---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/flat/country-explicit-se-flat-2190-batch-32.md
---

# Explicit SE events, 2,190 training rows / 32 prediction rows

 [← All flat growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/flat)

The country case's training-year dates and trained names' future dates as ordinary events, separating calendar machinery from the cost of the extra holiday columns.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v6/country-scaling-2190-batch-32.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v6/country-scaling-2190-batch-32.json): 2190 history rows and 32 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **4.8e-10** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2025-12-30 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2025-12-31 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-01 | 23.0066 | 23.0066 | 3.7e-10 |
| 2026-01-02 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-03 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-04 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-05 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-06 | 19.9937 | 19.9937 | 4.8e-10 |
| 2026-01-07 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-08 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-09 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-10 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-11 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-12 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-13 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-14 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-15 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-16 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-17 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-18 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-19 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-20 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-21 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-23 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-24 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-25 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-27 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-28 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-29 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-30 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Fit | 13.1 ms | 38.8 ms | 3.0× faster |
| Predict | 378 µs | 12.2 ms | 32× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 42 µs | 2.88 ms | 69× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 2.70 ms | 7.29 ms | 2.7× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 178 ms | 1.45 s | 8.1× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "flat",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2020-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-01-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Epiphany",
        "date": "2020-01-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-01-12",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-01-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-01-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-02-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-02-09",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-02-16",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-02-23",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-03-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-03-08",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-03-15",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-03-22",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-03-29",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-04-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Good Friday",
        "date": "2020-04-10",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Easter Sunday",
        "date": "2020-04-12",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-04-12",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Easter Monday",
        "date": "2020-04-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-04-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-04-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "May Day",
        "date": "2020-05-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-05-03",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-05-10",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-05-17",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Ascension Day",
        "date": "2020-05-21",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-05-24",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Pentecost",
        "date": "2020-05-31",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-05-31",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "National Day",
        "date": "2020-06-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-06-07",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-06-14",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Midsummer Day",
        "date": "2020-06-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-06-21",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-06-28",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-07-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-07-12",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-07-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-07-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-08-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-08-09",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-08-16",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-08-23",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-08-30",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-09-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-09-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-09-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-09-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-10-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-10-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-10-18",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-10-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "All Saints' Day",
        "date": "2020-10-31",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-11-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-11-08",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-11-15",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-11-22",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-11-29",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-12-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-12-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-12-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Christmas Day",
        "date": "2020-12-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Second Day of Christmas",
        "date": "2020-12-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2020-12-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "New Year's Day",
        "date": "2021-01-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-01-03",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Epiphany",
        "date": "2021-01-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-01-10",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-01-17",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-01-24",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-01-31",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-02-07",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-02-14",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-02-21",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-02-28",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-03-07",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-03-14",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-03-21",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-03-28",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Good Friday",
        "date": "2021-04-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Easter Sunday",
        "date": "2021-04-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-04-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Easter Monday",
        "date": "2021-04-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-04-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-04-18",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-04-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "May Day",
        "date": "2021-05-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-05-02",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-05-09",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Ascension Day",
        "date": "2021-05-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-05-16",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Pentecost",
        "date": "2021-05-23",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-05-23",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-05-30",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "National Day",
        "date": "2021-06-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-06-06",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-06-13",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-06-20",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Midsummer Day",
        "date": "2021-06-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-06-27",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-07-04",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-07-11",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-07-18",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-07-25",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-08-01",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-08-08",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-08-15",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-08-22",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-08-29",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-09-05",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-09-12",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-09-19",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-09-26",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
        "name": "Sunday",
        "date": "2021-10-03",
        "lowerWindowDays": 0,
        "upperWindowDays": 0,
        "priorScale": 10
      },
      {
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  }
}
```