---
url: >-
  https://jer-k.github.io/effect-prophet/benchmarks/flat/country-explicit-empty-flat.md
---

# No-calendar empty control

 [← All flat growth benchmarks](/benchmarks/flat)

The same history and forecast rows as the empty-country case, with no events or embedded country data.

## Input

[`benchmark/inputs/v5/country-basic-96.json`](https://github.com/jer-k/effect-prophet/blob/main/benchmark/inputs/v5/country-basic-96.json): 96 history rows and 4 forecast rows.

## Output

Largest difference: **1.1e-11** (< 0.0001% of the input's range).

Every forecast row from both libraries.

| Date | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Difference |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 2024-12-25 | 20.0473 | 20.0473 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2025-01-01 | 20.0473 | 20.0473 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2025-01-02 | 20.0473 | 20.0473 | 1.1e-11 |
| 2025-01-05 | 20.0473 | 20.0473 | 1.1e-11 |

## Timing

Median of all measured repetitions.

| Step | Effect Prophet | Python Prophet | Effect Prophet is |
| --- | ---: | ---: | --- |
| Convert input rows | 12 µs | 458 µs | 39× faster |
| Fit | 1.78 ms | 8.19 ms | 4.6× faster |
| Predict | 123 µs | 2.59 ms | 21× faster |
| Fit and predict | 1.21 ms | 10.8 ms | 8.9× faster |
| Convert, fit and predict | 1.09 ms | 11.2 ms | 10× faster |
| First forecast in a new process | 170 ms | 1.42 s | 8.3× faster |
| Save model to JSON | 21 µs | 427 µs | 20× faster |
| Load model from JSON | 85 µs | 2.06 ms | 24× faster |
| Load and predict in a new process | 166 ms | 1.40 s | 8.4× faster |

## Settings

The case declaration both libraries ran.

```json
{
  "kind": "map",
  "comparison": {
    "kind": "equivalent-objective",
    "evidenceId": "country-calendar-public-v1"
  },
  "configuration": {
    "growth": "flat",
    "scaling": "absmax",
    "seasonalityMode": "additive",
    "holidaysMode": "additive",
    "changepoints": {
      "mode": "auto",
      "count": 25,
      "range": 0.8
    },
    "changepointPriorScale": 0.05,
    "seasonalities": [],
    "events": [],
    "regressors": []
  },
  "pythonOptimizer": {
    "algorithm": "Auto",
    "maxIterations": 10000,
    "newtonFallback": true,
    "sigFigs": 12
  }
}
```