Explicit US control, multiplicative

match ← All flat growth benchmarks

The same rows, occurrences, priors, mode and fitted names as the corresponding country case, but all dates are explicit events and no country snapshot is embedded.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v5/country-basic-96.json: 96 history rows and 4 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 3.5e-10 (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2024-12-25	20.0010	20.0010	3.5e-10
2025-01-01	23.0368	23.0368	9.9e-12
2025-01-02	20.0010	20.0010	1.1e-11
2025-01-05	21.4459	21.4459	9.5e-12

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Convert input rows	13 µs	455 µs	36× faster
Fit	3.27 ms	13.6 ms	4.2× faster
Predict	198 µs	4.86 ms	25× faster
Fit and predict	2.69 ms	17.9 ms	6.7× faster
Convert, fit and predict	2.53 ms	18.7 ms	7.4× faster
First forecast in a new process	168 ms	1.42 s	8.4× faster
Save model to JSON	22 µs	685 µs	30× faster
Load model from JSON	407 µs	3.93 ms	9.6× faster
Load and predict in a new process	154 ms	1.40 s	9.1× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "flat",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "multiplicative",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Martin Luther King Jr. Day",
        "date": "2024-01-15",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington's Birthday",
        "date": "2024-02-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Memorial Day",
        "date": "2024-05-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Juneteenth National Independence Day",
        "date": "2024-06-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
        "date": "2024-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Labor Day",
        "date": "2024-09-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Columbus Day",
        "date": "2024-10-14",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Veterans Day",
        "date": "2024-11-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Thanksgiving Day",
        "date": "2024-11-28",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2024-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Martin Luther King Jr. Day",
        "date": "2025-01-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington's Birthday",
        "date": "2025-02-17",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Memorial Day",
        "date": "2025-05-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Juneteenth National Independence Day",
        "date": "2025-06-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Labor Day",
        "date": "2025-09-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Columbus Day",
        "date": "2025-10-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Veterans Day",
        "date": "2025-11-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Thanksgiving Day",
        "date": "2025-11-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2025-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}