Explicit SE events, 2,190 training rows / 32 prediction rows
match ← All flat growth benchmarksThe country case's training-year dates and trained names' future dates as ordinary events, separating calendar machinery from the cost of the extra holiday columns.
Input
benchmark/inputs/v6/country-scaling-2190-batch-32.json: 2190 history rows and 32 forecast rows.
Output
Largest difference: 4.8e-10 (< 0.0001% of the input's range).
Every forecast row from both libraries.
| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2025-12-31 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-01 | 23.0066 | 23.0066 | 3.7e-10 |
| 2026-01-02 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-03 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-04 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-05 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-06 | 19.9937 | 19.9937 | 4.8e-10 |
| 2026-01-07 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-08 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-09 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-10 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-11 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-12 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-13 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-14 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-15 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-16 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-17 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-18 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-19 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-20 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-21 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-23 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-24 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-25 | 20.0091 | 20.0091 | 7.5e-11 |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-27 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-28 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-29 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
| 2026-01-30 | 20.0033 | 20.0033 | 9.6e-11 |
Timing
Median of all measured repetitions.
| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fit | 11.8 ms | 41.8 ms | 3.5× faster |
| Predict | 371 µs | 12.4 ms | 33× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 47 µs | 2.93 ms | 62× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 2.53 ms | 7.36 ms | 2.9× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 178 ms | 1.46 s | 8.2× faster |
Settings
The case declaration both libraries ran.
json
{
"kind": "map",
"comparison": {
"kind": "equivalent-objective",
"evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
},
"configuration": {
"growth": "flat",
"scaling": "absmax",
"seasonalityMode": "additive",
"holidaysMode": "additive",
"changepoints": {
"mode": "auto",
"count": 25,
"range": 0.8
},
"changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
"seasonalities": [],
"events": [
{
"name": "New Year's Day",
"date": "2020-01-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-01-05",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Epiphany",
"date": "2020-01-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-01-12",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-01-19",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-01-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-02-02",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-02-09",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-02-16",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-02-23",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-03-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-03-08",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-03-15",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-03-22",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-03-29",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-04-05",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Good Friday",
"date": "2020-04-10",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Easter Sunday",
"date": "2020-04-12",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-04-12",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Easter Monday",
"date": "2020-04-13",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-04-19",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-04-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "May Day",
"date": "2020-05-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-05-03",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-05-10",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-05-17",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Ascension Day",
"date": "2020-05-21",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-05-24",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Pentecost",
"date": "2020-05-31",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-05-31",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "National Day",
"date": "2020-06-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-06-07",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-06-14",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Midsummer Day",
"date": "2020-06-20",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-06-21",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-06-28",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-07-05",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-07-12",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-07-19",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-07-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-08-02",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-08-09",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-08-16",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-08-23",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-08-30",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-09-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-09-13",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-09-20",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-09-27",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-10-04",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-10-11",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-10-18",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-10-25",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "All Saints' Day",
"date": "2020-10-31",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-11-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-11-08",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-11-15",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-11-22",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-11-29",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-12-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-12-13",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-12-20",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Christmas Day",
"date": "2020-12-25",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Second Day of Christmas",
"date": "2020-12-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2020-12-27",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "New Year's Day",
"date": "2021-01-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-01-03",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Epiphany",
"date": "2021-01-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-01-10",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-01-17",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-01-24",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-01-31",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-02-07",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-02-14",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-02-21",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-02-28",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-03-07",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-03-14",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-03-21",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-03-28",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Good Friday",
"date": "2021-04-02",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Easter Sunday",
"date": "2021-04-04",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-04-04",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Easter Monday",
"date": "2021-04-05",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-04-11",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-04-18",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-04-25",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "May Day",
"date": "2021-05-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-05-02",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-05-09",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Ascension Day",
"date": "2021-05-13",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-05-16",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Pentecost",
"date": "2021-05-23",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-05-23",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-05-30",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "National Day",
"date": "2021-06-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-06-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-06-13",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-06-20",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Midsummer Day",
"date": "2021-06-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-06-27",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-07-04",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-07-11",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-07-18",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-07-25",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-08-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-08-08",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-08-15",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-08-22",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-08-29",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-09-05",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-09-12",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-09-19",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-09-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-10-03",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-10-10",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-10-17",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-10-24",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-10-31",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "All Saints' Day",
"date": "2021-11-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-11-07",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-11-14",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-11-21",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-11-28",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-12-05",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-12-12",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-12-19",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Christmas Day",
"date": "2021-12-25",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Second Day of Christmas",
"date": "2021-12-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2021-12-26",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "New Year's Day",
"date": "2022-01-01",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
"date": "2022-01-02",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Epiphany",
"date": "2022-01-06",
"lowerWindowDays": 0,
"upperWindowDays": 0,
"priorScale": 10
},
{
"name": "Sunday",
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