US holidays, additive

match ← All flat growth benchmarks

96 daily rows from 2024, country holidays plus custom January events, including simultaneous activations. Prediction spans late 2024 and early 2025; fitting includes lookup, and saved models embed the country snapshot.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v5/country-basic-96.json: 96 history rows and 4 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.00015 (0.0048% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2024-12-25	20.0010	20.0010	2.2e-6
2025-01-01	23.0356	23.0354	0.00015
2025-01-02	20.0010	20.0010	2.2e-6
2025-01-05	21.4447	21.4446	7.0e-5

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Convert input rows	15 µs	477 µs	31× faster
Fit	15.8 ms	49.6 ms	3.1× faster
Predict	247 µs	6.36 ms	26× faster
Fit and predict	14.2 ms	53.4 ms	3.8× faster
Convert, fit and predict	13.7 ms	53.3 ms	3.9× faster
First forecast in a new process	186 ms	1.67 s	9.0× faster
Save model to JSON	93 µs	707 µs	7.6× faster
Load model from JSON	978 µs	4.06 ms	4.2× faster
Load and predict in a new process	161 ms	1.66 s	10× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "flat",
    "countryHolidays": {
      "country": "US",
      "coverage": "reject-known-gaps",
      "priorScale": 10
    },
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}