 | 42.2720 | 42.2587 | 0.013 |
| 2020-03-17 | 42.9801 | 42.9653 | 0.015 |
| 2020-03-18 | 44.4083 | 44.3932 | 0.015 |
| 2020-03-19 | 45.9278 | 45.9117 | 0.016 |
| 2020-03-20 | 46.6770 | 46.6604 | 0.017 |
| 2020-03-21 | 46.2749 | 46.2576 | 0.017 |
| 2020-03-22 | 45.4230 | 45.4049 | 0.018 |
| 2020-03-23 | 45.1485 | 45.1289 | 0.020 |
| 2020-03-24 | 45.8566 | 45.8355 | 0.021 |
| 2020-03-25 | 47.2848 | 47.2633 | 0.021 |
| 2020-03-26 | 48.8043 | 48.7819 | 0.022 |
| 2020-03-27 | 49.5535 | 49.5305 | 0.023 |
| 2020-03-28 | 49.1515 | 49.1277 | 0.024 |
| 2020-03-29 | 48.2995 | 48.2750 | 0.025 |
| 2020-03-30 | 48.0250 | 47.9990 | 0.026 |
| 2020-03-31 | 48.7331 | 48.7056 | 0.028 |
| 2020-04-01 | 50.1613 | 50.1334 | 0.028 |
| 2020-04-02 | 51.6809 | 51.6520 | 0.029 |
| 2020-04-03 | 52.4301 | 52.4006 | 0.029 |
| 2020-04-04 | 52.0280 | 51.9973 | 0.031 |
| 2020-04-05 | 51.1761 | 51.1442 | 0.032 |
| 2020-04-06 | 50.9016 | 50.8677 | 0.034 |
| 2020-04-07 | 51.6097 | 51.5739 | 0.036 |
| 2020-04-08 | 53.0379 | 53.0013 | 0.037 |
| 2020-04-09 | 54.5574 | 54.5193 | 0.038 |
| 2020-04-10 | 55.3066 | 55.2675 | 0.039 |
| 2020-04-11 | 54.9046 | 54.8642 | 0.040 |
| 2020-04-12 | 54.0526 | 54.0111 | 0.042 |
| 2020-04-13 | 53.7781 | 53.7346 | 0.044 |
| 2020-04-14 | 54.4862 | 54.4408 | 0.045 |
| 2020-04-15 | 55.9144 | 55.8682 | 0.046 |
| 2020-04-16 | 57.4340 | 57.3862 | 0.048 |
| 2020-04-17 | 58.1832 | 58.1344 | 0.049 |
| 2020-04-18 | 57.7811 | 57.7311 | 0.050 |
| 2020-04-19 | 56.9292 | 56.8779 | 0.051 |
| 2020-04-20 | 56.6547 | 56.6015 | 0.053 |
| 2020-04-21 | 57.3628 | 57.3076 | 0.055 |
| 2020-04-22 | 58.7910 | 58.7350 | 0.056 |
| 2020-04-23 | 60.3105 | 60.2531 | 0.057 |
| 2020-04-24 | 61.0597 | 61.0012 | 0.058 |
| 2020-04-25 | 60.6576 | 60.5979 | 0.060 |
| 2020-04-26 | 59.8057 | 59.7448 | 0.061 |
| 2020-04-27 | 59.5312 | 59.4683 | 0.063 |
| 2020-04-28 | 60.2393 | 60.1745 | 0.065 |
| 2020-04-29 | 61.6675 | 61.6019 | 0.066 |
| 2020-04-30 | 63.1870 | 63.1199 | 0.067 |
| 2020-05-01 | 63.9362 | 63.8681 | 0.068 |
| 2020-05-02 | 63.5342 | 63.4648 | 0.069 |
| 2020-05-03 | 62.6822 | 62.6116 | 0.071 |
| 2020-05-04 | 62.4077 | 62.3352 | 0.073 |
| 2020-05-05 | 63.1158 | 63.0413 | 0.074 |
| 2020-05-06 | 64.5440 | 64.4687 | 0.075 |
| 2020-05-07 | 66.0636 | 65.9867 | 0.077 |
| 2020-05-08 | 66.8128 | 66.7349 | 0.078 |
| 2020-05-09 | 66.3584 | 66.2942 | 0.064 |
| 2020-05-10 | 65.4542 | 65.4036 | 0.051 |
| 2020-05-11 | 65.1274 | 65.0897 | 0.038 |
