---
url: https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/flat/flat-defaults-level.md
---

# Defaults, steady level

 [← All flat growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/flat)

96 days hovering around one value. Weekly seasonality switches on automatically.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v1/flat-level.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v1/flat-level.json): 96 history rows and 24 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **1.2e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2020-04-06 | 34.9983 | 34.9983 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-07 | 35.0061 | 35.0061 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-08 | 35.0025 | 35.0025 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-09 | 35.0023 | 35.0023 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-10 | 35.0014 | 35.0014 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-11 | 35.0004 | 35.0004 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-12 | 34.9995 | 34.9995 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-13 | 34.9983 | 34.9983 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-14 | 35.0061 | 35.0061 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-15 | 35.0025 | 35.0025 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-16 | 35.0023 | 35.0023 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-17 | 35.0014 | 35.0014 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-18 | 35.0004 | 35.0004 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-19 | 34.9995 | 34.9995 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-20 | 34.9983 | 34.9983 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-21 | 35.0061 | 35.0061 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-22 | 35.0025 | 35.0025 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-23 | 35.0023 | 35.0023 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-24 | 35.0014 | 35.0014 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-25 | 35.0004 | 35.0004 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-26 | 34.9995 | 34.9995 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-27 | 34.9983 | 34.9983 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-28 | 35.0061 | 35.0061 | 1.2e-11 |
| 2020-04-29 | 35.0025 | 35.0025 | 1.2e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Convert input rows | 17 µs | 483 µs | 29× faster |
| Fit | 1.88 ms | 9.24 ms | 4.9× faster |
| Predict | 280 µs | 3.14 ms | 11× faster |
| Fit and predict | 1.48 ms | 12.2 ms | 8.3× faster |
| Convert, fit and predict | 1.39 ms | 12.7 ms | 9.1× faster |
| First forecast in a new process | 172 ms | 1.46 s | 8.5× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 34 µs | 459 µs | 14× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 118 µs | 2.16 ms | 18× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 164 ms | 1.44 s | 8.8× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "flat-growth-reduced-v1"
  },
  "fitRequest": "growth-only",
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "flat",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [
      {
        "name": "weekly",
        "periodDays": 7,
        "fourierOrder": 3,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true
  }
}
```