Explicit US control, additive

match ← All flat growth benchmarks

The same rows, occurrences, priors, mode and fitted names as the corresponding country case, but all dates are explicit events and no country snapshot is embedded.

Input

benchmark/inputs/v5/country-basic-96.json: 96 history rows and 4 forecast rows.

Output

Largest difference: 0.00015 (0.0048% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

Date	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Difference
2024-12-25	20.0010	20.0010	2.2e-6
2025-01-01	23.0356	23.0354	0.00015
2025-01-02	20.0010	20.0010	2.2e-6
2025-01-05	21.4447	21.4446	7.0e-5

Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

Step	Effect Prophet	Python Prophet	Effect Prophet is
Convert input rows	12 µs	465 µs	37× faster
Fit	13.8 ms	44.1 ms	3.2× faster
Predict	228 µs	5.20 ms	23× faster
Fit and predict	13.1 ms	51.3 ms	3.9× faster
Convert, fit and predict	13.2 ms	50.3 ms	3.8× faster
First forecast in a new process	194 ms	1.53 s	7.9× faster
Save model to JSON	26 µs	725 µs	28× faster
Load model from JSON	423 µs	4.10 ms	9.7× faster
Load and predict in a new process	158 ms	1.46 s	9.2× faster

Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "flat",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2024-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "launch",
        "date": "2025-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2024-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Martin Luther King Jr. Day",
        "date": "2024-01-15",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington's Birthday",
        "date": "2024-02-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Memorial Day",
        "date": "2024-05-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Juneteenth National Independence Day",
        "date": "2024-06-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
        "date": "2024-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Labor Day",
        "date": "2024-09-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Columbus Day",
        "date": "2024-10-14",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Veterans Day",
        "date": "2024-11-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Thanksgiving Day",
        "date": "2024-11-28",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2024-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2025-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Martin Luther King Jr. Day",
        "date": "2025-01-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Washington's Birthday",
        "date": "2025-02-17",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Memorial Day",
        "date": "2025-05-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Juneteenth National Independence Day",
        "date": "2025-06-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Independence Day",
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Labor Day",
        "date": "2025-09-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Columbus Day",
        "date": "2025-10-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Veterans Day",
        "date": "2025-11-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Thanksgiving Day",
        "date": "2025-11-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2025-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      }
    ],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}