| 2020-05-12 | 65.7831 | 65.7584 | 0.025 |
| 2020-05-13 | 67.1590 | 67.1484 | 0.011 |
| 2020-05-14 | 68.6263 | 68.6290 | 0.0027 |
| 2020-05-15 | 69.3232 | 69.3397 | 0.017 |
| 2020-05-16 | 68.8688 | 68.8990 | 0.030 |
| 2020-05-17 | 67.9645 | 68.0084 | 0.044 |
| 2020-05-18 | 67.6377 | 67.6945 | 0.057 |
| 2020-05-19 | 68.2935 | 68.3632 | 0.070 |
| 2020-05-20 | 69.6694 | 69.7532 | 0.084 |
| 2020-05-21 | 71.0405 | 71.1192 | 0.079 |
| 2020-05-22 | 71.6413 | 71.7155 | 0.074 |
| 2020-05-23 | 71.0908 | 71.1602 | 0.069 |
| 2020-05-24 | 70.0905 | 70.1551 | 0.065 |
| 2020-05-25 | 69.6675 | 69.7266 | 0.059 |
| 2020-05-26 | 70.2272 | 70.2808 | 0.054 |
| 2020-05-27 | 71.5070 | 71.5562 | 0.049 |
| 2020-05-28 | 72.8781 | 72.9223 | 0.044 |
| 2020-05-29 | 73.4789 | 73.5185 | 0.040 |
| 2020-05-30 | 72.9284 | 72.9633 | 0.035 |
| 2020-05-31 | 71.9280 | 71.9581 | 0.030 |
| 2020-06-01 | 71.4440 | 71.4733 | 0.029 |
| 2020-06-02 | 71.9427 | 71.9710 | 0.028 |
| 2020-06-03 | 73.1614 | 73.1900 | 0.029 |
| 2020-06-04 | 74.4715 | 74.4996 | 0.028 |
| 2020-06-05 | 75.0112 | 75.0394 | 0.028 |
| 2020-06-06 | 74.3997 | 74.4277 | 0.028 |
| 2020-06-07 | 73.3383 | 73.3661 | 0.028 |
| 2020-06-08 | 72.8543 | 72.8812 | 0.027 |
| 2020-06-09 | 73.3529 | 73.3790 | 0.026 |
| 2020-06-10 | 74.5717 | 74.5979 | 0.026 |
| 2020-06-11 | 75.8817 | 75.9076 | 0.026 |
| 2020-06-12 | 76.4215 | 76.4474 | 0.026 |
| 2020-06-13 | 75.8099 | 75.8356 | 0.026 |
| 2020-06-14 | 74.7485 | 74.7741 | 0.026 |
| 2020-06-15 | 74.2646 | 74.2892 | 0.025 |
| 2020-06-16 | 74.7632 | 74.7870 | 0.024 |
| 2020-06-17 | 75.9819 | 76.0059 | 0.024 |
| 2020-06-18 | 77.2920 | 77.3155 | 0.024 |
| 2020-06-19 | 77.8317 | 77.8553 | 0.024 |
| 2020-06-20 | 77.2202 | 77.2436 | 0.023 |
| 2020-06-21 | 76.1588 | 76.1820 | 0.023 |
| 2020-06-22 | 75.6748 | 75.6972 | 0.022 |
| 2020-06-23 | 76.1734 | 76.1949 | 0.022 |
| 2020-06-24 | 77.3922 | 77.4139 | 0.022 |
| 2020-06-25 | 78.7022 | 78.7235 | 0.021 |
| 2020-06-26 | 79.2420 | 79.2633 | 0.021 |
| 2020-06-27 | 78.6304 | 78.6516 | 0.021 |
| 2020-06-28 | 77.5690 | 77.5900 | 0.021 |
| 2020-06-29 | 77.0851 | 77.1051 | 0.020 |
| 2020-06-30 | 77.5837 | 77.6029 | 0.019 |
| 2020-07-01 | 78.8024 | 78.8219 | 0.019 |
| 2020-07-02 | 80.1125 | 80.1315 | 0.019 |
| 2020-07-03 | 80.6522 | 80.6713 | 0.019 |
| 2020-07-04 | 80.0407 | 80.0596 | 0.019 |
| 2020-07-05 | 78.9793 | 78.9980 | 0.019 |
| 2020-07-06 | 78.4953 | 78.5131 | 0.018 |
| 2020-07-07 | 78.9940 | 79.0109 | 0.017 |
| 2020-07-08 | 80.2127 | 80.2298 | 0.017 |
| 2020-07-09 | 81.5228 | 81.5395 | 0.017 |
| 2020-07-10 | 82.0625 | 82.0792 | 0.017 |
| 2020-07-11 | 81.4510 | 81.4675 | 0.017 |
| 2020-07-12 | 80.3896 | 80.4060 | 0.016 |
| 2020-07-13 | 79.9056 | 79.9211 | 0.015 |
| 2020-07-14 | 80.4042 | 80.4188 | 0.015 |
| 2020-07-15 | 81.6230 | 81.6378 | 0.015 |
| 2020-07-16 | 82.9330 | 82.9474 | 0.014 |
| 2020-07-17 | 83.4728 | 83.4872 | 0.014 |
| 2020-07-18 | 82.8612 | 82.8755 | 0.014 |
| 2020-07-19 | 81.7998 | 81.8139 | 0.014 |
| 2020-07-20 | 81.3159 | 81.3291 | 0.013 |
| 2020-07-21 | 81.8145 | 81.8268 | 0.012 |
| 2020-07-22 | 83.0332 | 83.0458 | 0.013 |
| 2020-07-23 | 84.3433 | 84.3554 | 0.012 |
| 2020-07-24 | 84.8830 | 84.8952 | 0.012 |
| 2020-07-25 | 84.2715 | 84.2835 | 0.012 |
| 2020-07-26 | 83.2101 | 83.2219 | 0.012 |
| 2020-07-27 | 82.7261 | 82.7370 | 0.011 |
| 2020-07-28 | 83.2247 | 83.2348 | 0.010 |
| 2020-07-29 | 84.4435 | 84.4537 | 0.010 |
| 2020-07-30 | 85.7535 | 85.7634 | 0.0098 |
| 2020-07-31 | 86.2933 | 86.3032 | 0.0099 |
| 2020-08-01 | 85.6817 | 85.6914 | 0.0097 |
| 2020-08-02 | 84.6203 | 84.6299 | 0.0095 |
| 2020-08-03 | 84.1364 | 84.1450 | 0.0086 |
| 2020-08-04 | 84.6350 | 84.6428 | 0.0078 |
| 2020-08-05 | 85.8537 | 85.8617 | 0.0080 |
| 2020-08-06 | 87.1638 | 87.1713 | 0.0075 |
| 2020-08-07 | 87.7035 | 87.7111 | 0.0076 |
| 2020-08-08 | 87.0920 | 87.0994 | 0.0074 |
| 2020-08-09 | 86.0306 | 86.0378 | 0.0072 |
| 2020-08-10 | 85.5466 | 85.5530 | 0.0063 |
| 2020-08-11 | 86.0453 | 86.0507 | 0.0055 |
| 2020-08-12 | 87.2640 | 87.2697 | 0.0057 |
| 2020-08-13 | 88.5741 | 88.5793 | 0.0052 |
| 2020-08-14 | 89.1138 | 89.1191 | 0.0053 |
| 2020-08-15 | 88.5023 | 88.5074 | 0.0051 |
| 2020-08-16 | 87.4409 | 87.4458 | 0.0049 |
| 2020-08-17 | 86.9569 | 86.9609 | 0.0040 |
| 2020-08-18 | 87.4555 | 87.4587 | 0.0032 |
| 2020-08-19 | 88.6743 | 88.6776 | 0.0034 |
| 2020-08-20 | 89.9843 | 89.9873 | 0.0030 |
| 2020-08-21 | 90.5240 | 90.5271 | 0.0030 |
| 2020-08-22 | 89.9125 | 89.9153 | 0.0028 |
| 2020-08-23 | 88.8511 | 88.8538 | 0.0027 |
| 2020-08-24 | 88.3672 | 88.3689 | 0.0017 |
| 2020-08-25 | 88.8658 | 88.8667 | 0.00089 |
| 2020-08-26 | 90.0845 | 90.0856 | 0.0011 |
| 2020-08-27 | 91.3946 | 91.3952 | 0.00067 |
| 2020-08-28 | 91.9343 | 91.9350 | 0.00072 |
| 2020-08-29 | 91.3228 | 91.3233 | 0.00053 |
| 2020-08-30 | 90.2614 | 90.2617 | 0.00036 |
| 2020-08-31 | 89.7774 | 89.7769 | 0.00054 |
| 2020-09-01 | 90.2760 | 90.2746 | 0.0014 |
| 2020-09-02 | 91.5790 | 91.5653 | 0.014 |
| 2020-09-03 | 92.9733 | 92.9467 | 0.027 |
| 2020-09-04 | 93.5973 | 93.5582 | 0.039 |
| 2020-09-05 | 93.0700 | 93.0182 | 0.052 |
| 2020-09-06 | 92.0929 | 92.0284 | 0.064 |
| 2020-09-07 | 91.6931 | 91.6153 | 0.078 |
| 2020-09-08 | 92.2760 | 92.1848 | 0.091 |
| 2020-09-09 | 93.5790 | 93.4755 | 0.10 |
| 2020-09-10 | 94.9733 | 94.8569 | 0.12 |
| 2020-09-11 | 95.5972 | 95.4684 | 0.13 |
| 2020-09-12 | 95.0700 | 94.9284 | 0.14 |
| 2020-09-13 | 94.0928 | 93.9386 | 0.15 |
| 2020-09-14 | 93.8242 | 93.6817 | 0.14 |
| 2020-09-15 | 94.5383 | 94.4075 | 0.13 |
| 2020-09-16 | 95.9724 | 95.8544 | 0.12 |
| 2020-09-17 | 97.4979 | 97.3920 | 0.11 |
| 2020-09-18 | 98.2530 | 98.1598 | 0.093 |
| 2020-09-19 | 97.8569 | 97.7761 | 0.081 |
| 2020-09-20 | 97.0109 | 96.9425 | 0.068 |
| 2020-09-21 | 96.7424 | 96.6857 | 0.057 |
| 2020-09-22 | 97.4564 | 97.4114 | 0.045 |
| 2020-09-23 | 98.8906 | 98.8584 | 0.032 |
| 2020-09-24 | 100.4160 | 100.3960 | 0.020 |
| 2020-09-25 | 101.1712 | 101.1638 | 0.0074 |
| 2020-09-26 | 100.8541 | 100.8578 | 0.0037 |
| 2020-09-27 | 100.0871 | 100.1019 | 0.015 |
| 2020-09-28 | 99.8975 | 99.9227 | 0.025 |
| 2020-09-29 | 100.6906 | 100.7262 | 0.036 |
| 2020-09-30 | 102.2037 | 102.2508 | 0.047 |
| 2020-10-01 | 103.8082 | 103.8661 | 0.058 |
| 2020-10-02 | 104.6423 | 104.7116 | 0.069 |
| 2020-10-03 | 104.3252 | 104.4056 | 0.080 |
| 2020-10-04 | 103.5583 | 103.6497 | 0.091 |
| 2020-10-05 | 103.3687 | 103.4705 | 0.10 |
| 2020-10-06 | 104.1617 | 104.2739 | 0.11 |
| 2020-10-07 | 105.6947 | 105.7998 | 0.11 |
| 2020-10-08 | 107.3191 | 107.4162 | 0.097 |
| 2020-10-09 | 108.1730 | 108.2629 | 0.090 |
| 2020-10-10 | 107.8758 | 107.9580 | 0.082 |
| 2020-10-11 | 107.1286 | 107.2033 | 0.075 |
| 2020-10-12 | 106.9589 | 107.0253 | 0.066 |
| 2020-10-13 | 107.7718 | 107.8299 | 0.058 |
| 2020-10-14 | 109.3048 | 109.3557 | 0.051 |
| 2020-10-15 | 110.9291 | 110.9722 | 0.043 |
| 2020-10-16 | 111.7831 | 111.8189 | 0.036 |
| 2020-10-17 | 111.4858 | 111.5140 | 0.028 |
| 2020-10-18 | 110.7386 | 110.7593 | 0.021 |
| 2020-10-19 | 110.5689 | 110.5885 | 0.020 |
| 2020-10-20 | 111.3818 | 111.4003 | 0.018 |
| 2020-10-21 | 112.9148 | 112.9332 | 0.018 |
| 2020-10-22 | 114.5392 | 114.5569 | 0.018 |
| 2020-10-23 | 115.3932 | 115.4107 | 0.018 |
| 2020-10-24 | 115.0959 | 115.1130 | 0.017 |
| 2020-10-25 | 114.3488 | 114.3655 | 0.017 |
| 2020-10-26 | 114.1791 | 114.1946 | 0.016 |
| 2020-10-27 | 114.9920 | 115.0064 | 0.014 |
| 2020-10-28 | 116.5250 | 116.5394 | 0.014 |
| 2020-10-29 | 118.1493 | 118.1630 | 0.014 |
| 2020-10-30 | 119.0033 | 119.0168 | 0.014 |
| 2020-10-31 | 118.7060 | 118.7192 | 0.013 |
| 2020-11-01 | 117.9589 | 117.9716 | 0.013 |
| 2020-11-02 | 117.7892 | 117.8008 | 0.012 |
| 2020-11-03 | 118.6021 | 118.6126 | 0.010 |
| 2020-11-04 | 120.1351 | 120.1455 | 0.010 |
| 2020-11-05 | 121.7594 | 121.7692 | 0.0098 |
| 2020-11-06 | 122.6134 | 122.6230 | 0.0096 |
| 2020-11-07 | 122.3162 | 122.3253 | 0.0091 |
| 2020-11-08 | 121.5690 | 121.5778 | 0.0087 |
| 2020-11-09 | 121.3993 | 121.4069 | 0.0076 |
| 2020-11-10 | 122.2122 | 122.2187 | 0.0065 |
| 2020-11-11 | 123.7452 | 123.7517 | 0.0065 |
| 2020-11-12 | 125.3695 | 125.3753 | 0.0058 |
| 2020-11-13 | 126.2235 | 126.2291 | 0.0056 |
| 2020-11-14 | 125.9263 | 125.9314 | 0.0052 |
| 2020-11-15 | 125.1791 | 125.1839 | 0.0048 |
| 2020-11-16 | 125.0094 | 125.0131 | 0.0036 |
| 2020-11-17 | 125.8223 | 125.8248 | 0.0025 |
| 2020-11-18 | 127.3553 | 127.3578 | 0.0025 |
| 2020-11-19 | 128.9797 | 128.9815 | 0.0018 |
| 2020-11-20 | 129.8337 | 129.8353 | 0.0016 |
| 2020-11-21 | 129.5364 | 129.5376 | 0.0012 |
| 2020-11-22 | 128.7893 | 128.7901 | 0.00079 |
| 2020-11-23 | 128.6196 | 128.6192 | 0.00036 |
| 2020-11-24 | 129.4325 | 129.4310 | 0.0015 |
| 2020-11-25 | 130.9655 | 130.9640 | 0.0015 |
| 2020-11-26 | 132.5898 | 132.5876 | 0.0022 |
| 2020-11-27 | 133.4438 | 133.4414 | 0.0023 |
| 2020-11-28 | 133.1465 | 133.1437 | 0.0028 |
| 2020-11-29 | 132.3994 | 132.3962 | 0.0032 |
| 2020-11-30 | 132.2297 | 132.2254 | 0.0043 |
| 2020-12-01 | 133.0426 | 133.0371 | 0.0054 |
| 2020-12-02 | 134.5756 | 134.5701 | 0.0055 |
| 2020-12-03 | 136.1999 | 136.1938 | 0.0061 |
| 2020-12-04 | 137.0539 | 137.0476 | 0.0063 |
| 2020-12-05 | 136.7567 | 136.7499 | 0.0068 |
| 2020-12-06 | 136.0095 | 136.0024 | 0.0072 |
| 2020-12-07 | 135.8398 | 135.8315 | 0.0083 |
| 2020-12-08 | 136.6527 | 136.6433 | 0.0094 |
| 2020-12-09 | 138.1857 | 138.1763 | 0.0094 |
| 2020-12-10 | 139.8100 | 139.7999 | 0.010 |
| 2020-12-11 | 140.6640 | 140.6537 | 0.010 |
| 2020-12-12 | 140.3668 | 140.3560 | 0.011 |
| 2020-12-13 | 139.6196 | 139.6085 | 0.011 |
| 2020-12-14 | 139.4499 | 139.4377 | 0.012 |
| 2020-12-15 | 140.2628 | 140.2494 | 0.013 |
| 2020-12-16 | 141.7958 | 141.7824 | 0.013 |
| 2020-12-17 | 143.4202 | 143.4061 | 0.014 |
| 2020-12-18 | 144.2742 | 144.2599 | 0.014 |
| 2020-12-19 | 143.9769 | 143.9622 | 0.015 |
| 2020-12-20 | 143.2298 | 143.2147 | 0.015 |
| 2020-12-21 | 143.0601 | 143.0438 | 0.016 |
| 2020-12-22 | 143.8730 | 143.8556 | 0.017 |
| 2020-12-23 | 145.4060 | 145.3886 | 0.017 |
| 2020-12-24 | 147.0303 | 147.0122 | 0.018 |
| 2020-12-25 | 147.8843 | 147.8660 | 0.018 |
| 2020-12-26 | 147.5870 | 147.5683 | 0.019 |
| 2020-12-27 | 146.8399 | 146.8208 | 0.019 |
| 2020-12-28 | 146.6702 | 146.6500 | 0.020 |
| 2020-12-29 | 147.4831 | 147.4617 | 0.021 |
| 2020-12-30 | 149.0161 | 148.9947 | 0.021 |

## Internal fit differences

The forecasts match, so this case passes. Both libraries search for the best-fitting parameters and stop when they are close enough. On this input they stopped at slightly different points, so these internal numbers differ by more than the threshold where we take a closer look.

| Check | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Threshold |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fitting objective (lower is a better fit) | -1465.4840 | -1466.4526 | 0.01 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Fit | 7.36 ms | 30.1 ms | 4.1× faster |
| Simulate uncertainty | 13.0 ms | 167 ms | Not compared: different work |
| Fit and find anomalies | 25.2 ms | 199 ms | 7.9× faster |

Some steps aren't compared, because the two libraries' public calls produce different outputs. Their times show what each call costs, not which library is faster.

* **Simulate uncertainty:** Python's `predict(vectorized=False)` also builds the point forecast and every component, while Effect Prophet's `predictUncertainty` returns only the ranges.

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "linear-output-first-v4"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "linear",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true
  },
  "uncertainty": {
    "seed": 19,
    "samples": 1000,
    "intervalWidth": 0.99,
    "output": "intervals",
    "algorithm": "scalar-continuous-time",
    "evidence": "docs/validation/uncertainty.md#evidence-classes",
    "samplerMemoryLimitBytes": 67108864
  },
  "anomalies": {
    "expected": [
      "2020-02-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "2020-04-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "2020-08-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "2020-10-27T00:00:00.000Z"
    ]
  }
}
```